The Impact of Tariffs on Bitcoin

This report unpacks the mechanisms behind this reaction, breaking down how tariffs work, their impact on inflation and capital markets, and why they are proving to be a bearish catalyst for Bitcoin.

It is likely not the direct effect of Tariffs that are crashing markets but the wider impact they may yet have on the US and global economy. Tariffs are not just trade policies; they are economic levers that influence inflation, interest rates, and investor behavior.

For better or for worse, BTC exists within the Dollar-Based Financial System. It is priced in US dollars, any shifts in dollar strength, interest strengths, or liquidity directly affect BTC’s purchasing power and attractiveness. BTC remains tied to the US economy and its currency. The current US tariff concerns are affecting crypto, tech stocks, and every major capital market.

This report unpacks the mechanisms behind this reaction, breaking down how tariffs work, their impact on inflation and capital markets, and why they are proving to be a bearish catalyst for Bitcoin.

The White House Is Pivoting Toward Economic Challenges After a Period of Stability

This view crystallized in the third week of March when President Trump, when asked by a reporter about the recessionary effects of the Tariffs, confirmed that they may force the U.S. economy into a ‘Period of Transition’.

Another new White House policy stream is also having an effect on digital asset prices. On January 23rd, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order that has the aim of “Strengthening American Leadership in ’Digital Financial Technology’”.

“The digital asset industry plays a crucial role in innovation and economic development in the United States, as well as our Nation’s international leadership,” the order explains.

“Protecting and promoting the ability of individual citizens and private-sector entities alike to access and use for lawful purposes open public blockchain networks without undue interference, censorship, or other restriction.” is an example of its goals. Most of the order is dedicated to establishing technology and rules around crypto and its development in the U.S.

One of its most important aspects is the creation of a presidential working group to consider a national digital asset stockpile, “potentially derived from cryptocurrencies lawfully seized by the Federal Government through its law enforcement efforts.” The EO created an immediate buzz and bullish momentum for digital assets.

“A U.S. Crypto Reserve will elevate this critical industry after years of corrupt attacks by the Biden Administration, which is why my Executive Order on Digital Assets directed the Presidential Working Group to move forward on a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes XRP, SOL, and ADA,” US President Trump expounded, on March 2nd, via the Truth Social media platform. This crystallized some of the outlines of the executive order. About an hour after the initial post, Trump clarified — “And, obviously, BTC and ETH, as other valuable cryptocurrencies, will be the heart of the Reserve. I also love Bitcoin and Ethereum!”

However, on Friday last week David Sacks, Trump’s AI and Crypto Czar, revealed that Trump’s comments were simply expository and not a firm commitment towards creating a reserve. This dampened much of the positive momentum that Trump’s initial post created.

Brave New Coin has previously covered the variety of factors that influence the price of BTC, including fundamental onchain metrics and miner activity.

The price of Bitcoin can be affected by regulatory decisions like the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, fundamental events like the halving which affects the flow of new BTC, and price movements that may be tied to historical price activity.

The most obvious and clear factor driving the price of BTC is demand to use it, which can be measured by adoption. Are people using BTC as an alternative for money? Is it being stored away for a rainy day like gold?

Is there a demand to use BTC, outside of money, because of the utility of an immutable ledger of accounts? An example of this is the Ordinals phenomenon.

What’s Driving Bitcoin Adoption in 2025

Bitcoin company River Financial in February 2025 published a report titled ‘What’s Driving Bitcoin Adoption in 2025’. Much of the report is focused on the recent growth of the Bitcoin network. It reports a surge in development activity, the decentralization of hashrate, and the increase in the usage of BTC for high-value transactions.

They note that in previous cycles accumulation was driven by individuals but in 2024 institutions and ETFs were the primary accumulators. They also report that 52% of the top 25 Hedge Funds and RIAs own BTC ETFs.

River reports that more public companies are holding BTC as treasury assets than ever before, larger-scale Bitcoin custody solutions are improving, and the list of nation-states embarking on BTC is growing rapidly.

There are clearly agents across the world who want to buy crypto and these adoption factors sit behind headline macro events like the Trump Tariffs or a crypto reserve. Brave New Coin has also discussed how much speculation is built into the price of Bitcoin because of optimism surrounding what it could be rather than what it is.

Today, in the short term, growth in BTC