BTC Rally May Be Triggered by Dovish Language from Jerome Powell at the Upcoming Fed Meeting

The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is unlikely to deliver an interest rate cut, but any dovish language from Chair Jerome Powell could trigger a Bitcoin rally

The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is highly anticipated by investors, especially for any hints of an interest rate cut, which could be the catalyst for a Bitcoin rally, according to an analysis by QCP Capital.

However, the possibility of such a move is slim, as the report suggests.

The report highlights a major economic shift as the U.S. moves away from “fiscal dominance” toward deficit reduction under the Trump administration.

Global Liquidity Conditions Could Drive Next Bitcoin Move

The QCP analysis suggests that cryptocurrency prices historically lag behind shifts in global liquidity conditions.

This raises the possibility that Bitcoin could see a “renewed leg higher after this correction” in response to changing monetary environments worldwide.

«The lag in CCYTs [cryptocurrencies] is striking, especially in the case of BTC, which usually bottoms well after the apex in global liquidity conditions,» the report stated.

With a potential Federal Reserve pivot on the horizon and fresh stimulus injections from both Europe and China, the macro backdrop may be shifting in favor of risk assets.

The report highlights how Germany’s upcoming key vote and fiscal expansion plans, alongside similar measures in China, have powered stronger equity performance in these regions relative to the United States.

This divergence in economic policy approaches could influence capital flows across global markets in the coming months.

The report notes that market attention has temporarily shifted away from U.S. tariff headlines toward geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East.

This change in focus has benefited traditional safe-haven assets like gold, which have surged past $3,000, while Bitcoin has moved in the opposite direction.

“The buildup in geopolitical risk, especially in the Middle East, has also benefited traditional safe-haven assets like gold, which is now trading above $3k after a dotenvy strong move. This is in stark contrast to BTC, which has seen strong selling pressure despite the extreme fear in the markets and the complete absence of any good news in the past month,” the report stated.

The analysis also touched upon the implications of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, a scenario that QCP views as "highly unlikely."

However, any dovish signals from Chair Jerome Powell could be the decisive factor in sparking upside momentum for Bitcoin.

The current context for the Fed’s decision making has shifted considerably. The U.S. has moved away from fiscal dominance toward a greater focus on deficit reduction under the Trump administration.