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当 SEC 于 2024 年 7 月宣布批准多个现货以太坊 ETF 产品时,市场情绪几乎得到普遍支持和鼓励
The approval of multiple spot ether ETF products by the SEC in July 2024 was met with almost universal support and optimism within the market. After years of stymied efforts by industry advocates and operators to create and trade spot ETFs, the two largest cryptocurrencies – bitcoin and ether – had finally received ETF approval within the same year.
2024 年 7 月,美国 SEC 批准了多个现货以太坊 ETF 产品,几乎得到了市场的普遍支持和乐观。经过行业倡导者和运营商多年来创建和交易现货 ETF 的努力,两种最大的加密货币——比特币和以太币——终于在同年获得 ETF 批准。
However, in stark contrast to the dramatic increase in price that bitcoin experienced, the majority of which has remained intact even as headline volatility has continued to increase, the price response to the ether ETF was muted. Even more interestingly the trading volumes and institutional appetite for these ETF products has also remained lower than the spot bitcoin ETF and/or market forecasts.
然而,与比特币价格的大幅上涨形成鲜明对比的是,尽管整体波动性持续增加,但大部分比特币价格仍保持不变,而以太坊 ETF 的价格反应却很温和。更有趣的是,这些 ETF 产品的交易量和机构兴趣也仍然低于现货比特币 ETF 和/或市场预测。
Highlighting this sluggish beginning are the outflows that have been occurring from the ether ETF products, capped by a nearly $80 million outflow on a single Monday, which was the highest since a $98 million outflow figure in July 2024. While bitcoin has increased over 50% in 2024 (since the launch of spot ETF products), ether has only climbed approximately 15% and has yet to surpass the previous all-time-highs last achieved in 2021. By whichever metric is analyzed the launch of spot ether ETFs has fallen flat when compared to spot bitcoin ETFs.
以太坊 ETF 产品的资金流出凸显了这一缓慢的开局,单周一资金流出量接近 8000 万美元,这是自 2024 年 7 月 9800 万美元流出数据以来的最高水平。而比特币则增长了 50% 以上2024 年(自推出现货 ETF 产品以来),以太坊仅上涨了约 15%,尚未超过 2021 年创下的历史新高。无论采用哪种指标进行分析,现货以太坊 ETF 的推出都持平与现货比特币 ETF 相比。
Let’s take a look at a few of the reasons why, despite serving as the blockchain of choice for many Layer 2 applications, the ether ETF has gotten off to a slow start.
让我们来看看尽管以太坊 ETF 作为许多第 2 层应用程序的首选区块链,但起步缓慢的几个原因。
Bitcoin Is Synonymous With Crypto
比特币是加密货币的代名词
Even though the cryptoasset space has expanded dramatically in just the last several years, the reality remains that in most media and institutional conversations, bitcoin is still the unquestioned leader. This can be observed either through anecdotally observing business media coverage and corporate announcements, and by watching the actions of TradFi institutions and nation-states alike.
尽管加密资产空间在过去几年中急剧扩张,但现实仍然是,在大多数媒体和机构对话中,比特币仍然是毫无疑问的领导者。这可以通过观察商业媒体报道和公司公告,以及观察 TradFi 机构和民族国家的行为来观察。
Bitcoin ETFs have attracted billions in investment while sending the price of bitcoin up substantially, while corporate purchasers such as Microstrategy continue to focus on exclusively purchasing bitcoin. Larry Fink and Blackrock have issued public facing documents touting the appeal and upside of bitcoin, and nations such as El Salvador and more recently Bhutan have amassed stockpiles of bitcoin.
比特币 ETF 吸引了数十亿美元的投资,同时大幅上涨了比特币的价格,而 Microstrategy 等企业购买者继续专注于专门购买比特币。拉里·芬克(Larry Fink)和贝莱德(Blackrock)发布了面向公众的文件,宣传比特币的吸引力和优势,萨尔瓦多和最近的不丹等国家也积累了比特币库存。
Bitcoin continues to dominate the crypto landscape, as well as the dollars that are being allocated by larger institutional investors.
