了解 Memecoin 的兴衰：深入探究市场对快速收益和操纵敏感性的痴迷

在 2024 年 11 月 4 日发布的全面分析中，全球最大加密货币交易所的研究部门币安研究院揭示了模因币市场的严峻现实。

Binance Research, the analytical division of the world's leading cryptocurrency exchange, has conducted an extensive analysis of the meme coin market, revealing some sobering truths.

币安研究院是全球领先的加密货币交易所的分析部门，对模因币市场进行了广泛的分析，揭示了一些发人深省的事实。

The report, titled Understanding the Rise of Memecoins and spearheaded by Binance's Macro Researcher Josh Wong, highlights that a staggering 97% of meme coins have experienced a drastic decline in trading volume, rendering them practically defunct. This underscores the inherent volatility and susceptibility of these tokens to market manipulation.

这份题为《了解 Memecoins 的崛起》的报告由币安宏观研究员 Josh Wong 牵头，强调令人震惊的是，97% 的 Memecoin 经历了交易量的急剧下降，导致它们实际上已经不复存在。这强调了这些代币固有的波动性和对市场操纵的敏感性。

In Wong's words: Picks for you

用黄的话来说：为您挑选

“The majority of memecoins born from the frenzy of 2023 and 2024 have proven to be fleeting. A full 97% have already died, reaching near-zero trading volumes.”

“事实证明，在 2023 年和 2024 年的狂热中诞生的大多数模因币都转瞬即逝。整整 97% 的人已经死亡，交易量几乎为零。”

This rapid rise and subsequent collapse, in the case of many of these tokens, speaks to the market's infatuation with quick gains and speculative trading, often at the peril of retail investors.

对于许多此类代币来说，这种快速上涨和随后的崩溃说明了市场对快速收益和投机交易的迷恋，而这往往让散户投资者面临风险。

Meme coins' high volatility

Meme币的高波动性

The report, shared with Finbold, also reveals that meme coins, owing to their simplicity and accessibility, are proliferating at an unmatched pace.

与芬博尔德分享的这份报告还显示，模因币由于其简单性和可访问性，正在以无与伦比的速度激增。

Over 75% of these tokens emerged within the last year alone, enabling them to garner market interest and forge communities at a rate far swifter than traditional technology-backed altcoins.

仅去年一年就出现了超过 75% 的代币，使它们能够以比传统技术支持的山寨币快得多的速度赢得市场兴趣并建立社区。

As Wong explains:

正如黄解释的那样：

“The time-to-convert for a memeccoin consumer is much shorter than that for a technology-focused altcoin investor, leading to a rapid propagation of their narratives.”

“memeccoin 消费者的转换时间比专注于技术的山寨币投资者要短得多，从而导致他们的叙述迅速传播。”

This fast-paced environment has seen capital flowing into memecoins at breakneck speed. For instance, the memecoin WIF attained a $1 billion market cap in only 104 days, compared to Shiba Inu's (SHIB) 279 days and Dogecoin's (DOGE)—a veteran in the meme market—eight years.

在这种快节奏的环境下，资本以极快的速度流入模因币。例如，模因币 WIF 仅用了 104 天就达到了 10 亿美元的市值，而柴犬 (SHIB) 则需要 279 天，而模因市场老手狗币 (DOGE) 则需要 8 年时间。

The ease with which new memecoins can be created has resulted in a continuous influx of novel tokens, each vying for attention and investment in an increasingly competitive market.

创建新模因币的便捷性导致新型代币不断涌入，每种代币都在竞争日益激烈的市场中争夺注意力和投资。

While the majority of memecoins struggle to maintain relevance, a select few, such as DOGE and Shiba Inu, have shown longevity. Dogecoin, now over a decade old, and SHIB, at four years, embody the rare exceptions in a market dominated by short-lived tokens.

虽然大多数模因币都在努力维持相关性，但 DOGE 和 Shiba Inu 等少数模因币却表现出了长久的生命力。狗狗币已有十多年的历史，而 SHIB 已有四年的历史，它们体现了由短期代币主导的市场中罕见的例外。

However, their success highlights the broader trend—for most meme coins, the survival rate is remarkably low, with only a handful capable of building sustainable ecosystems and dedicated communities.

然而，它们的成功凸显了更广泛的趋势——对于大多数模因币来说，存活率非常低，只有少数能够建立可持续的生态系统和专门的社区。

Risks of Pump-and-Dump schemes

拉高抛售计划的风险

Despite the allure of quick gains, Binance Research also sounds the alarm on the substantial risks involved.

尽管有快速收益的诱惑，币安研究院也对所涉及的巨大风险发出了警报。

“The rapid rate of growth and speculation makes memecoins an investment vehicle with high potential for outsized returns,” Wong says, “but their heavy reliance on market sentiment, with little else to support their valuations, also makes them an extremely risky asset class.”

“快速的增长和投机使得模因币成为一种具有巨大回报潜力的投资工具，”Wong 说，“但它们严重依赖市场情绪，几乎没有其他因素来支持其估值，也使它们成为风险极高的资产类别。 ”

Furthermore, the report acknowledges that the meme coin market is prone to exploitation tactics, particularly pump-and-dump schemes designed to create exit liquidity for early adopters and insiders at the expense of retail traders. While meme coins offer enhanced transparency and ease of access, these attributes have not entirely shielded investors from predatory practices.

此外，该报告承认，模因币市场很容易出现剥削策略，特别是旨在以牺牲零售交易者为代价为早期采用者和内部人士创造退出流动性的拉高抛售计划。虽然模因币提供了更高的透明度和更便捷的获取方式，但这些属性并没有完全保护投资者免受掠夺性行为的侵害。

As new memecoins continue to flood the market, investors are advised to proceed with caution, recognizing that the potential for outsized gains is matched by equally outsized risks. For every DOGE or SHIB that defies the odds, dozens of tokens inevitably fade into obscurity.

随着新的模因币继续涌入市场，建议投资者谨慎行事，认识到巨大收益的潜力与同样巨大的风险相匹配。对于每一个不畏困难的 DOGE 或 SHIB，数十种代币都不可避免地会消失。