综合市场家伙

到目前为止，Polymarket 的创建者基本上都远离聚光灯，尽管他经营着当代政治中最有影响力的网站之一。

The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched in recent history, and a new player has emerged on the scene that is offering an interesting glimpse into the race: Polymarket.

2024 年总统选举即将成为近代历史上最受关注的选举之一，而一位新参与者的出现为这场竞选提供了有趣的一瞥：Polymarket。

The crypto-powered prediction market has attracted a following among political junkies and even some candidates themselves, offering a platform for users to bet on everything from the outcome of the election to whether Donald Trump will select JD Vance as his running mate.

由加密货币驱动的预测市场吸引了政治迷甚至一些候选人本身的追随者，为用户提供了一个平台，可以对一切进行押注，从选举结果到唐纳德·特朗普是否会选择 JD Vance 作为他的竞选伙伴。

But what exactly is Polymarket, and how reliable are its odds? Here's a closer look at the company and its role in the 2024 race.

但 Polymarket 到底是什么？它的赔率有多可靠？以下是该公司及其在 2024 年比赛中所扮演的角色的详细介绍。

What is Polymarket?

什么是综合市场？

Polymarket is a prediction market platform that allows users to buy and sell shares in the outcome of future events, such as elections, sports games, and economic indicators. The probability of an event occurring is determined by the price of its shares, which are set by a pool of bettors.

Polymarket 是一个预测市场平台，允许用户买卖未来事件结果的股票，例如选举、体育比赛和经济指标。事件发生的概率由其股票价格决定，而股票价格由一群投注者设定。

The platform was founded in 2020 by Shahab Shams and Ben Coplan, and it quickly gained popularity among crypto enthusiasts and traders. In 2021, Polymarket was fined $1.2 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for operating in the U.S. without being registered with the agency.

该平台由 Shahab Shams 和 Ben Coplan 于 2020 年创立，迅速受到加密货币爱好者和交易者的欢迎。 2021 年，Polymarket 因未在美国商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 注册而在美国开展业务而被罚款 120 万美元。

Despite the fine, Polymarket has continued to operate in the U.S., and its odds have been widely reported by media outlets throughout the 2024 presidential campaign.

尽管被罚款，Polymarket 仍继续在美国运营，其赔率在 2024 年总统竞选期间被媒体广泛报道。

How does Polymarket work?

综合市场如何运作？

Polymarket users can buy and sell shares in the outcome of future events, such as the 2024 presidential election or whether the AP will call certain states by 8 p.m. The probability of an event occurring is determined by the price of its shares, which are set by a pool of bettors.

Polymarket 用户可以根据未来事件的结果买卖股票，例如 2024 年总统选举或美联社是否会在晚上 8 点前致电某些州。事件发生的概率由其股票价格决定，该价格由一群投注者。

For example, on October 31, those who think Donald Trump will win every swing state could pay 26 cents, and if that comes to pass, the value of their contract will rise to $1. (If it doesn’t by election time, it will drop to zero). And, of course, the price will fluctuate in response to news events.

例如，在 10 月 31 日，那些认为唐纳德·特朗普将赢得每个摇摆州的人可以支付 26 美分，如果这种情况成真，他们的合同价值将升至 1 美元。 （如果到了选举时间还没有到来，它将降至零）。当然，价格会根据新闻事件而波动。

In theory, prediction markets like Polymarket are more reliable than polls because people have a financial income in the outcome, which gives them an incentive to be as accurate and truthful as they can.

从理论上讲，像 Polymarket 这样的预测市场比民意调查更可靠，因为人们在结果中获得了经济收入，这激励他们尽可能准确和真实。

Are Polymarket's odds reliable?

Polymarket的赔率可靠吗？

The reliability of Polymarket's odds is a matter of some debate. Some experts believe that the platform's decentralized nature and large pool of bettors make its odds more accurate than traditional polls. Others, however, point out that the platform's users are not necessarily representative of the American public, and that a large percentage of transactions on Polymarket are fake "wash trades."

Polymarket 赔率的可靠性存在一些争议。一些专家认为，该平台的去中心化性质和大量投注者使其赔率比传统民意调查更加准确。但也有人指出，该平台的用户不一定代表美国公众，Polymarket 上很大一部分交易都是虚假的“洗牌交易”。

A recent investigation by Fortune drew on blockchain data to reveal that around a third or more of the bets on Polymarket are in fact “wash trades”—a term that describes someone surreptitiously taking both sides of a trade. Doing so can manipulate markets by creating an artificial sense of trading volume or momentum in a given direction. This obviously has big implications concerning the integrity of Polymarket’s betting odds, and for the political process more generally. Polymarket declined to comment on the findings.

《财富》杂志最近利用区块链数据进行的一项调查显示，Polymarket 上大约三分之一或更多的赌注实际上是“洗牌交易”——这个术语描述的是有人暗中进行交易的双方。这样做可以通过在给定方向上创造交易量或动量的人为感觉来操纵市场。这显然对 Polymarket 投注赔率的完整性以及更广泛的政治进程产生重大影响。 Polymarket 拒绝对调查结果发表评论。

Ultimately, the reliability of Polymarket's odds is something that each individual user must decide for themselves. However, the platform's odds have certainly generated a lot of interest and discussion during the 2024 presidential campaign.

最终，Polymarket 赔率的可靠性是每个用户必须自己决定的。然而，该平台的赔率无疑在 2024 年总统竞选期间引起了很多兴趣和讨论。