Grayscale’s XRP ETF Filing Now Under Review, Market Eyes $3 Resistance Break

This milestone has fueled speculation about XRP's potential to break past previous highs, with investors closely watching regulatory developments and market sentiment.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially published Grayscale’s XRP ETF filing in the Federal Register, initiating a 240-day review process. The filing marks a significant step in the approval procedure, with a deadline set for October 18, 2025.

As part of the regulatory process, there will be a 21-day public comment period. Market participants are encouraged to submit their comments during this time.

Following the public comment period, the SEC will consider the proposal, taking into account concerns regarding investor protection, the health of the market, and securities law compliance before making a final decision.

The regulatory status of XRP is a major factor in the approval process. The SEC’s extended case against Ripple Labs, which hinges on whether XRP is a security, has left a cloud of uncertainty over the asset.

Moreover, the SEC has historically been conservative in approving altcoin ETFs due to concerns over market manipulation. However, recent legal and regulatory changes may improve the chances of approval.

XRP’s price has reacted positively to the ETF news, with traders anticipating a breakout above the key resistance level at $3.00. According to technical analysts, overcoming this barrier could trigger a substantial rally.

Crypto analyst Dark Defender has projected that XRP could first test $2.77 before making a push beyond $3.00. Another trader, CasiTrades, observed, “XRP continues to hold inside a corrective channel, which is typical for a Wave 4,” suggesting an approaching all-time high.

The institutional demand for XRP-denominated products has been a key driver of bullishness. In a first-ever occurrence, Brazil has authorized an XRP spot ETF, marking a substantial step toward institutional mainstream adoption.

Amidst these developments, there have been rumors of major institutions, such as Bank of America, experimenting with using XRP in cross-border transactions. While these rumors are yet to be confirmed, they have further contributed to the positive sentiment surrounding the digital currency.

The SEC is currently reviewing multiple XRP ETF applications, including Grayscale’s filing. On February 19, the agency acknowledged filings from CoinShares, Canary, and WisdomTree, which were submitted through major exchanges like Nasdaq and Cboe BZX.

The SEC’s recent decision to disband its crypto enforcement unit and reassign key personnel has also sparked discussion regarding the regulatory direction. Legal experts believe this restructuring may indicate a more lenient stance toward digital assets.

John Reed Stark, the former Chief of the SEC’s Office of Internet Enforcement, commented, “The SEC’s latest reorganization seems to be moving non-fraud crypto cases out of the crosshairs.”

This potential policy shift, coupled with pro-crypto sentiment in the current U.S. administration, has heightened expectations that regulatory hurdles for XRP and other digital assets could ease in the coming months.

According to market data, there is growing confidence in the likelihood of an XRP ETF approval. Polymarket, a predictions market website, currently shows an 81% chance of approval.

If approved, an XRP ETF would introduce massive liquidity and institutional inflows, potentially driving the price to new all-time highs.

Despite the optimism, some analysts remain cautious. Jackson Denka, CEO of Azura, stated, “Until we see real adoption and actual progress of XRP’s blockchain use cases, it is difficult to say whether this price surge is sustainable.”