Why Is The Bitcoin Network Activity Falling?

The latest on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin network activity has been waning over the past few months, with the blockchain metric reaching a new low recently.

On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin network activity has been waning over the past few months, reaching a new low recently.

Why Is The Bitcoin Network Activity Falling?

In a recent post on the X platform, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno discussed how Bitcoin is experiencing an unusual period of low transaction activity, with the mempool being almost empty and transaction fees dropping to 1 sat/vB. This marks the lowest level of network activity since March 2024, indicating a significant decline in on-chain demand.

To provide some context, the mempool is a temporary storage area where pending Bitcoin transactions await processing. During periods of high on-chain demand and network activity, the mempool is usually congested. However, recent on-chain data shows that most transactions have been confirmed, leaving the mempool nearly empty.

An almost-empty mempool is a rare occurrence that is often linked to either waning on-chain activity or shifting market dynamics. According to Moreno, the main factor contributing to this decline is the fading excitement around Runes and BRC-20 tokens.

Both Runes and the BRC-20 token standard are protocols that enable the creation and minting of fungible and non-fungible tokens on the Bitcoin blockchain. While these protocols generated significant hype upon launch, the initial excitement failed to translate into sustained usage.

However, at the peak of the Runes and BRC-20 frenzy, the number of confirmed transactions on the Bitcoin network reached a record high, crossing the 1.5 million mark in a single day. To be precise, the pioneer blockchain processed over 1.6 million unique transactions between sender and receivers on April 23, 2024, largely driven by the launch of Bitcoin Runes.

This decline in transaction volume has broader implications for various aspects of the pioneer blockchain, including miner revenues. Miners also earn transaction fees as an additional source of income, especially since block rewards have been further reduced following the recent halving event. Therefore, an extended period of low fees could impact mining profitability, potentially influencing the distribution of network hash rate.

How Does It Affect BTC Price?

An almost-empty mempool and low transaction activity are not ideal indicators for positive price movements. It could suggest a lack of speculative interest and enthusiasm among investors, leading to a stagnation in the Bitcoin price.

At the time of writing, BTC is valued at around $100,450, having experienced a decline of nearly 2% in the past 24 hours. According to CoinGeko data, the premier cryptocurrency has lost roughly 3.5% of its value in the last seven days.