Bitcoin (BTC) Traders Prepare for the Expiration of a Historic Monthly Option

Bitcoin (BTC) traders are preparing for the expiration of a historic monthly option. On March 28, $16.5 Billion in open interest is set to be settled.

Bitcoin traders are gearing up for the expiration of a historic monthly options series on March 28, which will see $16.5 Billion in open interest settled.

At the upcoming expiry, which sees bulls and bears clashing around the $90,000 level as the tide shifts, buyers are aiming to push BTC higher. Meanwhile, sellers are focused on regaining control below $84,000.

The massive expiry is putting pressure on both sides to influence the market.

According to Laevitas, $10.5 Billion in call (buy) options and $6 Billion in put (sell) options are set to expire. However, nearly $7.6 Billion of those calls will require Bitcoin to rise above $92,000 to become profitable.

With BTC currently trading around $86,000, it places the majority of the most bullish positions out of the money.

If the token manages to stay above around $86,500 at expiry, only $2 Billion in put options will remain active.

But, a drop below $84,000 could see that figure increase to $2.6 Billion—giving the bears a stronger hand heading into expiry. This creates a small and volatile price zone, which is likely to see both sides pushing the spot price ahead of Friday’s close.

Bitcoin struggles under key resistance

After reaching a high of $88,752 on March 24, Bitcoin has failed to break through the $88,000 barrier.

The 1-hour chart shows a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicating weakness in the asset’s short-term trend.

Those short-term price movements are also putting pressure on those holding onto Bitcoin for less than 15 days.

According to Glassnode’s “Week On-chain” report, short-term holders (STHs) are now sitting on 3.4 million BTC in unrealized losses.

That’s the highest volume of STH-held supply in loss since July 2018. It’s also a significant increase from the 2.4 million BTC in unrealized loss reported last month.

The report also highlighted that Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score remains low, at less than 0.1, indicating strong selling pressure.

Onchain transfer volumes decreased by 47% to $5.2 Billion daily. At the same time, active addresses decreased by 18% from 950,000 in November 2024 to 780,000.

This signals a decrease in both large-scale and small-scale trading activity within the Bitcoin network.

What are the bulls saying?

Although liquidity is drying up and short-term holders are facing losses, bullish traders still see a path for a rebound.

Their optimism is focused on a potential catalyst for an uptrend, which could be triggered by central bank monetary expansion or renewed institutional demand.

The integration of cryptocurrency assets by companies like GameStop (NYSE:GME), which recently announced adding Bitcoin (BTC) to its treasury, is another point of contention.

Recently, GameStop (GME) and Rumble (NASDAQ:RUM) announced plans to invest in Bitcoin, while Japan-listed Metaplanet (TYO:3350) has also added the token to its balance sheet.

On the technical side, trader Batman spotted a $39 Million cluster of short liquidations pending around $89,000 on Binance.

“Liquidity drives the market,” he said, adding that the area could see a "beastial" move if it’s tested.

Paxton, meanwhile, pointed to a breakout from a pennant pattern on the 4-hour chart.

“We’ll watch its next move to call the trend.”

Bitcoin traders brace for post-expiry shakeout

With $16.5 Billion in open interest set to expire at the end of March and traders expecting a surge in volatility as we approach the event.

The next 48 hours will be crucial in determining the fate of Bitcoin and its direction in April.

Pointing out the weakness in the candlesticks and the strong selling pressure, Altcoin Sherpa shared his thoughts on the short-term outlook for Bitcoin.

He highlighted that the weekly structure still favors bears unless Bitcoin manages to close above the $90,000 zone.

“Not great at all. Still see more potential for downside in this ST timeframe.”

According to another trader, who specializes in technical analysis, Ben; a breakout above $89,000 could propel Bitcoin towards the $93,000 to $96,000 price levels.

He also noted that the 200-day exponential moving average, currently at $85,570, is providing