Coinbase Researchers Suggest That Crypto Prices May Find Their Floor in Mid-2025 Before a Wider Recovery

The Bitcoin (BTC) price trades below the 200-day moving average, signaling a bearish trend that puts traders on high alert. Furthermore, the COIN50 index dropped in several key metrics

Crypto prices may find their floor in mid-2025 before a wider recovery, Coinbase researchers suggest. Bitcoin (BTC) trades below the 200-day moving average, signaling a bearish trend that has traders on high alert. Additionally, the COIN50 index dropped in several key metrics, indicating caution in a range of altcoins.

As macro realities collide with crypto trends, a new Coinbase institutional report showcases the current market sentiments. According to the release, converging signals may be forming at the start of a crypto winter, as pessimistic outlooks outpace the bullish ones.

In 2024, Bitcoin encountered major obstacles to its potential uphill run. The crypto leader by market cap saw crashing prices that quickly spilled into altcoins. After reaching a new all-time high above $108k, the asset bowed to the macro trends as the stock market correlation continued.

As a result, Bitcoin recorded flash dips and sits at $83,700. The asset’s 200-day moving average shows a sharp decline, highlighting a bearish phase that kicked off in March after a previous deep. While the first quarter had its fair share of headwinds, Q2 2025 kicked off with President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which traders quickly priced in.

A Closer Look At The COIN50 Index

A closer look at the COIN50 index also displayed crashing trader sentiments, as assets have been trading in bearish zones since late February. This marks the end of speculations for an altcoin season, at least for the short term, as prices fell through multiple support levels. Back in January, altcoin bulls predicted a massive altcoin season that would fuel assets to multiple all-time highs.

“Indeed, this is consistent with the total crypto market cap (ex-BTC) falling by 41% from its December 2024 high to $950B, compared to a (less than) 20% decline in bitcoin over the same period. This disparity underscores the higher volatility and risk premium inherent to altcoins further down the risk curve… Thus, we think this warrants taking a defensive stance on risk for the time being.”

Crypto VC Funding Declines

The dwindling market cap lowered bullish expectations ahead of the second quarter. Meanwhile, institutional capital brought fresh shock to the market. In recent months, institutional funds have triggered massive asset growth, leading to mass adoption.

According to the report, crypto VC funding grew from the last quarter, but it’s still at a 60% low compared to the 2021/2022 cycle. A low capital inflow reduces investment and limits large accumulation for institutions. Overall, this delays market expectations for a bull cycle.