Bitcoin Could Surpass $109,000 Sooner Than Expected, Analyst Predicts

Despite the recent volatility in U.S. macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin could break past its all-time high of $109,000 sooner than anticipated

Bitcoin price could reach new all-time highs sooner than expected, according to Jamie Coutts, the chief crypto analyst at Real Vision.

Despite the recent volatility in U.S. macroeconomic conditions, which may delay BTC’s performance, Coutts thinks that the flagship cryptocurrency may hit new all-time highs before the second quarter ends,

Bitcoin’s Short-Term Price Forecast

At the time of press, BTC was trading at around $85,880, showing a 3.16% decrease over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.

Coutts was keeping a close eye on recent moves in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which, according to historical trends, made him bullish on Bitcoin’s future performance.

"We're looking at a worst-case scenario of $102,000 and a best-case scenario of $123,000 by June 1," he said.

The upper target would represent a 13% gain over Bitcoin’s current all-time high of $109,000, which was reached on January 20.

Bitcoin’s Potential as a Hedge in a Recession

BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, also expressed optimism about BTC performance in a recessionary environment.

In a March 19 interview with Yahoo Finance, Mitchnick suggested that while it’s uncertain whether a recession will occur, a recession could serve as a significant catalyst for the growth of the cryptocurrency.

"I think it's still an open question whether we're going to have a recession. Certainly, if we do, I think it could help crypto adoption grow more quickly," Mitchnick said.

Bitcoin: Recent Downturn Linked to Trump’s Tariffs

Recently, Bitcoin experienced a downturn, falling below the $100,000 mark on February 2.

Many market participants have pointed to the new tariffs imposed by Trump and concerns over U.S. interest rates as the driving factors behind the price drop. However, Coutts remains optimistic about BTC prospects, predicting a rebound fueled by a combination of easing financial conditions, a weakening U.S. dollar, and increased liquidity from the People’s Bank of China since early 2025.

“The market may be underestimating how quickly Bitcoin could surge,” Coutts said. He also pointed out that financial conditions had eased dramatically in the past month, citing the third-largest three-day decline of the U.S. dollar since 2015 and significant drops in rates and Treasury bond volatility. “Liquidity remains central to investing in all asset classes.”

Weak Bitcoin Market Signals Possible Continued Bearish Conditions

While some analysts remain hopeful about Bitcoin’s potential, others point to indicators suggesting weak market conditions.

According to CryptoQuant, BTC is currently experiencing its “least bullish conditions” since January 2023. The firm’s Bull Score Index has dropped to 20, its lowest point since January 2023, signaling a weak Bitcoin market with limited potential for a strong rally in the short term.

If the score remains below 40 for an extended period, it could indicate continued bearish market conditions, similar to those seen during previous bear market phases. For instance, during the 2018 bear market, the index fell below 40 in November 2018 and remained below this level until December 2019, indicating a prolonged period of bearish momentum.

In conclusion, despite the mixed signals, some market intelligence firms remain optimistic about Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs in the coming months. However, the current weak market sentiment and potential macroeconomic challenges could delay or hinder this bullish outlook.