Bitcoin (BTC) Has Rebounded by 200% in Just a Few Days. But the Risks Remain

The market for CME futures contracts shows a record gap of $85,000, a rare technical anomaly. This gap, comparable to an air pocket in prices, acts as a magnet for the rates.

Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded sharply by 20% in just a few days, but behind this spectacular display of volatility lurk insidious risks. Between political euphoria, technical anomalies, and conflicting signals, the king of cryptos is navigating a minefield. Here are five key elements to decode this critical phase.

The CME Spread and the Trump Effect: An Explosive Cocktail

The market for CME futures contracts shows a record gap of $85,000, a rare technical anomaly. This gap, like an air pocket in prices, acts as a magnet for the rates.

For legendary analyst Peter Brandt, this historical “hole” could trigger a brutal correction if prices return to fill the void. A perspective that recalls the liquidation cascades of June, when Bitcoin lost 30% in two weeks.

The current rebound coincides with statements from Donald Trump, who mentioned a “strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies” ahead of the first White House summit on the sector.

While this political support has galvanized buyers, some see it as a trap. “The announcements remain vague, and whales could take advantage of the emotion to liquidate their positions,” notes an anonymous trader.

This week will crystallize the risks: speeches from Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Fed, and data on American employment will test Bitcoin’s resilience.

A rise in rates or robust economic indicators could strengthen the dollar, asphyxiating risky assets. The timing of the crypto summit will also be decisive: it could either legitimize the rebound or reveal its artifice.

Conflicting Signals from the Crypto Market: Between Euphoria and Caution

On-chain data shows a clear improvement: the profitability of Bitcoin addresses has surged, and outflows from exchanges suggest a resumption of accumulation.

However, Sentiment, an analysis platform, tempers optimism: “Institutional investors remain on the sidelines. This movement resembles a technical rebound more than a trend reversal.”

Traders are closely watching the $90,000-$91,000 range, the former floor of recent months. “If Bitcoin closes below, the drop could be rapid towards $85,000,” warns Daan Crypto Trades.

Mark Cullen adds: “Liquidity around $95,000 attracts prices, but a return to $85,000 to fill the CME gap would be a heavy blow.” These levels highlight the precarious balance between buyers and sellers.

The rebound has generated a daily candle of $10,000 in some markets, triggering massive liquidations of short positions. But this enthusiasm masks a reality: volumes remain lower than those of May, and open interest is stagnant. “Without an influx of fresh capital, this rally lacks fuel,” analyzes a crypto fund manager.

As the eyes turn to the Fed and the White House, Bitcoin embodies more than ever a battle between political narratives and market mechanics. Each announcement, each economic data point, can tilt the balance.

Bitcoin dances on a volcano. Between the CME gap, the Trump effect, and macro indicators, the risks of correction are palpable. Seasoned traders know this: a 20% rebound is not enough to bury a bear market. The $90,000 zone remains crucial. If it gives way, the drop to $85,000 — or even lower — would become unavoidable. In this era of FUD and FOMO, a strategy of caution is essential. Will the king of cryptos survive this ordeal? The answer will come in the coming days as volatility has not said its last word despite the critical point reached.