Bitcoin (BTC) Remains on Track to Surpass $1.8M by 2035 Despite Recent Price Corrections

Bitcoin remains on track to surpass $1.8 million by 2035 despite recent price corrections and waning investor appetite caused by ongoing global trade tensions

Bitcoin (BTC) is still on track to reach $1.8 million by 2035 despite recent price corrections and waning investor appetite due to ongoing global trade tensions, according to Joe Burnett, director of market research at Unchained.

Speaking during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live show on X, Burnett said that Bitcoin is still in a long-term bullish cycle and could potentially rival or surpass gold’s $21 trillion market capitalization within the next decade.

“When I think about where Bitcoin will be in 10 years, there are two models I admire,” Burnett said. “One is the parallel model, which suggests that Bitcoin will be about $1.8 million in 2035.”

“The other is Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin 24 model, which suggests Bitcoin will be $2.1 million by 2035. Both are good base cases, and we could see Bitcoin go higher or lower from there, depending on broader macroeconomic factors.”

Both models take into account the rate at which Bitcoin’s price has increased in recent years, as well as the rate at which the global economy is expected to grow.

“The automobile industry is significantly more valuable than the horse and buggy industry, and Bitcoin’s more advanced technological properties will make it surpass the $21 trillion market capitalization of gold,” he said.

But investors are now largely limiting their risk appetite due to uncertainty over tariffs, which could affect investment returns.

After U.S. President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration, global markets have been pressured by rising trade war fears.

After entering office, Trump threatened to introduce sweeping import tariffs in a bid to reduce the country’s trade deficit, putting pressure on risk sentiment for both equities and crypto.

While Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset may now come to the fore amid ongoing trade war concerns, physical gold and tokenized gold remain the current winners.

Indeed, tariff fears saw tokenized gold trading volume surge to a two-year high this week, exceeding $1 billion for the first time since the U.S. banking crisis in 2023, as reported by Cointelegraph on April 10.

The volume of tokenized gold futures traded on major crypto exchange FTX this week reached $1.04 billion, the highest since the start of 2021.

The rising volume follows a broader trend of investors seeking safe-haven assets amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, sparked by the U.S. government’s efforts to reduce the trade deficit through tariffs.

Bitcoin volatility falls in bear and bull

During bear markets, Bitcoin’s volatility is falling, signaling its growing maturity as an asset class.

Another 80% drawdown during future bear markets is still possible, but this will act as a robust acquisition period for the “strongest” holders, Burnett said.

“If you can hold Bitcoin through a bear market, you’ll come out stronger on the other side. We saw this during the 2018 bear market, where those who sold early regretted it later during the bull market.”

However, another 80% drawdown from the 2024 bear market will see BTC fall to around $17,000, which is still a significant sum for most investors to lose.

Despite this, researchers at Unchained are optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects for the next decade.

BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer Arthur Hayes predicted that Bitcoin could rise to $250,000 by the end of 2025 if the U.S. Federal Reserve formally enters a quantitative easing cycle.

Despite the optimistic predictions, investors remain cautious and are continuing to “rebalance their portfolios” but are unlikely to take on significant positions in the next 90 days before markets gain more clarity on global tariff negotiations, Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at real-world asset tokenization platform Brickken, told Cointelegraph.

“With money flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs, investors are looking for safer spots to hold their cash right now, including strong currencies. Gold’s a traditional vehicle in these cases and a go-to when markets are uncertain,” he added.

Since the start of 2025, the price of gold has risen over 23%, outperforming Bitcoin, which has fallen by more than 10% year-to-date, TradingView data shows.