AI Agents Could Be This Cycle's Step Function Unlock

The growth of AI agents is showing an explosive trend. New agents are launched every week, often to promote specific tokens. In these early stages, they resemble a new type of memecoin: you can launch a coin like $GOAT and attract fans to spread the meme by building an AI agent.

Original Title: "AI Agents Could Be This Cycle's Step Function Unlock"

Author: trace

Compiler: 深潮 TechFlow

The development of AI agents is showing an explosive trend. New agents are launched every week, often to promote specific tokens. In these early stages, they resemble a new type of memecoin: you can launch a coin like $GOAT and attract fans to spread the meme by building an AI agent. So, how will this trend evolve in the future? One significant change is that these agents will gradually shift from promoting random memecoins to promoting themselves. In other words, these agents will have their own tokens, and as the influence of the agents increases, their value will grow accordingly. These "ownable agents" could become a major breakthrough in this cycle, similar to NFTs or DeFi in the previous cycle.

In the past, I was skeptical about AI agents. I was uncertain whether the market timing was right or if we had attracted enough talent. Here are the reasons that changed my perspective:

Distribution Capability: AI agents like @truthterminal and @lunavirtuals have already proven that, at least today, these agents are powerful enough to establish effective distribution channels.

Ease of Creation: Developers can build agents on existing large language models using simple and user-friendly APIs; they no longer need to be experts. Projects like @vvaifudotfun are developing low-code/no-code interfaces that allow anyone to build agents.

Memecoin Effect: The issuance model of memecoin tokens demonstrates a successful form for launching and spreading AI agent tokens. In the early stages, these agents do not need to engage in economic activities that directly create value for their tokens; they only need to attract attention like memecoins.

However, to truly grow, AI agents cannot be limited to promoting memecoins; the market needs a clear vision and development roadmap that showcases the potential future directions of these agents. In other words, these projects need to tell the market that what is currently just promoting their own memecoins may evolve into traders, software engineers, or artists, ultimately worth billions of dollars. As their initial development partly reflects their distribution capability, they actually become more valuable as they gain popularity.

Let me elaborate on the last point. For something to catalyze an entire cryptocurrency adoption cycle, there must be a grand narrative that can penetrate the mainstream market, attracting new users and capital. This narrative needs to be both credible and exciting.

AI agents fit this requirement perfectly. These agents not only feel novel but are also being recognized by the traditional tech community. Currently, AI agent companies are founded by world-class founders and supported by top venture capital firms (e.g., @agency). However, many investors cannot directly invest in these companies—they can't even buy into companies like Stripe or SpaceX that have been around for a decade—so they will seek exposure through cryptocurrencies.

To some extent, this is similar to the metaverse concept of the previous cycle. While those projects may have exaggerated their own potential, they showcased a grand vision to the market through some events unrelated to cryptocurrency (such as the rise of remote work during the pandemic and Facebook's rebranding to Meta).

While many projects may seem hollow, some could bring revolutionary changes. AI agents are becoming smarter, and as the crypto market expands, talented AI developers capable of building economically productive agents may realize that tokenizing their agents is a promising business strategy. Tokenized agents can offer them faster liquidity, higher valuations, and more convenient distribution channels than traditional SaaS companies.

In the short term, the most important thing in the AI agent space is to continue expanding distribution channels. I am optimistic about their ability to do this for three reasons:

Proof of Existence: We have already seen evidence from cases like Truth Terminal that agents can build large-scale audiences. I expect more similar success stories to emerge.

Incentive Mechanisms: If the market generates a speculative frenzy around AI agents, seeking and following these agents could yield substantial profits. The gold rush in the cryptocurrency space will help drive their distribution.

Iterative Improvement: Building more attractive AI agents will be an iterative process. For example, the zerebro whitepaper mentions that the agent optimizes content creation by monitoring engagement metrics like likes, shares, and comments to enhance user interaction. This iteration will occur not only at the model level but will also evolve at the market level, aiming to create increasingly appealing content.

If we accept the theory that "attention is value," then as the ability of agents to attract attention increases, their value will also rise.

Currently, all of this is still in a very early stage, and the future development is full of uncertainty—future agents may be completely different from those of today. But one thing is certain: AI agents already have the support of the market and technology and are poised to become the next significant category of crypto assets.