美国大选节奏及后续影响分析

未来一周，毫无疑问全球关注的焦点将集中在美国大选上。因此，我花了一些时间仔细概述了即将到来的时间表和核心亮点，并展望了后续的影响。

As the U.S. presidential election nears its climax, the announcement of election results will begin on November 5, U.S. time. Due to different state policies regarding ballot processing, counting rules, and mail-in ballots, there are discrepancies in the timing of result announcements. Most swing states will begin voting at 6 a.m. and continue until 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. After voting ends, the counting process begins.

随着美国总统选举接近高潮，选举结果将于美国时间11月5日开始公布。由于国家在选票处理、计票规则和邮寄选票方面的政策不同，结果公布的时间存在差异。大多数摇摆州将于早上 6 点开始投票，一直持续到晚上 7 点至晚上 9 点。投票结束后，计票过程开始。

However, due to different state policies, the timing of result announcements varies. Here’s a summary of some key states where results are often announced later:

但由于国家政策不同，结果公布的时间也有所不同。以下是一些通常稍后公布结果的关键州的摘要：

California allows a longer mail-in ballot receipt period. Mail-in ballots only need to be postmarked on Election Day and arrive by a specified date to be counted. Additionally, due to the state's large population and extended counting time, it is often one of the last states to announce complete results.

加州允许更长的邮寄选票接收期限。邮寄选票只需在选举日盖上邮戳并在指定日期之前送达即可进行计票。此外，由于该州人口众多且计票时间较长，该州往往是最后公布完整结果的州之一。

Pennsylvania typically begins processing mail-in ballots only on Election Day, which slows down the counting process, especially in years with a high number of mail-in ballots. As a key swing state, the vote count in Pennsylvania is usually closely watched, but the counting process is relatively delayed. Therefore, final results are announced several days after Election Day.

宾夕法尼亚州通常只在选举日开始处理邮寄选票，这会减慢计票过程，尤其是在邮寄选票数量较多的年份。作为关键的摇摆州，宾夕法尼亚州的计票工作通常受到密切关注，但计票过程相对延迟。因此，最终结果将在选举日几天后公布。

Michigan and Wisconsin also process mail-in ballots only on Election Day, and as swing states, close vote margins can lead to longer counting times to ensure accuracy. Typically, ballot processing is completed by the evening of the following day.

密歇根州和威斯康星州也只在选举日处理邮寄选票，作为摇摆州，接近的选票差距可能会导致计票时间更长，以确保准确性。通常，选票处理在第二天晚上完成。

Nevada allows mail-in ballots to arrive several days after Election Day, so results may be delayed for a few days, especially in election years with a high volume of ballots.

内华达州允许邮寄选票在选举日几天后送达，因此结果可能会延迟几天，特别是在选票量较大的选举年。

North Carolina allows mail-in ballots to be received up to 9 days after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked before or on Election Day. This often delays the announcement of final results, which typically occurs a week later.

北卡罗来纳州允许在选举日后 9 天内收到邮寄选票，只要这些选票在选举日之前或当天盖上邮戳即可。这通常会延迟最终结果的公布，通常会在一周后公布。

You may notice that aside from California, which is a stronghold for the Democratic Party, most are swing states, with Pennsylvania being a key battleground state. Therefore, the entire game surrounding the election will reach a climax a few days after the popular vote concludes.

大家可能会注意到，除了民主党的大本营加州以外，大部分都是摇摆州，其中宾夕法尼亚州是关键的战场州。因此，围绕选举的整个博弈将会在普选结束几天后达到高潮。

In addition to the presidential election, the results of the U.S. House of Representatives elections are equally important. We know that in the U.S. federal government, the president, the Senate, and the House of Representatives together form the core structure of the separation of powers. The president holds executive power, while the Senate and the House (collectively known as Congress) share legislative power. These three branches are both independent and closely related to achieve checks and balances. The House of Representatives is the lower house of Congress and has the following main powers:

除了总统选举之外，美国众议院选举的结果同样重要。我们知道，在美国联邦政府中，总统、参众两院共同构成了三权分立的核心架构。总统拥有行政权，参议院和众议院（统称为国会）共享立法权。这三个分支既独立又密切相关，实现制衡。众议院是国会下议院，拥有以下主要权力：

To propose, discuss, and pass bills (including bills related to taxation and government spending). After a bill is passed by the House of Representatives, it is sent to the Senate for further discussion and approval. If the Senate passes the bill with any amendments, it is returned to the House of Representatives for a second vote. Only after both houses pass the same bill can it be submitted to the president for approval and enactment.

提出、讨论和通过法案（包括与税收和政府支出有关的法案）。众议院通过法案后，将送交参议院进一步讨论和批准。如果参议院通过了该法案并附带任何修正案，则该法案将返回众议院进行第二次投票。只有参众两院都通过同一法案后，才能提交总统批准和实施。

To conduct investigations and exercise oversight functions over various government departments and agencies. The House of Representatives has the power to conduct investigations and hearings on any matter within its jurisdiction. Through this power, the House of Representatives can supervise and oversee the work of various government departments and agencies, including the executive branch. For example, the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee has broad oversight authority over federal agencies and programs.

对政府各部门和机构进行调查并行使监督职能。众议院有权就其管辖范围内的任何事项进行调查和听证会。通过这一权力，众议院可以监督和监督包括行政部门在内的各个政府部门和机构的工作。例如，众议院监督和政府改革委员会对联邦机构和项目拥有广泛的监督权。

To conduct impeachment proceedings against the president, vice president, or other federal officials. The House of Representatives has the sole power to initiate impeachment proceedings against the president, vice president, or other federal officials for "treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors." If a majority of the House of Representatives votes to impeach an official, the case is then referred to the Senate for a trial. A two-thirds majority vote in the Senate is required to convict and remove the official from office.

对总统、副总统或其他联邦官员进行弹劾程序。众议院拥有以“叛国、贿赂或其他重罪和轻罪”为由对总统、副总统或其他联邦官员启动弹劾程序的唯一权力。如果众议院多数议员投票支持弹劾某官员，该案将被提交参议院审理。需要参议院三分之二多数票才能将该官员定罪并免职。

Therefore, it can be said that the distribution of the House determines the difficulty for the president to implement his economic policies. A president whose party does not hold a majority in the House is often referred to as a "minority president," making it generally very difficult to push through legislation. The House elections are held every two years, and in election years, the House elections and presidential elections are usually held on the same day, typically on the first Tuesday of November in even-numbered years. On this day, voters will cast their votes for the president and all 435 House seats. Thus, the results of the two elections are usually announced in a similar timeframe, although the specific order may vary. However, generally speaking, due to smaller House districts, the counting of ballots is faster, so the results are usually available earlier.

因此，可以说众议院的分配决定了总统实施经济政策的难度。其政党在众议院不占多数的总统通常被称为“少数派总统”，这使得推动立法通常非常困难。众议院选举每两年举行一次，在选举年，众议院选举和总统选举通常在同一天举行，偶数年通常在 11 月的第一个星期二举行。这一天，选民将投票选出总统和全部 435 个众议院席位。因此，两次选举的结果通常在相似的时间范围内公布，尽管具体顺序可能有所不同。不过，一般来说，由于众议院选区较小，计票速度较快，因此结果通常会较早出炉。

In previous articles, we have analyzed the economic policies of both parties. Here, I will briefly review them. The Democratic Party, represented

在之前的文章中，我们分析过双方的经济政策。在这里，我将简要回顾一下它们。民主党代表