Bitcoin Bull Cycle Not Over Yet, Analyst Says

Bitcoin has struggled to break the $100,000 mark since early February amid recent market volatility that has left the leading coin in a holding pattern.

Bitcoin’s bull cycle may still be raging on, with two indicators suggesting that the leading coin’s price could continue to rise.

According to CryptoQuant’s pseudonymous analyst MAC_D, two crucial on-chain metrics point towards a bullish uptrend for BTC.

In a recent analysis, the analyst highlights the realized market capitalization and the proportion of coins held by long-term holders (LTHs) as key indicators.

Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization, which calculates the coin’s total value at the price it last moved, has reached an all-time high of $857 billion. This metric is crucial as it reflects the value held by long-term investors and the cost basis of the coins in circulation.

When BTC’s realized market cap rises like this, it indicates that long-term investors, such as those who have held their coins for over a year, are continuing to hold on. It also suggests that the coins that have changed hands recently are doing so at increasingly higher prices. This is usually seen as a sign of confidence in Bitcoin’s future value.

With more coins being held at higher prices, it can reduce selling pressure from LTHs. They are unlikely to sell unless the coin’s value reaches levels well above their acquisition cost. This can reduce the downward pressure on the coin and could lead to more upward momentum in the short term.

This trend is further confirmed by the increasing proportion of coins being held by BTC’s LTHs.

“At the previous cycle’s price peak, their proportion was 15.66%, while it currently stands at 39.74%. This suggests that the market likely hasn’t reached its peak yet, considering the previous cycle’s ratio,” MACD_D writes.

This increase suggests that long-term investors now hold a significant portion of Bitcoin. Given that the previous cycle’s price peak occurred when the ratio was much lower, the current ratio suggests there’s still room for price growth before reaching a cycle top.

BTC Price Now, What’s Next?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $96,834, resting above the support level at $95,513. A sustained increase in coins held by LTHs could drive BTC towards the next resistance at $98,118.

If this key resistance is breached, BTC could surge past $100,000, signaling a new phase in the bull run.

However, if profit-taking intensifies, this bullish outlook may be invalidated. In that case, BTC’s price could dip below the $95,513 support, potentially falling to the next level at $91,473.