Bitcoin (BTC) Analyst Benjamin Cowen Eyes Labor Market Data, Inflation Expectations for Near-Term Price Clues

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen sees recent labor market data and inflation expectations potentially having significant implications for Bitcoin's BTC/USD price trajectory in the near term.

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that recent labor market data and inflation expectations could have significant implications for Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) price trajectory in the near term.

Labor Market Data: In a podcast on Feb. 9, Cowen highlighted the unemployment rate, which fell to 4% in January, and a sharp increase in inflation expectations as key factors that could influence Bitcoin’s performance.

He noted that the unemployment rate coming in below 4.1% could “reinvigorate inflationary fears,” which may lead to a bounce along the yield curve.

“We had the unemployment rate come in at 4%, which was way, way below the 4.1% that markets were expecting. This could reinvigorate inflationary fears, especially considering that we had a nice drop in the unemployment rate last month as well. If we do get a bounce in the yield curve, which I think we will, I think that will be a headwind for risk assets.”

Inflation Expectations Surged: The analyst also drew attention to the substantial jump in U.S. Michigan one-year inflation expectations, which rose from 3.3% to 4.3% in a single month.

Cowen speculated that this increase could be attributed to several factors, including potential policy changes, expectations of rate cuts, or the impact of tariffs.

“Our inflation expectations also had a massive increase, which was interesting to see. It went from 3.3% to 4.3%. Markets were expecting 3.4%. We had a huge beat on that one. I don’t know what to make of that. Maybe it’s potential policy changes, expectations of rate cuts, or the impact of tariffs.”

10-Year Treasury Yield At Key Technical Level: Cowen pointed out that the 10-year Treasury yield is currently testing a crucial technical level.

“The 10-year yield is testing a key technical level. I do wonder if the 10-year yield is just simply going to bounce off of this 21 weekly EMA just like it did back over here at the beginning of December.”

He suggested that if the 10-year yield breaks back above 5%, it could create headwinds for Bitcoin, potentially causing it to “struggle for at least a few more weeks.”

“If the 10-year yield does break back above 5%, I think that will be another headwind for Bitcoin, and we’ll probably continue to struggle for at least a few more weeks.”

Bitcoin Price Action: While Bitcoin has held up better than many other assets, Cowen urged traders to watch the 10-year yield closely, as its movement could determine BTC's next major move.

“Bitcoin is struggling, but everything else is getting absolutely destroyed. I think the 10-year yield is really the key to what happens next for Bitcoin.”