现货比特币 ETF 可能成为比特币价格升至 380 万美元的催化剂

2021 年，第一只比特币 (BTC -0.25%) 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 登陆美国市场。晨星公司分析师本·约翰逊 (Ben Johnson) 在发布会后告诉投资者

The arrival of Bitcoin (BTC -0.25%) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. was a highly anticipated event in 2021. However, as Morningstar analyst Ben Johnson quickly pointed out, "These aren't the Bitcoin ETFs you're looking for."

比特币 (BTC -0.25%) 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 在美国的到来是 2021 年备受期待的事件。然而，正如晨星分析师本·约翰逊 (Ben Johnson) 很快指出的那样，“这些不是你想要的比特币 ETF寻找。”

The first generation of Bitcoin ETFs available in the U.S. do not, in fact, directly invest in the cryptocurrency. Instead, they buy and sell futures contracts. The problem with this strategy is that price changes in futures contracts do not always mirror price changes in Bitcoin.

事实上，美国第一代比特币 ETF 并不直接投资于加密货币。相反，他们买卖期货合约。这种策略的问题在于，期货合约的价格变化并不总是反映比特币的价格变化。

Additionally, to maintain indefinite exposure, issuers must continually roll Bitcoin futures contracts from one month to the next. This means that they sell contracts as the expiration date approaches and buy new contracts. But rolling the contracts costs money, and the fees are passed along to shareholders.

此外，为了保持无限期的风险敞口，发行人必须不断地将比特币期货合约从一个月滚动到下一个月。这意味着他们在到期日临近时出售合同并购买新合同。但延期合同需要花钱，而费用则转嫁给股东。

As a result, the first Bitcoin ETFs offer only indirect exposure to Bitcoin and, consequently, fail to tightly track its price. For instance, the futures-linked ProShares Bitcoin ETF has declined 37% since making its market debut in October 2021, but Bitcoin has gained 60%. In other words, the first Bitcoin ETF to hit the U.S. market has underperformed Bitcoin by 97 percentage points since its inception.

因此，第一批比特币 ETF 仅提供对比特币的间接投资，因此无法严格跟踪其价格。例如，与期货挂钩的 ProShares 比特币 ETF 自 2021 年 10 月上市以来已下跌 37%，但比特币却上涨了 60%。换句话说，自推出以来，首个登陆美国市场的比特币ETF的表现已落后比特币97个百分点。

Those were not the Bitcoin ETFs investors wanted, and Johnson was correct to say so. Fortunately, spot Bitcoin ETFs -- which actually own Bitcoin -- are expected to launch in January 2024, and the cryptocurrency is now doing something it has never done before: It is seeing strong adoption among institutional investors.

这些并不是投资者想要的比特币 ETF，约翰逊的说法是正确的。幸运的是，现货比特币 ETF（实际上拥有比特币）预计将于 2024 年 1 月推出，而这种加密货币现在正在做一些以前从未做过的事情：机构投资者正在大力采用它。

Here's why that matters.

这就是为什么这很重要。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs reduce friction for institutional investors

现货比特币 ETF 减少机构投资者的摩擦

The SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. Those new funds will let investors add Bitcoin exposure to existing brokerage accounts, while eliminating the hassle and high fees associated with cryptocurrency exchanges.

美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 于 2024 年 1 月批准了 11 只现货比特币 ETF。这些新基金将允许投资者将比特币敞口添加到现有的经纪账户中，同时消除与加密货币交易相关的麻烦和高额费用。

Consider this assessment from John Eade, president of Argus Research:

考虑一下阿格斯研究公司总裁约翰·伊德 (John Eade) 的评估：

Not long ago, the only way to gain exposure to Bitcoin was to invest in it directly. The process was arduous and required self-service in an unregulated market. But investing in Bitcoin has come a long way thanks to the January debut of spot Bitcoin ETFs. This new type of security gives investors exposure to Bitcoin without the need to buy, store, or manage it.

不久前，获得比特币投资的唯一方法是直接投资。这个过程非常艰巨，并且需要在不受监管的市场中进行自助服务。但由于现货比特币 ETF 一月份的推出，比特币投资已经取得了长足的进步。这种新型证券让投资者无需购买、存储或管理即可接触比特币。

Importantly, because spot Bitcoin ETFs buy and hold the cryptocurrency rather than future contracts, they track the price of Bitcoin very closely. For instance, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT 1.05%) has returned 110% since making its debut in January 2024, while Bitcoin itself has advanced 111%.

