林恩·奥尔登 (Lyn Alden) 表示，比特币 (BTC) 是对抗货币贬值的潜在对冲工具

著名投资策略师林恩·奥尔登认为，美国已经进入“财政主导”时期，政府赤字正在推动货币政策

Prominent investment strategist Lyn Alden believes the U.S. has entered a period of "fiscal dominance" where government deficits are driving monetary policy.

著名投资策略师林恩·奥尔登认为，美国已进入“财政主导”时期，政府赤字正在推动货币政策。

In an appearance on the ‘Less Noise More Signal’ podcast, Alden shared her insights on the current economic environment, the role of Bitcoin, and the challenges facing traditional financial systems.

在“少噪音，多信号”播客中，奥尔登分享了她对当前经济环境、比特币的作用以及传统金融体系面临的挑战的见解。

She argues that this shift from the previous era of monetary dominance began around 2016-2017 and is primarily driven by demographic changes as the large baby boomer generation enters retirement.

她认为，这种与之前货币主导时代的转变始于 2016 年至 2017 年左右，主要是由婴儿潮一代进入退休后的人口变化推动的。

Its implications for monetary policy are profound since raising interest rates can paradoxically worsen inflation by increasing the government’s debt burden, Alden notes.

奥尔登指出，它对货币政策的影响是深远的，因为加息可能会增加政府的债务负担，从而加剧通货膨胀。

“When they [Federal Reserve] raise rates, it does slow down bank lending but it actually blows out the deficit by an even bigger number than it slows down bank lending,” the strategist points out.

这位策略师指出：“当美联储加息时，它确实会减缓银行贷款，但实际上，它对赤字的打击幅度甚至比减缓银行贷款的幅度还要大。”

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Alden sees Bitcoin as a potential hedge against monetary debasement, but emphasizes that its success depends on continued adoption and utility, in part as a “store of value.”

奥尔登将比特币视为对抗货币贬值的潜在对冲工具，但强调其成功取决于持续的采用和实用性，部分是作为“价值储存手段”。

Regarding government attitudes towards cryptocurrencies, Alden emphasizes that “governments are not monoliths,” pointing out the diversity of opinions within political structures. This diversity, she believes, is crucial in preventing overly restrictive policies.

关于政府对加密货币的态度，奥尔登强调“政府不是铁板一块”，并指出政治结构内部意见的多样性。她认为，这种多样性对于防止过度限制性政策至关重要。

Alden advocates for education as a key strategy in fostering a balanced approach to cryptocurrency regulation.

奥尔登主张将教育作为促进加密货币监管平衡方法的关键策略。

Alden also discussed the importance of liquidity in asset markets. In a recent study, she found Bitcoin to be highly correlated with global liquidity measures, moving in the same direction 83% of the time over 12-month periods, higher than any other asset class examined.

奥尔登还讨论了资产市场流动性的重要性。在最近的一项研究中，她发现比特币与全球流动性指标高度相关，在 12 个月内，83% 的时间都朝着同一个方向发展，高于所研究的任何其他资产类别。

However, Alden cautions against oversimplification. She notes that in the 17% of cases where Bitcoin doesn’t follow liquidity trends, other factors, such as valuation, come into play.

然而，奥尔登警告不要过于简单化。她指出，在 17% 的比特币不遵循流动性趋势的情况下，估值等其他因素就会发挥作用。

She concluded that new technologies like Bitcoin offer potential alternatives and hedges against traditional financial system risks.

她的结论是，比特币等新技术提供了潜在的替代方案，可以对冲传统金融体系的风险。

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