BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Poised to Overtake Grayscale's GBTC as Largest Bitcoin Holder

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF is poised to surpass Grayscale's GBTC in Bitcoin holdings within three weeks, driven by its significant daily inflows of approximately $274 million, which translate to 4,120 new Bitcoin entering the fund daily. Grayscale's GBTC, with an estimated 350,252 BTC, has been experiencing average daily outflows of $277 million, or 4,140 BTC. If current trends continue, BlackRock could become the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin by April 11th, potentially even sooner if its inflows increase to the previous week's daily average of 7,200 Bitcoin.

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Poised to Surpass Grayscale's GBTC

BlackRock's recently launched spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is on track to eclipse Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in terms of Bitcoin holdings within the next three weeks, barring any significant shifts in current inflow and outflow trends.

As of March 22, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF held approximately 238,500 Bitcoin (BTC) worth $15.5 billion at current prices. Notably, the fund has been experiencing a robust average daily inflow of $274 million, equivalent to approximately 4,120 new Bitcoin entering the fund each day.

In contrast, Grayscale's GBTC reports holding an estimated 350,252 BTC, currently valued at $23 billion. However, GBTC has been grappling with an average daily outflow of $277 million or approximately 4,140 BTC over the past two weeks.

GBTC's outflows have accelerated in recent days, particularly last week, as depicted in data from FarSide Investors. If the current inflow and outflow rates remain relatively stable, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF is projected to overtake Grayscale in terms of total Bitcoin held by April 11.

This timeline could be accelerated if BlackRock's inflows were to revert to the prior week's daily average inflow of 7,200 Bitcoin, potentially leading to the shift occurring within 10 days.

"BlackRock is going to flip Grayscale soon," asserted YouTuber George Tung in a March 20 video on his CryptosRUs channel. "I say within the next two weeks — it's going to happen."

Should BlackRock surpass Grayscale, it would officially become the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin globally.

GBTC Outflows and Bitcoin Price Implications

On March 18, GBTC recorded a staggering $643 million in net outflows, marking its largest single-day outflow on record. While the outflows have moderated slightly in subsequent days, the elevated volume has prompted some analysts to caution about potential downward volatility in the price of Bitcoin.

However, Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, expressed limited concern regarding the GBTC-led outflows, predicting that the exodus could largely subside within the next few weeks. Balchunas further speculated that a significant portion of last week's outflows originated from bankruptcies of crypto firms, such as Genesis and Digital Currency Group, due to their "size and consistency."

BlackRock's Ascendance in the Bitcoin Landscape

On March 10, BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF officially surpassed MicroStrategy's holdings of the cryptocurrency. As of the time of publication, MicroStrategy holds 214,246 BTC after acquiring an additional 9,000 BTC on March 19.

BlackRock's entry into the Bitcoin ETF market has significantly boosted the legitimacy and accessibility of the cryptocurrency for institutional investors. The fund's rapid growth and potential to overtake Grayscale as the largest Bitcoin holder underscore the growing institutional appetite for digital assets.