日元升值与过去的金融危机相呼应

上周一，由于日元套利交易的平仓扰乱了市场，全球股市和数字资产遭受了大幅抛售。

Global equities and digital assets underwent a dramatic selloff on Monday as the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade rattled markets.

由于日元套利交易的平仓扰乱了市场，全球股市和数字资产周一遭遇大幅抛售。

The S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) Broad Market Index (BMI), which measures the performance of more than 14,000 stocks around the world, retreated 3.3%, its worst trading day in over two years. The Tokyo Stock Price Index, or TOPIX, fell 20% in its biggest three-day wipeout ever. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index tumbled as much as 17.5%.

衡量全球 14,000 多只股票表现的标准普尔全球 (NYSE:SPGI) 大盘指数 (BMI) 下跌 3.3%，这是两年多来最糟糕的交易日。东京股票价格指数 (TOPIX) 下跌 20%，创下有史以来最大的三日跌幅。与此同时，彭博银河加密货币指数暴跌 17.5%。

Carry trades, for those less familiar, involve borrowing in a low-interest-rate currency—like the Japanese yen or Swiss franc—and investing the proceeds in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. This strategy has been immensely profitable, given the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) longstanding zero-rate policy.

对于不太熟悉的人来说，套利交易涉及以低利率货币（如日元或瑞士法郎）借款，并将收益投资于其他地方的高收益资产。鉴于日本央行（BOJ）长期实行的零利率政策，这一策略带来了巨大的利润。

However, the recent rate hike by the BOJ has thrown a wrench into these trades, leading to a rapid appreciation of the yen against the U.S. dollar. As many of you are aware, a strong local currency can put pressure on that country’s stock market because exported goods become less competitive.

然而，日本央行最近的加息对这些交易造成了影响，导致日元兑美元迅速升值。正如你们许多人所知，强势的当地货币可能会给该国的股市带来压力，因为出口商品的竞争力下降。

The yen’s appreciation mirrored past episodes, such as the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) hedge fund collapse and the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, where the yen appreciated 20% from its low. As of early August, the yen had already appreciated over 10% against the U.S. dollar.

日元升值反映了过去的经历，例如1998年长期资本管理公司(LTCM)对冲基金崩溃和2007年次贷危机，当时日元从低点升值了20%。截至8月初，日元兑美元已升值超过10%。

Following the selloff, the BOJ walked back its hawkish stance, with Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida pledging to refrain from further rate hikes amid market instability. This should provide some relief in the near term, but the broader implications of the yen’s rebound and the carry trade unwind will likely continue to influence markets.

抛售之后，日本央行收回了强硬立场，副行长内田信一承诺在市场不稳定的情况下不会进一步加息。这应该会在短期内带来一些缓解，但日元反弹和套利交易放松的更广泛影响可能会继续影响市场。

Given these developments, I urge caution. History suggests that the unwinding is not yet complete. In a report dated August 9, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) says it believes the unwind is about halfway done. What’s more, financial markets are pricing in multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which could further exacerbate the carry trade unwind. In such a scenario, it’s prudent to remain cautious about “buying the dip.”

鉴于这些事态发展，我敦促谨慎行事。历史表明，放松尚未完成。摩根大通（纽约证券交易所股票代码：JPM）在 8 月 9 日的一份报告中表示，它认为放松已经完成一半。更重要的是，金融市场正在消化美联储今年多次降息的影响，这可能会进一步加剧套利交易的平仓。在这种情况下，谨慎的做法是对“逢低买入”保持谨慎。

Bitcoin Volatility Challenges Digital Gold Narrative

比特币波动性挑战数字黄金叙事

As equities plummeted, Bitcoin's behavior sparked significant interest. The world’s largest digital asset dropped as much as 17% last Monday—briefly falling below $50,000 for the first time since February—before recovering some of its losses, ending the day down 8%.

随着股市暴跌，比特币的行为引发了人们的极大兴趣。全球最大的数字资产上周一下跌 17%，自 2 月份以来首次短暂跌破 50,000 美元，随后收复部分失地，收盘下跌 8%。

This contrasted with gold, which fell just over 1% on the day.

这与黄金形成鲜明对比，黄金当天下跌略高于 1%。

The selloff in Bitcoin highlights a crucial point: While it’s often touted as “digital gold,” there are some who believe the cryptocurrency has yet to prove itself as a stable store of value in times of market stress.

比特币的抛售凸显了一个关键点：虽然它经常被吹捧为“数字黄金”，但有些人认为，在市场压力时期，这种加密货币尚未证明自己是一种稳定的价值储存手段。

“Despite both gold and Bitcoin being limited supply, zero-coupon instruments, [Bitcoin] does not exhibit gold’s ‘store of value’ properties,” Citi analyst David Glass said in a note this week.

花旗分析师 David Glass 在本周的一份报告中表示：“尽管黄金和比特币都是供应有限的零息工具，但[比特币]并没有表现出黄金的‘价值储存’特性。”

Our own analysis adds some color to Citi’s conclusion and shows that Bitcoin has historically behaved more like a risk-on asset than a safe haven. Over the past decade, during the 10 worst months for the S&P 500, Bitcoin fell by an average of 6.4%, while gold remained slightly positive with an average return of 0.8%. During the best 10 best months, on the other hand, Bitcoin surged an eye-popping 22.4% on average, significantly outpacing gold’s 1.5%.

我们自己的分析为花旗的结论增添了一些色彩，并表明比特币在历史上的表现更像是一种风险资产，而不是避险资产。过去十年，在标普 500 指数表现最差的 10 个月中，比特币平均下跌 6.4%，而黄金则保持小幅上涨，平均回报率为 0.8%。另一方面，在表现最好的 10 个月中，比特币平均飙升了令人瞠目结舌的 22.4%，大大超过了黄金 1.5% 的涨幅。

This suggests that Bitcoin may offer higher potential returns than gold during market rallies, but it comes with greater risk during downturns. This is why I always recommend a 10% weighting in gold and gold mining stocks for more conservative investors, while Bitcoin and other digital assets may be more attractive to investors with a longer time horizon or higher risk tolerance.

这表明，在市场上涨期间，比特币可能提供比黄金更高的潜在回报，但在市场低迷时期，它会带来更大的风险。这就是为什么我总是建议较为保守的投资者将黄金和金矿股的权重定为10%，而比特币和其他数字资产可能对时间跨度较长或风险承受能力较高的投资者更具吸引力。