Dogecoin (DOGE) Struggles to Hold Above $0.30 as TRUMP Token Encroaches on Market Share

Dogecoin (DOGE) has faced intense bearish pressure from multiple market catalysts, most notably the launch of Donald Trump's official token on Inauguration Day.

Dogecoin (DOGE) has faced immense selling pressure following the launch of Donald Trump's official token, impacting DOGE's market share and price movements.

As Inauguration Day approached, anticipation built for the launch of Trump's token, promising to revolutionize the crypto world. The announcement sent shockwaves through the market, with traders eager to capitalize on the hype surrounding the former president's venture.

The launch of the $TRUMP token on Inauguration Day had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. According to Coingecko, Dogecoin (DOGE) faced another day of price drops, with a 4.3% decrease. This aligns with the broader market sentiment, as the total memecoin market also saw a 7.8% downturn.

Other major meme coins also faced price corrections, as crypto markets took a breather following a week packed with major U.S. economic events, including the DeepSeek vs. OpenAI legal battle, tariff discussions, and Federal Reserve policy updates.

While the ongoing DOGE price decline aligns with overall market trends, TRUMP token's growing market share appears to be the key factor suppressing DOGE's momentum in the last week of January.

According to the latest data from Coingecko, Dogecoin currently holds a market cap of $46 billion, while TRUMP token sits at approximately $4 billion. However, trading volume tells a different story, with TRUMP token recording an impressive $3.1 billion in 24-hour trading volume compared to DOGE’s $1 billion.

This vast disparity in trading volume highlights the immense influence of the TRUMP token in the market, despite its recent launch. As a result, DOGE faces stiff competition for traders' attention and capital.

The Trading Volume to Market Cap Ratio (TVMC) indicates the level of liquidity and market activity surrounding a token. A higher TVMC suggests a more attractive trading environment, particularly for large investors.

In this case, TRUMP token's high TVMC showcases its appeal to traders, especially those operating at high frequencies. This shift in trader sentiment also points to a growing trend of investors pivoting away from legacy memecoins in favor of newer, high-momentum assets.

The increasing adoption of AI-driven trading and trend-based speculation further reinforces this migration.

Trump signed the bill creating D.O.G.E. department into law on January 21, less than 24 hours after taking office. The announcement initially spurred positive market sentiment, propelling Dogecoin above the $0.40 mark, before intense profit-taking ensued.

On Jan 31 Elon Musk-led D.O.G.E announced the first of wave of cost-cutting, saving US citizens over $1 billion within the agency’s first week.

“Reducing the federal deficit from $2T to $1T in FY2026 requires cutting an average of ~$4B/day in projected 2026 spending from now to Sept 30. That would still result in a ~$1T deficit, but economic growth should be able to match that number, which would mean no inflation in 2026. Super big deal.” – Elon Musk, Jan 31, 2025.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin spot prices have dropped by another 4.3% on Saturday, in line with a broader 7.8% memecoin market decline, signaling further downside risks. However, trading metrics in the Dogecoin derivatives market indicate a strong intent to defend the $0.30 support level.

Coinglass’ liquidation map provides insight into the distribution of leverage in active perpetual futures contracts. The data reveals that DOGE short positions, totaling $67 million, currently outpace long positions of $57 million, confirming a prevailing bearish sentiment.

However, a closer examination of the chart shows that bulls have concentrated over $22 million in active long positions around the $0.315 mark, which accounts for nearly 50% of the total leverage deployed.

If Dogecoin’s price dips below this level, these traders face the risk of forced liquidations. To prevent such an outcome, market participants holding these positions may engage in short-covering purchases in the spot market, thus supporting price stability.

With Elon Musk's latest announcement highlighting the D.O.G.E. department's success in saving Americans $1 billion per week, positive sentiment around Dogecoin could build momentum. If this narrative gains traction, DOGE could witness renewed interest, potentially catalyzing a bullish resurgence in the near future.

Dogecoin Price Forecast: $0.40 breakout unlikely as Elliott Wave Signals Reversal

The Dogecoin price forecast chart below shows a prolonged consolidation above the $0.30 mark, but technical indicators are signaling a pivotal moment for traders.

The Elliott Wave pattern on the chart highlights a completed corrective wave (a)-(b), indicating that