Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin jumped 52% after the announcement of an exclusive in-person dinner for the top tokenholders with US President Donald Trump

For some crypto advocates, this marks the end of the bear market, especially as Bitcoin (BTC) bounced back above $93,000

After a nearly 52% surge in Official Trump (TRUMP) on April 23 following the announcement of an exclusive in-person dinner for the top tokenholders with US President Donald Trump, some crypto advocates see it as a sign of the bear market finally ending, especially as Bitcoin (BTC) bounced back above $93,000. However, others are raising questions about the sustainability of the TRUMP memecoin rally.

From a performance perspective, the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin has been a disappointment after gaining over 740% on launch day, quickly eroding as investors realized the high token concentration and short-term vesting period. At first glance, it is difficult to justify TRUMP’s current market capitalization of $2.6 billion, considering that 80% of the supply was allocated to founders and entities controlled by Trump.

In comparison, well-established projects like Arbitrum (ARB), Jupiter (JUP), and Maker (MKR) have a capitalization below $1.6 billion. Those token valuations derive from buybacks using treasury reserves or direct benefits in staking and DeFi mechanisms. For example, Arbitrum, a leading Ethereum layer-2 scaling solution, has $2.4 billion in Total Value Locked (TVL).

Jupiter, the primary decentralized exchange (DEX) on Solana, handles $2.3 billion in deposits and has accrued $76.6 million in fees over the past 30 days, according to DefiLlama data. Meanwhile, Sky (formerly Maker), the project behind the successful DAI stablecoin, has $5.9 billion TVL and $28.6 million in 30-day fees.

TRUMP remains in the top 10 for trading activity

Besides being listed on major exchanges, including Binance, Bybit, OKX, Coinbase, Upbit, and Kraken, and often promoted on social media by Trump, the memecoin has an impressive share in derivatives markets. Notably, its futures open interest stands at $700 million, a top-10 overall.

Established projects with market capitalizations over $6 billion, such as Chainlink (LINK), Litecoin (LTC), and Polkadot (DOT), have smaller futures open interest than TRUMP. While demand for futures markets allows larger traders to participate, it does not necessarily indicate optimism as longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers) are matched at all times.

Despite currently trading 84% below its all-time high, TRUMP remains a top-10 token in terms of volume. In fact, excluding the stablecoins, only four cryptocurrencies surpassed TRUMP’s impressive $3.84 billion 24-hour turnover, according to CoinGecko data.

Despite the huge trading activity, a single promotional event with US President Trump is unlikely to create lasting demand for the TRUMP memecoin, putting the current $13.50 price tag in check. Unless the project alleviates investors’ concerns about token unlocks, there is little way to justify the 50% premium versus cryptocurrencies that offer utility and perspectives of growth.

It is worth noting that Shiba Inu (SHIB), another memecoin with no real utility, presently trades at an $8 billion market capitalization, so one could easily argue that a token officially supported by the sitting US President is worth far more, paving the way for $30 or higher price targets for TRUMP.