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加密货币市场继续令人惊叹,Celestia 区块链的代币 TIA 就是一个明显的例子。
TIA, the native token of the Celestia blockchain, has seen a 40% increase in the last month, outperforming the 13% gain of the CoinDesk 20 index. This growth is surprising as many traders had positioned themselves for a price drop in anticipation of a token unlock worth $1.13 billion next month.
Celestia 区块链的原生代币 TIA 在上个月上涨了 40%,超过了 CoinDesk 20 指数 13% 的涨幅。这种增长令人惊讶,因为许多交易者预计下个月将有价值 11.3 亿美元的代币解锁,因此已经做好了价格下跌的准备。
The CoinDesk 20 index tracks the performance of the largest and most liquid cryptocurrencies. While the entire cryptocurrency market has shown signs of recovery, TIA has outperformed expectations.
CoinDesk 20 指数追踪最大、流动性最强的加密货币的表现。尽管整个加密货币市场已经出现复苏迹象,但 TIA 的表现超出了预期。
This is the largest gain for TIA since December 2023. On October 31, 175.74 million TIA tokens, which is 16% of the total supply, will be released.
这是TIA自2023年12月以来的最大涨幅。10月31日,将释放1.7574亿个TIA代币,占总供应量的16%。
This massive unlock poses a threat to the cryptocurrency’s price, as the influx of new tokens on the market could cause their value to plummet.
这种大规模的解锁对加密货币的价格构成了威胁,因为市场上新代币的涌入可能会导致其价值暴跌。
CryptoRank has estimated the value of these tokens at $1.13 billion, which is 82% of TIA's current market capitalization. Unlocks of this magnitude usually put bear pressure on prices, leading many market participants to hedge through perpetual contracts and OTC (over-the-counter) forward agreements.
CryptoRank 估计这些代币的价值为 11.3 亿美元,占 TIA 当前市值的 82%。如此大规模的解锁通常会给价格带来压力,导致许多市场参与者通过永续合约和场外交易远期协议进行对冲。
Many traders are anticipating the October 31st unlock and have positioned themselves as bear traders, expecting the price of TIA to drop once the tokens are released.
许多交易者预计 10 月 31 日解锁,并将自己定位为空头交易者,预计一旦代币释放,TIA 的价格将会下跌。
Jake Ostovskis, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, told CoinDesk that the demand for bear hedges has increased significantly in recent weeks.
Wintermute 的场外交易员 Jake Ostovskis 告诉 CoinDesk,最近几周对空头对冲的需求大幅增加。
This is leading to a scenario where a “short squeeze” could occur. A short squeeze happens when the price of an asset unexpectedly increases, forcing the bear traders to close their positions, which in turn pushes the price even higher.
这导致可能出现“轧空”的情况。当资产价格意外上涨时,就会发生轧空,迫使空头交易者平仓,进而推高价格。
In this case, TIA has maintained its resilience despite forecasts of a decline, thus leading to a chain effect that has further fueled its growth.
在这种情况下,尽管预测会出现下滑,但 TIA 仍保持了韧性,从而产生了连锁效应,进一步推动了其增长。
This phenomenon has also been supported by the recovery of financing rates linked to perpetual contracts on TIA. After being negative since July, these rates have returned to zero, indicating an improvement in market prospects for TIA and suggesting that many short bear traders have been “wrong-footed” by the price’s resilience.
TIA 永续合约融资利率的回升也支持了这一现象。自 7 月份以来一直为负值后,这些利率已回归零,表明 TIA 的市场前景有所改善,并表明许多空头交易者因价格的弹性而“措手不及”。
Another factor that has likely contributed to the TIA rally is the recent fundraising of $100 million, which was announced this week. This new round of financing brings the liquidity reserve of the Celestia foundation to $155 million, sparking further confidence among investors.
另一个可能推动 TIA 上涨的因素是本周宣布的近期 1 亿美元融资。新一轮融资使Celestia基金会的流动性储备达到1.55亿美元,进一步激发了投资者的信心。
Although the team has not disclosed the details on the use of these funds, some observers have speculated that it was an OTC deal with a valuation of $3.4 billion, selling tokens at $3 each. A third of these tokens will be unlocked on October 31, the same day as the upcoming release of 175.74 million TIA.
尽管该团队尚未透露这些资金的使用细节,但一些观察人士猜测,这是一笔估值为 34 亿美元的场外交易,以每个代币 3 美元的价格出售。其中三分之一的代币将于 10 月 31 日解锁,同一天即将释放 1.7574 亿个 TIA。
Despite the large quantity of tokens arriving on the market, many analysts believe that the unlocking has already been priced in. Ostovskis observed that the market might have anticipated the event, allowing investors to take adequate measures before the unlocking actually occurs.
尽管大量代币涌入市场,但许多分析师认为,解锁已经被定价。Ostovskis 观察到,市场可能已经预料到了这一事件,从而使投资者能够在解锁实际发生之前采取适当的措施。
This has given traders a window of opportunity to adjust their strategies, thus reducing the negative impact that an influx of new tokens could have on the price.
这为交易者提供了调整策略的机会,从而减少了新代币涌入可能对价格产生的负面影响。
According to Ostovskis, some market participants found the OTC sales to be controversial. However, in the end, the net effect seems to have been positive, allowing the market to absorb the risk more efficiently.
奥斯托夫斯基斯表示,一些市场参与者认为场外销售存在争议。然而,最终的净效应似乎是积极的,使市场能够更有效地吸收风险。
This has led many to believe that the worst is now behind us and that the market has already adapted to the new supply of tokens.
这让许多人相信最糟糕的情况已经过去,市场已经适应了新的代币供应。
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