HBAR Price Prediction: Will Hedera Break the Resistance and Reclaim Momentum?

Hedera's native token, HBAR, has faced a sharp decline after failing to breach the $0.40 resistance level. The altcoin recently retraced to $0.25

Hedera's native token, HBAR, encountered a strong resistance level at $0.40, hindering its further advance. This resistance proved too formidable, causing HBAR to retrace significantly from its recent highs and fall to $0.25. This steep drop left traders feeling uneasy.

Although this correction signaled bearish sentiment in the short term, the broader macro outlook remained bullish. However, for HBAR to regain momentum, it needed to navigate the growing hesitation among market participants.

A glance at the Futures market data reveals the market's response to HBAR's recent downturn. Open Interest, a measure of the total amount of futures contracts outstanding, stood at $216 million, indicating a sharp decline from $367 million just three days ago. This drop of $150 million highlighted the traders' hesitancy, with many traders choosing to close their positions.

This contraction in Open Interest suggested a shift toward bearish sentiment. Traders were moving out of leveraged positions, signaling decreased confidence in a near-term recovery. As a result, unless a resurgence in interest occurred, HBAR's price action could remain muted.

From a technical perspective, HBAR's macro momentum reflected a strengthening bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a technical indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to determine whether an asset is overbought or oversold, dropped to a three-month low, last seen in November 2024. Currently sitting below the neutral 50.0 level, this indicator highlighted increasing売り圧.

The falling RSI indicated that sellers were gaining control, making it more difficult for bulls to push prices higher. If this downward momentum continued, it could suppress any breakout attempts, keeping HBAR range-bound for an extended period.

Despite the short-term bearish pressure, HBAR was forming a macro bull flag pattern on the daily chart, a technical formation that is typically a precursor to substantial rallies. Should this setup play out, the altcoin could see a 684% surge, targeting $2.83. However, for this rally to materialize, HBAR must decisively breach the $0.40 resistance.

In the near term, the probability of an immediate breakout was low, as indicated by the flattening Open Interest and bearish RSI. However, a successful breach of $0.40 could fuel a rally toward $0.47, confirming a breakout from the bull flag pattern and paving the way for higher price targets.

The only way to invalidate this bullish outlook is for HBAR to fail to breach $0.40. This would likely result in the price continuing consolidation within the $0.25 to $0.40 range. If downward pressure intensifies, HBAR could lose support at $0.25, triggering a further decline toward $0.18.