Bitcoin (BTC) Miners Capitulate, Giving Classic Local Bottom Signs as Miners Face a New “Capitulation” Phase, Data Reveals

The hash ribbon is a well-known leading indicator of incoming BTC price reversals at local lows.

Bitcoin (BTC) miner capitulation is back in the spotlight after a key technical indicator signaled a potential turning point for the first time in several months.

Bitcoin miners are once again increasing their BTC exposure, data suggests, despite the recent sell-off in the market.

After a sell-off in Bitcoin (BTC) left miner capitulation in the spotlight, data now reveals that miners may be adding to their BTC exposure.

On Feb. 10, analytics account Bitcoindata21 highlighted a “triggering” turnaround for Bitcoin’s hash ribbons indicator.

The hash ribbons is a well-known leading indicator of incoming BTC price reversals at local lows. When the 30-day moving average of hashrate dips below its 60-day equivalent, miners are perceived to be experiencing “capitulation” — or as Bitcoindata21 observes, “when Bitcoin becomes too expensive to mine relative to the cost of mining.”

Such events are rare and tend to precede periods of proptracted BTC price upside.

“The Hash Ribbon indicates that the worst of the miner capitulation is over when the 30d MA of the hashrate crosses above the 60d MA (switch from light red to dark red areas),” the X post explains alongside a chart from onchain analytics firm Glassnode.

The last miner capitulation phase occurred in mid-October 2024, just before BTC/USD advanced beyond old all-time highs of ,800 to reach ,00 two months later.

Bitcoin hash ribbon chart. Source: GlassnodeDarkfost, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, described the hash ribbons as a “reliable signal” for market entries.

“Notably, It has only missed once due to the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 market shock,” he wrote in a Quicktake blog post on Feb. 11.

“A lot can happen” before next BTC buy signal

On hash ribbons data, Edwards described the latest capitulation as having “just started,” arguing that the true market turning point signal had not yet arrived.

“We all know what it means when a Hash Ribbon buy signal eventually follows…” he acknowledged.