In Edwards, we used a multi-layer Transformer Encoder to learn the representations of the key elements in IVF process.
In Edwards, we used a multi-layer Transformer Encoder to learn the representations of the key elements in IVF process. These key elements included demographic data (more details shown in Table 1), treatment plans, hormone profiles, and follicular measurements (more details shown in Table 2), categorized and mapped into a lookup dictionary. We applied a self-supervised training method, Masked LM15, as the pre-training strategy. During the pre-training process, these elements were projected into a high-dimension trainable vectorized embedding space through the aforementioned lookup dictionary, the characteristics of each element, and the context of IVF process were thus captured and represented by the vectored embedding space and the parameters of the Transformer Encoder. The downstream tasks (e.g., predicted treatment plans, final outcomes of IVF cycles, etc) are addressed by fine-tuning the pre-trained model. In addition, we developed Edwards-Pro by integrating the knowledge-based decision support system proposed by our previous study7 into Edwards, in order to improve the accessibility of this approach, as well as to improve the predictions of treatment plans.
We used historical clinical data collected over almost ten years from New Hope Fertility Center (NHFC) to train and verify our approach. The clinical data including the aforementioned key elements were collected from patients’ monitoring in every visit. The dataset for training the deep learning model contained 30,552 IVF cycles with 239,047 monitoring visits from January 2013 to December 2021. Another dataset of 1,804 cycles containing 8,364 visits from January 2022 to July 2022 was used as the validation dataset. More details about the data preprocessing, model architecture, and training strategies are addressed in Section 4 and Figure 1.
Our approach provides predictions for two distinct phases in IVF COS cycles. Phase I focuses on key elements during monitoring visits, such as treatment plans, hormone profiles, and follicular measurements. Predictions for these elements in visit #n are based on all data from the previous #n-1 visits. Phase II targets the final outcomes of IVF cycles, such as MII rate, 2PN rate, and blastulation rate (more details shown in Table 3), predicted using data from the entire IVF cycle (Table 4).
Both phases were framed as classification tasks for two reasons: 1. Classification tasks align naturally with our approach, where key elements of the IVF process are categorized into data points for the training and validation datasets. 2. Clinically, REI specialists typically make decisions based on ranges of hormone profiles and follicular measurements rather than exact values. Additionally, the rates of MII, 2PN, and blastulation, defined as proportions of retrieved oocytes, are more accurate criteria for assessing IVF outcomes, as they correlate closely with patient factors such as age, ovarian reserve, and stimulation response.
We designed a targeted evaluation strategy for these two-phase predictions. For Phase I, which can be applied during any monitoring visit, we divided the 1,804 cycles in the validation dataset into 8,364 input sequences. In each sequence, data from visits beyond the predicted monitoring visit were excluded. For Phase II, we used the full dataset from each cycle, as final IVF outcomes depend on the entire ovarian stimulation process. To benchmark our deep learning model, we implemented traditional machine learning approaches referenced in prior studies6,8. Additionally, we developed a sequential learning baseline model-Sequence-to-Sequence (Seq2Seq)16, based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) units17, to assess our model’s ability to capture temporal features effectively.
The main distinction between Edwards-Pro and Edwards lies in Edwards-Pro’s enhanced ability to predict treatment plans; both models performed identically for other prediction categories. In nearly all treatment plan categories (Table 5), sequential learning models, including Seq2Seq, Edwards, and Edwards-Pro-outperformed traditional machine learning approaches, achieving improvements of at least 10% in average precision (AP), 14% in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and 4% in top-2 accuracy. The exception was the Follitropin category, which had an imbalanced label set; while AdaBoost achieved the best AP (93.0%), this was due to predicting only the dominant class. For categories linked to clinical judgment, such as Day# (next visit date), Follitropin (COS dosage), and oral contraceptives, Edwards-Pro improved Edwards’s performance by 2.9% (AP), 5.8% (AUROC), and 11.6% (top-2 accuracy). In clinical assessment-related predictions (Table 6), sequential learning models excelled across all categories except FSH and follicular measurements, both of which had imbalanced datasets similar to Follitropin. Conversely, for E