比特币继续主导加密货币领域,以及大型机构投资者配置的美元。
Lack Of Narrative
缺乏叙事
As multi-faceted as the crypto landscape continues to be, the narrative and messaging around bitcoin has remained uniquely consistent since inception. From being labeled as digital gold, or a store or value, or the money of the future the narratives around bitcoin have remained steadfast. Even if the specifics of these narratives, or how well they manifest in the market, investors and regulators alike have become familiar with them to base decision making around these frameworks. This consistency has manifested itself even bitcoin is famously decentralized, has no identified creator, nor does the cryptocurrency have any sort of governing body.
尽管加密货币领域仍然是多面的,但围绕比特币的叙述和信息自诞生以来一直保持着独特的一致性。从被贴上“数字黄金”、“储存手段”、“价值”、“未来货币”的标签,围绕比特币的叙述一直很坚定。即使这些叙述的具体细节,或者它们在市场上的表现如何,投资者和监管机构都已经熟悉它们,以便围绕这些框架做出决策。即使比特币是出了名的去中心化、没有确定的创造者、也没有任何类型的管理机构,这种一致性也已经显现出来。
Ether on the other hand, has seemingly struggled to find a message and/or narrative that is consistent enough, simple enough, or intuitive enough to be seized by mainstream investors. Even though the Ethereum blockchain and the ether token serves as the base layer for many of the enterprise applications that are driving the investment dollars into crypto, the presentation of Ethereum as the internet of the future or other amorphous value propositions have proven difficult for institutional investors to get behind.
另一方面,以太坊似乎很难找到足够一致、足够简单或足够直观的信息和/或叙述,以便被主流投资者抓住。尽管以太坊区块链和以太币是许多企业应用程序的基础层,这些应用程序正在推动加密货币领域的投资,但事实证明,将以太坊作为未来互联网或其他无定形价值主张的呈现对于机构投资者来说是困难的落后。
Price Paradox
价格悖论
Last but certainly not least is the reality that, and directly connected to the primary value proposition of Ethereum and ether at large is the fact that ether is perhaps the token most susceptible to the crypto price paradox. Ether serves as the currency of choice for most of the Layer 2 applications that are driving enterprise adoption; stablecoins, DeFi, DAOs, and even NFTs all (for the most part) run and rely on ether. Even with improvements made via various upgrades – which have substantially increased capacity and reduced cost – the fact remains that pricing services in ether will have exercise downward pressure on a price-per-token basis.
最后但同样重要的事实是,与以太坊和以太币的主要价值主张直接相关的事实是,以太币可能是最容易受到加密货币价格悖论影响的代币。以太币是大多数推动企业采用的第 2 层应用程序的首选货币;稳定币、DeFi、DAO,甚至 NFT(大部分)都运行并依赖于以太坊。即使通过各种升级进行了改进(大大增加了容量并降低了成本),事实仍然是以太坊定价服务将对每个代币的价格产生下行压力。
Put simply any token, be it ether or otherwise, that simultaneously serves as a potential medium of exchange and investment asset (via spot ETFs) is going to need to obtain a medium satisfactory to both interested parties. Given the muted price action of ether following the approval and launch of spot ether ETFs, and the preference of institutions and governments to select bitcoin above other cryptoassets, and it appears that this paradox will continue to exercise influence for the foreseeable future.
简而言之,任何同时充当潜在交易媒介和投资资产(通过现货 ETF)的代币,无论是以太币还是其他代币,都需要获得令双方都满意的媒介。鉴于以太币现货 ETF 获批和推出后价格走势平淡,以及机构和政府更倾向于选择比特币而非其他加密资产,这一悖论似乎在可预见的未来将继续产生影响。
Crypto ETFs have been a positive development for the sector, but not all such instruments deliver equally positive returns.
加密货币 ETF 对该行业来说是一个积极的发展,但并非所有此类工具都能带来同样积极的回报。
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