Bitcoin (BTC) Price Has Historically Bounced From This On-Chain Level; How Far the Asset Is Currently From the Line

A Bitcoin on-chain level has historically served as the boundary for bear markets. Here's how far the asset's price is currently from this line.

Bitcoin Is Above Realized Price Of All Cohorts, Suggesting Bullish Momentum

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has shared some interesting insights regarding where the Realized Price currently stands for some of the important Bitcoin investor groups.

The “Realized Price” in this context is an on-chain indicator that tracks the average cost basis of BTC holders throughout the network. When the spot price is trading above this metric, it generally indicates that the holders are in a state of profit, whereas the metric being higher suggests the dominance of loss.

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Here’s a chart shared by Young Ju, showing the trend in the Realized Price for four Bitcoin cohorts:

Bitcoin Cohorts' Average Cost Basis Chart

As you can see in the above graph, Bitcoin is currently trading above the Realized Price of all of these groups, suggesting that their members are sitting on some unrealized gains.

Historically, the average cost basis of these cohorts has held some significance for the cryptocurrency. From the chart, it’s evident that the price has generally followed a bullish trajectory whenever it has been above the New Whales’ (colored in orange) Realized Price.

The New Whales, also known as the Short-Term Holder Whales, are BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days and are holding more than 1,000 BTC. The Realized Price for this cohort is currently at $89,300, which could put BTC at risk of retesting it in the coming days if the bearish trajectory continues.

However, a potential dip below this level wouldn’t immediately signal a shift toward a bear market; it would only indicate a lack of momentum behind Bitcoin. The level that BTC may have to avoid falling under in order to avoid a bearish regime is the Miner Whales (green).

The Miner Whales are the wallets of mining companies that hold over 1,000 BTC. According to the CryptoQuant founder, BTC’s plunges below this mark during the last couple of cycles have led to bear markets.

Currently, the Realized Price for the Miner Whales is at $58,000. From the current price, Bitcoin would have to undergo a drawdown of nearly 40% to approach a retest of this line. If the level will indeed once again act as a boundary for the bear market in this cycle, then BTC may be considered at a safe distance for now.

While the asset tends to see breaks both above and below the cost basis of three of the cohorts over the course of a cycle, it has never broken under the Realized Price of the fourth group, the Old Whales or Long-Term Holder Whales.

These whales, who have been holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, have their average acquisition level at around $26,000 right now.

BTC Price

Bitcoin saw a drop below the $94,000 level yesterday, but the coin seems to have already found a rebound, as its price is now back at $96,200.