Crypto analyst Charting Guy (@ChartingGuy) has issued a cautionary note on Dogecoin, suggesting he will sell the meme coin if certain Fibonacci retracement levels fail to break

His statement arrives at a time when Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading around $0.20, according to the shared weekly chart on TradingView, showing a steep –14.94% weekly change.

Crypto analyst Charting Guy is putting Charting Guy noted that a series of key Fibonacci retracements run from 0.0 up to 1.618 at approximately $4.13.

Charting Guy noted that if DOGE “comes back and hits the 0.702 or 0.786 fib over the next few months and can’t break it,” then he plans to “sell majority if not all of bag.” He adds that his personal thesis calls for a major top in late April or early May, regardless of whether prices reach $0.30, $0.40, or even $1.00.

“Yes, this invalidates my bullish DOGE charts but I was going to sell anyway whether it’s at $0.30 or $1 late April,” Charting Guy remarked. He also notes a “key low” potentially landing in March 2026, adding: “Can’t make that up.”

Part of this analysis involves a potential repetition of what Tony “The Bull” Severino (@tonythebullBTC) has been referring to as the “XRP 2021 fractal,” where XRP remained largely range-bound and failed to push to new all-time highs during its specific cycle phase.

As Severino puts it, “Dogecoin continues to follow the XRP 2021 fractal.” He originally drew parallels last October, warning that DOGE might “pull an XRP this cycle,” showing how XRP traded pretty much sideways at a similar point in its market cycle.

However, analyst Sun (@Sunfire1126) objects to the notion of Dogecoin’s movement being a direct copy of XRP.

Analyst Sun notes that “most coins have done this move so far,” also citing other altcoins such as ADA and HBAR, both of which have stalled around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement or lower.

Charting Guy says he remains “open to the idea of it breaking” higher but is equally open to “another rejection.” Should the price fail at $0.33 (0.702 Fib) or $0.43 (0.786 Fib) by late April, he confirms his plan to exit the market.

When one user suggested he had turned bearish, Charting Guy clarifies: “No, if you learned to read, I plan on selling end of April whether this scenario plays out and it only gets to $0.30/$0.40, or whether my bullish scenarios play out and it makes a higher high.”

The shift in tone from Charting Guy is especially notable, as just two months ago he remained largely bullish on DOGE. In early January, he highlighted a wick down to $0.26—the 0.618 Fib—calling it an ideal buying opportunity.

Back then, he believed DOGE would avoid revisiting that zone and was “finally ready” for a next leg up, with $1 as a “minimum target” and $4 as the highest.

Since then, however, DOGE has stalled in attempts to break $0.30, and Charting Guy now leans on Fibonacci hurdles—$0.33 and $0.43—as the deciding factors on whether he will exit his position by late April or early May.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.20.