TON Coin’s “Darkest Moment”: Where is the bottom? When will the rebound come?

Ton Coin has plummeted 17% recently, poor on-chain indicators, failed ecological projects, whale sales have exacerbated downward pressure, and investors are full of uncertainty about its future.

Amid the turmoil of cryptocurrencies, Ton's recent performance has attracted particular attention. In the past week, its price has been like a kite with a broken string, swelling by 17%, and the market is filled with strong bearish sentiment. The highlights of the past are like passing clouds, and the current dilemma makes investors worried. So, how dark is the "darkest moment" of Ton coins? Where is the bottom? When will the rebound come? Next, let’s analyze in depth.

• TON blockchain’s daily transaction volume was once like a surging wave, up to 20 million, but now it is like a trickle, with only 2.2 million transactions per day, which means that users’ enthusiasm for participation has dropped sharply and their activity has dropped significantly.

• The number of monthly active wallets has not been spared, from 5.2 million in February to 2.8 million today, highlighting users' confidence in their ecosystem.

• The number of monthly active addresses fell from 8.3 million highs in September 2024 to 2.3 million, further confirming the sluggish user activity.

• Tokens within the TON ecosystem such as Hamster Kombat and Catizen have suffered Waterloo one after another, and prices have dropped sharply.

• These projects have been criticized for their improper execution of airdrops and the accusation of unfair reward distribution, which has caused strong frustration in the community and affected the overall ecological image of Ton Coin.

• The weekly decline in Ton coin prices is consistent with the market decline caused by Trump's tariffs. However, after the 90-day tariff suspension came into effect, most cryptocurrencies have shown light of recovery, while Ton is still hovering in the dark, with a daily decline of 1.92%, making its downward dilemma increasingly prominent, indicating that the problems it faces far exceed macroeconomic factors.

• In early April, whale activity surged sharply, and Ton was optimistic about breaking the resistance level of $3.95, making people look forward to it being able to rebound to $4.80. But the whale sold its positions and instantly broke its dream. A large number of selling orders poured in, and the price took a sharp turn for the worse.

• In just 8 days, Ton Coin fell 26.6%, an astonishing decline and market confidence suffered a heavy blow.

• As whales continue to adjust their positions, the average direction index (ADX) soars to 27, which shows that the bearish trend is increasing and the shorts are becoming stronger.

• Random oscillator has also entered the oversold zone, with various signs indicating that the Ton price may fall further, and analysts even predict that it may fall to the psychological support level of $2.00, which will drop by another 35% from the current price.

• Key figures such as Steve Yun of the TON Foundation are still full of confidence in the long-term potential of Ton Coin. Despite recent setbacks, they believe that TON network is resilient.

• Yun emphasized that TON blockchain is an independent and sustainable ecosystem that continues to attract developers’ attention, especially the development of the new programming languages Tolk and Tact, which injects vitality into its development.

• The integration of TON wallet and Telegram in 2023 is an important milestone, making Ton Coin famous and once ranked among the top ten cryptocurrencies. This successful case adds confidence to the optimists.

• The cruel reality is that even with the above-mentioned help, Ton Coin has lost more than 70% of its value since its June 2024 high, and currently ranks only 16th in market value, and its growth momentum is difficult to maintain.

• From the perspective of key support and resistance levels, Ton Coin currently faces key support levels of US$2.88 and US$2.68. If you can stick to it, there is still hope of rebound; if you lose it, it may continue to decline and the target price may reach US$2.37. While its resistance is at $3.88 and $4.12, the rise needs to break through these levels before it can achieve sustainable recovery.

• Given the recent sharp drop of 17%, as well as difficulties such as weak ecosystems and disrupted whale activities, the short-term prospects of Ton Coin are full of fog.

• The external market is still unstable due to factors such as Trump's tariffs. Whether Ton can break through resistance and stabilize above the key support level has become the focus of market attention.

• At present, investors and the market are staring at Ton Coin to see if it can stabilize at key support levels. If possible, the rebound or the permitted period; if not, the downward channel may continue to open.

• At the same time, whether it can break through the resistance level determines whether it can usher in a new round of rising market. The future trend is full of variables, and we need to continue to pay attention to market trends and changes in related indicators.