Binance Secretly Manipulating KAS Price?

Cryptocurrency analytics page Kaspa Report has uncovered what they describe as “a massive distortion” in Kaspa's coin distribution patterns.

Cryptocurrency analytics page Kaspa Report has uncovered what they describe as “a massive distortion” in Kaspa’s coin distribution patterns. The analysis points to a single entity—likely crypto exchange giant Binance—centralizing control of the KAS token supply.

Kaspa Report began its investigation in December 2024 by identifying an anomaly in the redistribution of KAS tokens across different wallet categories. They noticed that “humpback” wallets, or very large holders, were making substantial gains in their percentage of circulating supply. This pattern contradicts the normal distribution trends seen in healthy cryptocurrency ecosystems.

“What makes this situation particularly unusual is the fact that accumulating large amounts of KAS should become exponentially more difficult over time,” Kaspa Report explained in their detailed thread.

As hashrate increases and new supply declines, amassing significant quantities of KAS should be increasingly challenging. Yet despite these natural constraints, their analysis identified one wallet that has been accumulating KAS at an accelerating rate for over a year. This wallet, ending in n4uk5a and presumed to belong to Binance, has been accumulating KAS at an unsustainable, accelerating rate, at one point capturing more than half of all new supply for several consecutive months.

Kaspa Data Analysis: A Tale of Conflicting Data Points

Digging deeper into blockchain analytics provided by Kaspalytics, the researchers encountered several conflicting data points that ultimately strengthened their suspicions. They found that while the percentage of circulating supply held by the top 0.01% of wallets had increased over the past year, the minimum amount of KAS needed to be in this elite group had decreased.

This combination is counterintuitive and suggests that KAS is becoming more concentrated within this small group, but not evenly. After examining all 16 wallets in this cohort with above-average holdings, one stands out dramatically—the same wallet believed to be controlled by Binance.

The investigation ruled out the possibility that this wallet’s extraordinary growth came from mining operations. Kaspa Report demonstrated through detailed analysis that for a mining operation to achieve this pattern of accumulation would require “an implausibly limitless external funding source or a cost-free, infinitely scalable mining operation” that defies practical limitations.

KAS Price Suppression Theory Takes Center Stage

Kaspa Report’s most provocative claim is that this wallet’s accumulation pattern is only possible through active price suppression in the KAS market. “We suspect that the wallet’s ability to accumulate Kaspa so rapidly stems from the owner’s ability to suppress the price,” they stated.

According to their analysis, the disruption to Kaspa’s natural redistribution patterns represents a calculated attempt to centralize control of the Kaspa market. If the wallet does indeed belong to Binance as suspected, it would suggest the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange is undertaking extraordinary efforts to dominate the KAS market.

The report suggests that the exchange might be intentionally keeping KAS prices artificially low to facilitate their acquisition strategy, potentially ahead of a future spot listing that would expand access to the Kaspa ecosystem.

Kaspa Market Response Shows Resilience Against Centralization

Despite these apparent centralization efforts, Kaspa Report remains optimistic about the network’s long-term decentralization. Their analysis shows that KAS continues to be accumulated by an increasing number of holders who collectively act as resistance against market centralization attempts.

“The more Kaspa’s price is suppressed, the faster holders accumulate, frustrating those trying to usurp KAS,” the report explained. “Each market manipulation attempt to induce forced selling is met with increased buying by those who have adopted the Kaspa standard.”

Kaspa Report concluded their investigation with a surprisingly balanced perspective, noting that while they highlight potential market manipulation by Binance, their goal is not to condemn the exchange. They acknowledge that Binance’s actions represent those of a powerful self-interested market participant, and that such behavior is common in traditional financial markets.

They even suggest that long-term Kaspa investors might benefit from this situation, as Binance is effectively “subsidizing” the acquisition of KAS for patient accumulators. Additionally, they note that Binance’s ultimate aim is likely to list Kaspa for spot trading, which would significantly expand access to the Kaspa ecosystem.

“Ultimately, this may prove to be one of the biggest attempts to control the Kaspa market,” they concluded. “Yet no amount of fiat currency or price manipulation can break Kaspa’s decentralization.”