Bitcoin's recent 10% retracement has dampened demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analysts at JP Morgan anticipate a price decline post-halving, citing diminishing ETF flows and sustained CME Bitcoin futures open interest. The asset's price has fallen to $64,212, a 1.94% decrease, echoing JP Morgan's bearish outlook predicting a drift towards $42,000. Despite its record high of $73,798 in March, investor enthusiasm is waning, potentially leading to a decline below $50,000 if interest does not pick up post-halving.
Bitcoin's Post-All-Time High Deceleration Raises Concerns for Spot ETFs and Price Stability
Amidst a surge to its all-time high on March 14th, Bitcoin has retraced a significant 10%, prompting a reassessment of investor appetite for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and raising concerns about the potential impact of Bitcoin's upcoming halving event.
JP Morgan Chase & Co. analysts have expressed apprehension about a possible further price decline following the halving, which is scheduled for April. The halving event is expected to reduce the supply of newly minted Bitcoins into circulation, potentially triggering a supply shock that could affect the currency's price trajectory.
Data analysis reveals that ten-spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced their most substantial three-day outflow since their inception on January 11th, 2024. This outflow, coupled with a significant price decline, has placed Bitcoin on track for one of its worst weeks of the year. As of 6:57 a.m. GMT on March 22nd, Bitcoin's value had dropped to $65,415, with a further decline to $64,212.00 USD at 7:59 p.m. GMT, indicating a 1.94% decrease in price.
JP Morgan strategists have reiterated their February prediction of a potential decline in Bitcoin's price due to the halving event and the presence of sustained open interest in CME Bitcoin futures, alongside declining ETF flows. The bank's bearish outlook anticipates a post-halving price drift to around $42,000.
The recent outflows from ETFs, including the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, amounting to approximately $836 million, suggest a moderation in investor enthusiasm. This trend has raised concerns among some experts, who warn that if the current interest wanes, Bitcoin's price could potentially fall below $50,000 post-halving.
Despite Bitcoin's record high in March, the decline in retail trader interest has cast a shadow over the asset's future trajectory. Analysts and investors alike are monitoring the market closely, mindful of the potential impact of the halving event and the need for sustained interest to maintain Bitcoin's stability.
