Ethena (ENA) Experiences a 17% Price Uptick Following a Challenging Start to the Year

Despite some positive movement, ENA still faces major hurdles in securing a sustained breakout.

Ethena (ENA) has recently experienced a price uptick of 17%, following a challenging start to the year. However, this rise comes after significant losses that began early in 2025 and were exacerbated by a massive token unlock event in the last 48 hours.

While some positive movement has been detected, Ethena still faces major hurdles in securing a sustained breakout.

Ethena Encounters A Bearish Event

The market sentiment surrounding Ethena has been characterized by increased selling activity, especially in the days leading up to the March 5 token unlock. Within a 24-hour timeframe before the event, approximately 149 million ENA tokens, valued at around $60 million, were sold.

This selling pressure emerged as traders anticipated a surge in selling activity following the token unlock, which involved $833 million worth of tokens being unlocked. This event was expected to affect the supply-demand balance and ultimately drive down the price of ENA.

Token unlock events are often associated with price declines, as the influx of new tokens tends to dilute the value of existing ones. This dynamic has spooked many investors, particularly those who held large amounts of ENA, leading to a sharp rise in balances on exchanges. Many chose to sell in an effort to mitigate further losses, which in turn applied more downward pressure on the price.

Moreover, Ethena’s overall momentum has been negatively affected by the actions of long-term holders (LTHs). The Mean Coin Age (MCA) indicator has shown a significant decline, which signals that LTHs began liquidating their positions even before the broader market reacted.

As the primary holders of any cryptocurrency, LTHs are crucial for sustaining an asset’s value. Their selling behavior is usually a sign of weak sentiment toward the asset. Thus, the decrease in the MCA reflects the loss of confidence among these long-term holders, further affecting ENA’s price. When LTHs exit their positions, it usually signals that the market is not interested in holding for the long term, which can keep the price in a downtrend for an extended period.

ENA Price May Face Some Challenges

At the time of writing, Ethena’s price is trading at $0.404, just below the resistance level of $0.434. Despite a 17% rise, this move is not enough to reverse the broader downtrend. For ENA to break free of the current market conditions, it needs to breach the $0.434 barrier and sustain higher levels decisively.

If the bearish sentiment continues and the aforementioned factors worsen, Ehenea could see a decline toward the $0.326 support level. Should this support fail, further downside risk remains, with the price potentially slipping as low as $0.259, confirming the bearish outlook.

However, if investor sentiment shifts and there is an effort to accumulate ENA at these lower prices, a breakout could be in the works. A successful breach of $0.434, followed by a flip into support, would set ENA on a trajectory toward $0.602. This scenario would invalidate the bearish thesis and provide a path for long-term recovery.