Bitcoin/gold ratio shatters its historical records by nearing $3,000 an ounce, bitcoin wavers.

March 14, 2024, will remain a pivotal date. The Bitcoin/gold ratio has broken its upward support line, intact since 2012.

Bitcoin has been struggling as gold shatters historical records. Is the reign of “digital gold” threatened by the renewed luster of the precious metal?

Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling as gold edges closer to $3,000 an ounce, breaking new historical records. This move has also seen the Bitcoin/gold ratio, a symbolic pillar for twelve years in the crypto sphere, break its upward trend. A troubling sign for crypto enthusiasts.

But how did we get here? And what does this mean for the two assets in the current geopolitical and economic climate?

Bitcoin/gold: the break of a symbolic pillar

Monday, March 14, 2024, will remain a pivotal date. The Bitcoin/gold ratio has broken its upward support line, which has been in place since 2012. A technical fracture that is significant. Indeed, from a technical standpoint, bitcoin is losing its status as a safe haven against gold, at least in the short term.

For NorthStar, a well-known analyst on X (formerly Twitter), this break now creates a fractal similar to the one observed from March 2021 to March 2022, a period during which BTC experienced a 60% crash. Is a nightmarish scenario below $65,000 unfolding?

The Bitcoin/gold ratio is breaking a key support level, which could be a bearish signal. In addition, we can see that the ratio is currently in a downward trend, which is also bearish.

The zoom out shows that the ratio has been in an uptrend since 2012. However, this trend seems to have come to an end in recent months.

The implication of this is that bitcoin is rapidly losing its gains against gold. This could be due to a number of factors, such as the increasing risk aversion among investors.

As the macro environment deteriorates, investors are turning to safe-haven assets like gold.

The world is entering a period of great economic and political uncertainty. The war in Ukraine, the climate crisis, and the threat of nuclear war are just some of the challenges that we face.

The capital exodus: a symptom of structural distrust

The figures speak for themselves. Since January 2025, Gold ETFs have siphoned an astounding $23.18 billion in global inflows.

Among them, American investors alone contributed $6.48 billion to this "yellow metal" rally, a record pace.

At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net outflow of $1.46 billion. A striking contrast that underscores the bipolar nature of market sentiment.

What explains this capital exodus from BTC, usually a sign of liquidity stress?

Trumpist policies are heating up the markets. Tariffs against China and Mexico have rekindled fears of 2018, pushing up inflation and boding ill for a possible recession.

As a result, investors are withdrawing from volatile assets to seek refuge in gold, whose physical reserves offer a point of attachment in a fractured world. Bitcoin, often seen as a speculative asset, is paying the price for its immaturity.

To make matters worse, BTC's liquidity is becoming its Achilles' heel. Massive ETF outflows are creating a snowball effect: less capital leads to less stability.

Furthermore, Glassnode points out that new investors have already lost $100 million in six weeks as they are quickly enticed and then abandon the asset due to repeated corrections. A vicious cycle that painfully recalls past crashes.

The bottom line: the Bitcoin/gold ratio breaking and ETFs hemorrhaging paint a bleak picture, but not necessarily irreversible. Bitcoin has survived far worse crises. Its volatility, a double-edged sword, could propel it to new highs just as quickly.