BTC Market Structure Remains Bullish Despite Broader Market Sell-Off – Market Analysis

The good news is that BTC has yet to close a daily candle inside the TBO Cloud, maintaining a level of bullish structure despite increased volatility.

Bitcoin price remained largely unchanged over the past 24 hours, continuing to consolidate within the TBO Cloud on the 4-hour timeframe. The good news is that BTC has yet to close a daily candle inside the cloud, maintaining a level of bullish structure despite increased volatility. The bad news is that the broader market experienced another wave of selling pressure, with altcoins facing the brunt of it.

BTC has formed a new pennant pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, consolidating within the cloud, which suggests bullish accumulation. However, a break below $99k could trigger another cascade down to $90k, a scenario that would wipe out over-leveraged longs once again. Given the intensity of yesterday’s shakeout, this outcome appears less likely. Instead, BTC is expected to test overhead resistance, pull back slightly, and then attempt another breakout. If Senator Lummis successfully accelerates the creation of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR), BTC could surpass the $173k target for this year with ease.

A significant factor in recent selling pressure has been aggressive liquidation strategies from exchanges using Wintermute market makers. This has led to repeated sell-offs, frustrating traders who expected a smoother rally following recent bullish policy developments. Despite this, the bigger picture remains unchanged: the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve is a matter of time. The U.S. and other nation-states will inevitably allocate reserves to Bitcoin and other select digital assets. Several U.S. states are already in the process of making this happen, with approvals likely by the end of next month. Once this happens, game theory suggests that other nations will scramble to acquire the same assets as the U.S., creating additional upward pressure.

While ETH has been underwhelming in price performance and development, it has now entered a key accumulation zone around $3,100. Despite concerns about how the Ethereum Foundation operates, World Liberty Financial continues to acquire ETH, indicating confidence from institutional players. Though it remains undesirable from a relative strength perspective, its position as a top institutional pick cannot be ignored.

Stablecoin dominance appears to have peaked and is likely to decline back to 5% over the next five to seven days, a positive signal for broader risk appetite in crypto.

However, Bitcoin dominance is pushing toward 61%, applying continued downward pressure on altcoins. BTC.D’s daily RSI flipped into overbought territory at 76.20 but failed to reach or exceed its previous December high, suggesting a potential pause or slight pullback before another move higher. Ideally, BTC.D will form a double-top at 61%, which would be a bearish topping pattern and a bullish indicator for altcoins.

OTHERS.D, representing the broader altcoin market, has reached an optimal level for dollar-cost averaging. Daily RSI closed at 18.40 and appears set for an RSI Reset, a strong entry signal for conservative traders. The TOTAL crypto market cap managed to hold support despite RSI briefly piercing below it.

However, TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 have struggled, with TOTAL3 printing a TBO Close Long signal yesterday while fighting to maintain support. The most critical chart at this stage is OTHERS, which is still maintaining its bullish pennant structure despite two recent pierces below support. RSI is showing a strong bounce off of support, indicating underlying strength in the market.

BVOL7D, which tracks market volatility, continues to decline from its rejection zone. This signals that the extreme volatility-driven sell-offs are likely cooling off, providing the opportunity for altcoins to stabilize and stage a recovery. While BTC remains the focal point, attention should be on altcoins showing early signs of reversal, particularly those forming bullish divergence signals or reclaiming key support levels. As macro tailwinds—including the expected Bitcoin Strategic Reserve—continue to develop, crypto markets remain well-positioned for long-term appreciation despite the current turbulence.