Bitcoin (BTC) Price Index (DVOL) Drops, Signaling Maturation as an Asset

Cryptocurrency investors seem to be adopting a “wait-and-see” approach to the plethora of conflicting headlines appearing. As a result, the BTC Volatility

Cryptocurrency investors seem to be adopting a “wait-and-see” approach to the plethora of conflicting headlines appearing. As a result, the BTC Volatility Index (DVOL) on popular options exchange Deribit has been dropping since Jan. 20, falling from a high of 72 to around 50.8.

The drop signals bitcoin's maturation as an asset, according to Tracy Jin, COO of cryptocurrency trading platform MEXC. "Rather than reacting sharply to short-term market shocks, BTC is showing signs of stabilization, increasingly resembling the dynamics of commodity markets and traditional safe-haven assets,” Jin said.

While FTX creditor payouts have started rolling out, the Libra token debacle just keeps intensifying. The co-creator of the token, Hayden Davis, bragged about buying access to Argentine President Javier Milei’s inner circle ahead of the memecoin’s launch, according to messages reviewed by CoinDesk.

Meanwhile, Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, is set to raise an additional $2 billion by selling zero-coupon convertible notes. The funds raised will mostly be used to accumulate more BTC.

As Brevan Howard Digital’s CEO and CIO — that's just one person — stressed at Consensus Hong Kong, the cryptocurrency ecosystem has evolved since the collapse of FTX, but 24/7 risk management is still a necessity.

On the macro front, traders are focusing on minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January interest rate meeting. Indications of the potential impact of increased tariffs are a particular point of focus, given President Donald Trump's comments on tariffs “in the neighborhood of 25% for automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical products.”

Recent U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh have led to the appointing of teams to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine and commitments to “normalize the operation” of their diplomatic missions. Still, excluding representatives from Ukraine and Europe remains a point of contention. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:

Feb. 19, 9:30 a.m.: Shares of bitcoin-focused financial services company Fold Holdings (FLD) begin trading on Nasdaq.

Feb. 19: High-performance blockchain Monad's public testnet launches.

Feb. 19, 11:00 a.m.: The first official State of Sei (SEI) livestream.

Feb. 19, 1:00 p.m.: Hedera (HBAR) mainnet upgrade to v0.58.

Feb. 21: TON (The Open Network) becomes the exclusive blockchain infrastructure for messaging platform Telegram's Mini App ecosystem.

Feb. 24: At epoch 115968, testing of Ethereum's Pecta upgrade on the Holesky testnet begins.

Macro

Feb. 19, 2:00 p.m.: The Fed releases minutes of the Jan. 28-29 FOMC Meeting.

Feb. 20, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada reports January's producer price inflation data.

PPI MoM Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. 0.2%

PPI YoY Prev. 4.1%

Feb. 20, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report for the week ended Feb. 15.

Initial Jobless Claims Est. 215K vs. Prev. 213K

Feb. 20, 5:00 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech titled "Navigating Inflation Waves While Riding on the Phillips Curve" in Washington. (Livestream link.)

Feb. 20, 6:30 p.m.: Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications reports January's consumer price inflation data.

Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.1% vs. Prev. 3%

Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.6%

Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.6%

Earnings

Feb. 20: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.88

Feb. 24: Riot Platforms (RRIOT), post-market, $-0.18

Feb. 25: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, $-0.53

Feb. 25: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, $-0.09

Feb. 26: MARA Holdings (MMARA), post-market, $-0.13

Token Events

Governance

Compound DAO is discussing evolving Compound Sandbox into Compound V4 to introduce streamlined governance, dynamic market parameters, enhanced liquidation mechanisms, and improved cross-chain reward distribution.

Aave DAO is considering