Bitcoin (BTC) markets are steadying after rebounding sharply

Bitcoin jumped 8% over the past 24 hours and trades just below 82k as President Trump walked back reciprocal trade tariffs.

Crypto markets are steadying after rebounding sharply as part of a broad-based recovery across digital assets and global equities.

President Trump’s surprising decision to pause reciprocal trade tariffs for 90 days halted several days of declines across global markets and cryptocurrencies.

Investors had been fretting that Trump’s aggressive reciprocal tariffs would send the US economy into recession, causing a selloff in risk assets, the US dollar, and ultimately US government debt.

However, Trump’s announcement stunned the market, triggering a sharp recovery in risk assets across the board. The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed 12% higher after its strongest daily performance in two decades.

Bitcoin rallied from a low of 74.4k yesterday to a peak of 82.5k before easing back to 81.7k at the time of writing. Other cryptocurrencies also experienced big moves, with Ethereum surging 13.4% to 1611 and XRP jumping 13%.

The sharp reversal resulted in total crypto liquidations reaching $589 million yesterday according to Coinglass data. Sell positions bore the brunt of those liquidations, totalling $374 million, and long positions, $214 million.

However, institutional demand remains weak. Yesterday, BTC ETFs experienced net outflows of $127.12 million, even as the Bitcoin price rebounded. This marked the fifth straight day of outflows. Should outflows persist and intensify, the BTC price could come under pressure once again.

While Trump’s move has brought the US and global economies away from the cliff edge, they are by no means out of the woods. Trade tariffs on autos, steel, and aluminium, along with 10% universal tariffs and an escalating trade war with China, mean there is still plenty of uncertainty. The US economy is still likely to slow but may avoid a recession, which could keep a rally in risk assets capped.

The FOMC minutes supported this view, showing that US risks were tilted towards higher inflation and slower growth from Trump’s trade tariffs. The minutes related to the March meeting, which took place before the latest policy chaos. This macro backdrop could make it challenging for Bitcoin to recover.

However, it is also worth keeping in mind that as the escalation of the trade war with China has seen Beijing allow the yuan to weaken below the critical 7.20 to its lowest level since 2007. This makes exports cheaper, offsetting some of the tariff pain. Historically, a weak yuan has been beneficial for Bitcoin, driving a flight of capital out of China. Should history repeat itself, this could be a support for BTC.

Furthermore, additional economic stimulus in China after Trump ratcheted up tariffs could also be a boon for cryptocurrencies. Top leaders will meet today to discuss additional stimulus measures.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Bitcoin trades below its falling trendline dating back to the start of the year, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. The 50 SMA crossed below its 200 SMA in a bearish death cross signal. The price has recovered from 74.4k to above 80k and retested the falling trendline.

Rejection at the falling trendline and the RSI pointing downward while remaining below 50 could give sellers the upper hand. Sellers would need to take out support at 80k and 74.4k to extend the bearish trend.

To break out to the upside, buyers will need to extend the recovery above 83.5, yesterday’s high, the falling trendline, and the 85k round number. This would need to be confirmed by a rise above the 200 SMA at 86.8K to bring 90 K into focus.