尽管近期有所上涨，但 Toncoin (TON) 仍陷入困境 - 下一步是什么？

过去几周，Toncoin [TON] 一直徘徊在 5.1 美元到 5.5 美元之间。虽然大多数山寨币在继续创出近期高点的同时

Over the past few weeks, Toncoin (CRYPTO: TON) has traded within a tight range, with its price remaining largely flat despite a recent uptick in momentum for altcoins.

在过去的几周里，Toncoin（加密货币：TON）一直在窄幅区间内交易，尽管最近山寨币的势头有所上升，但其价格基本保持平稳。

At the time of writing, TON was trading at $5.55, up by 1.83% over the past 24 hours. This recent price increase also saw the altcoin record gains on the weekly and monthly charts. Over the past week, TON gained by 4.91%, while over the past month, it gained by 6.85%.

截至撰写本文时，TON 的交易价格为 5.55 美元，在过去 24 小时内上涨了 1.83%。最近的价格上涨也见证了山寨币在周线和月线图表上创纪录的涨幅。过去一周，TON 上涨了 4.91%，而过去一个月，上涨了 6.85%。

Despite these gains, TON remained down by approximately 32.84% from its ATH of $8.24. This recent price action also occurred amid bearish market sentiment, with most altcoins recording losses.

尽管取得了这些收益，TON 仍较 8.24 美元的 ATH 下跌约 32.84%。最近的价格走势也是在市场情绪看跌的情况下发生的，大多数山寨币都出现了损失。

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, Toncoin was experiencing strong selling pressure amidst bearish sentiment in a bull market. This selling pressure was highlighted by the rising inflow into exchanges.

根据AMBCrypto的分析，在牛市的看跌情绪中，Toncoin正面临着强大的抛售压力。流入交易所的资金不断增加凸显了这种抛售压力。

IntoTheBlock data showed that the inflow into exchanges surged by 37.54% over the past 24 hours. This increased from a low of $34.05 million to $48.69 million over this period.

IntoTheBlock数据显示，过去24小时流入交易所的资金激增37.54%。在此期间，这一数字从 3405 万美元的低点增加到 4869 万美元。

When inflow into exchanges surges, it reflects investors’ lack of confidence, thus they transfer their assets to sell to maximize profits or reduce losses.

当流入交易所的资金激增时，反映出投资者缺乏信心，因此他们将资产转售以实现利润最大化或减少损失。

Toncoin’s Stoch RSI also made a bearish crossover days ago, further indicating that sellers are踽 dominating the market. This dropped from a high of 85 to 39 during this period.

Toncoin 的 Stoch RSI 几天前也出现了看跌交叉，进一步表明卖家正在主导市场。在此期间，这一数字从 85 的高点下降至 39。

Looking further, Toncoin’s Stock-to-Flow (SFR) ratio declined from 44.28 to 0 over the past week. Such a sharp decline in SFR suggests that the altcoin is experiencing oversupply.

进一步来看，过去一周，Toncoin 的存量与流量 (SFR) 比率从 44.28 下降至 0。 SFR 如此急剧下降表明山寨币正在经历供应过剩。

An increase in supply without demand often precedes price drops. As such, if the flow rises while the stock remains constant or decreases, this oversupply results in a collapse in scarcity, which results in Toncoin’s perceived value dropping significantly.

在没有需求的情况下供应增加通常会导致价格下跌。因此，如果流量增加而库存保持不变或减少，这种供应过剩会导致稀缺性崩溃，从而导致 Toncoin 的感知价值大幅下降。

According to IntoTheBlock, an SFR of 0 indicates that there is no stock left in circulation, which could lead to a massive increase in demand. However, this is not the case for Toncoin.

根据 IntoTheBlock 的说法，SFR 为 0 表示流通中没有库存，这可能会导致需求大幅增加。然而，Toncoin 的情况并非如此。

Instead, this oversupply is highlighted by the rising Percentage Price Bands (PPBs) at lower price points, indicating strong support at these levels.

相反，较低价格点的百分比价格带（PPB）上升凸显了这种供过于求的情况，表明这些水平有强劲的支撑。

On the other hand, there is a lack of PPBs at higher price points, indicating a lack of buying pressure at these levels.

另一方面，较高价位缺乏 PPB，表明这些水平缺乏购买压力。

If this selling pressure persists, Toncoin could drop to $5.2, where there is strong support. However, if buyers’ recent attempts pay off, the altcoin will break out of the consolidation range and reach $6.6, where there is significant resistance.

如果这种抛售压力持续存在，Toncoin 可能会跌至 5.2 美元，那里有强有力的支撑。然而，如果买家最近的尝试获得回报，山寨币将突破盘整区间并达到 6.6 美元，该位置存在重大阻力。