重要的是，由于现货比特币 ETF 购买并持有加密货币而不是期货合约，因此它们非常密切地跟踪比特币的价格。例如，iShares 比特币信托基金（IBIT 1.05%）自 2024 年 1 月首次亮相以来，回报率已达 110%，而比特币本身则上涨了 111%。

Consequently, the new spot Bitcoin ETFs have already unlocked substantial demand among retail investors and institutional investors, such that several experts have called them the most successful ETF launches in history. In particular, the iShares Bitcoin Trust stands out. It hit $10 billion in assets faster than any ETF on record, according to The Wall Street Journal.

因此，新的现货比特币 ETF 已经释放了散户投资者和机构投资者的大量需求，以至于一些专家称其为历史上最成功的 ETF 发行。 iShares 比特币信托尤其引人注目。据《华尔街日报》报道，它的资产达到 100 亿美元的速度比有记录以来任何 ETF 都要快。

Institutional investors have contributed heavily to that trend. The number of institutions holding a spot Bitcoin ETF increased from 965 to 1,100 between the first and second quarters of 2024, such that they are "being adopted by institutions at the fastest rate of any ETF in history," according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise.

机构投资者对这一趋势做出了重大贡献。首席投资官 Matt Hougan 表示，2024 年第一季度到第二季度，持有现货比特币 ETF 的机构数量从 965 家增加到 1,100 家，因此“它们正以历史上最快的速度被机构采用”。 Bitwise 的官员。

That has colossal implications for Bitcoin's future price trajectory. Institutional investors have about $120 trillion in assets under management, and allocating even a small fraction of that sum to Bitcoin could drive its price much higher. Indeed, Cathie Wood at Ark Invest thinks institutions will eventually allocate "a little more than 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin," driving the price of a single Bitcoin to $3.8 million.

这对比特币未来的价格轨迹具有巨大影响。机构投资者管理着约 120 万亿美元的资产，即使将其中的一小部分分配给比特币，也可能会推高其价格。事实上，Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood 认为机构最终将“将其投资组合的 5% 以上分配给比特币”，从而将单个比特币的价格推至 380 万美元。

Image source: Getty Images.

图片来源：盖蒂图片社。

Options trading on the iShares Bitcoin Trust could accelerate institutional adoption

iShares 比特币信托上的期权交易可以加速机构采用

In November 2024, the Nasdaq Stock Exchange introduced options trading on the iShares Bitcoin Trust, a milestone that provides another catalyst to institutional adoption. Options contracts afford the holder the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell securities at a predetermined date and price.

2024 年 11 月，纳斯达克证券交易所在 iShares 比特币信托上推出了期权交易，这是一个里程碑，为机构采用提供了另一个催化剂。期权合约赋予持有人在预定日期和价格买卖证券的权利（但没有义务）。

One important application of options trading is the hedging of long positions. For instance, institutional money managers with positions in the iShares Bitcoin Trust could protect their portfolios from a potential Bitcoin crash by purchasing put options, which afford the holder the right to sell a security at a specific price during a predetermined period.

期权交易的一项重要应用是多头头寸的对冲。例如，在 iShares 比特币信托基金中持有头寸的机构资金管理者可以通过购买看跌期权来保护其投资组合免受潜在的比特币崩溃的影响，看跌期权赋予持有人在预定期限内以特定价格出售证券的权利。

What does it all mean?

这一切意味着什么？

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have already boosted institutional demand for Bitcoin, such that the cryptocurrency's price has surged 111% since the new funds hit the U.S. market in January. And demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs could continue to build as institutions incorporate options into their trading strategies. That could drive Bitcoin's price even higher in the coming years.

现货比特币 ETF 已经提振了机构对比特币的需求，自 1 月份新基金登陆美国市场以来，加密货币的价格已飙升 111%。随着机构将期权纳入其交易策略，对现货比特币 ETF 的需求可能会继续增加。这可能会在未来几年推高比特币的价格。