VanEck 策略师 Matthew Sigel 预测比特币 (BTC) 将在 2025 年第一季度达到 180,000 美元

VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 概述了到 2025 年加密货币市场的详细预测。

VanEck’s head of digital asset research has provided a detailed forecast for the cryptocurrency market through 2025.

VanEck 数字资产研究主管对 2025 年之前的加密货币市场进行了详细预测。

According to Matthew Sigel, Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to reach $180,000 in the first quarter before experiencing a correction. The analysis projects Ethereum (ETH) reaching over $6,000, while coins like Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI) could achieve $500 and $10, respectively.

据 Matthew Sigel 称，比特币（BTC）预计第一季度将达到 18 万美元，然后经历回调。分析预计以太坊 (ETH) 将达到 6,000 美元以上，而 Solana (SOL) 和 Sui (SUI) 等代币可能分别达到 500 美元和 10 美元。

Sigel anticipates this initial peak will be followed by a market correction, with Bitcoin pulling back 30% and altcoins experiencing deeper declines of up to 60% during the summer months.

Sigel 预计，在这个最初的峰值之后将出现市场调整，比特币将回落 30%，山寨币将在夏季经历更严重的跌幅，最高可达 60%。

To identify potential market tops, Sigel highlights several key indicators for investors to monitor. The research points to sustained high funding rates as a crucial signal.

为了确定潜在的市场顶部，Sigel 强调了投资者需要监控的几个关键指标。研究指出，持续的高资助率是一个关键信号。

He noted that when traders consistently pay funding rates above 10% for three months or longer to bet on Bitcoin price increases, it typically indicates excessive speculation in the market.

他指出，当交易者连续三个月或更长时间支付高于 10% 的资金利率来押注比特币价格上涨时，通常表明市场存在过度投机行为。

The analysis also emphasizes the importance of tracking unrealized profits among Bitcoin holders. When a large proportion of holders maintain paper gains with a profit-to-cost ratio exceeding 70%, it often signals market euphoria.

该分析还强调了跟踪比特币持有者未实现利润的重要性。当大部分持有者维持账面收益且利润成本比超过70%时，往往预示着市场的乐观情绪。

Bitcoin’s market dominance serves as another critical indicator. Sigel warns that a drop below 40% could signal excessive speculation in altcoins, typical of late-cycle market behavior. 

比特币的市场主导地位是另一个关键指标。 Sigel 警告称，跌幅低于 40% 可能表明山寨币过度投机，这是典型的晚周期市场行为。

The research attributes current market momentum largely to Donald Trump’s election victory and his administration’s projected appointments. The anticipated crypto-friendly leadership team, including JD Vance as VP and Paul Atkins as SEC Chair, suggests a shift from previous restrictive policies toward a framework that positions Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

该研究将当前的市场动力主要归因于唐纳德·特朗普的选举胜利及其政府的预计任命。预期的加密货币友好型领导团队，包括担任副总裁的 JD Vance 和担任 SEC 主席的 Paul Atkins，建议从以前的限制性政策转向将比特币定位为战略资产的框架。

Following the summer correction, Sigel forecasts a market recovery in fall 2025. Major cryptocurrencies will likely reclaim their previous all-time highs by year-end.

在夏季调整之后，Sigel 预测市场将于 2025 年秋季复苏。主要加密货币可能会在年底前恢复之前的历史高点。

This projection assumes continued institutional adoption and supportive regulatory developments under the new administration.

该预测假设在新政府的领导下继续进行机构采用和支持性监管发展。

This market outlook provides investors with specific price targets and warning signals to monitor, while acknowledging the impact of political developments on the crypto market. 

这一市场前景为投资者提供了具体的价格目标和需要监控的警告信号，同时承认政治发展对加密货币市场的影响。