经济数据增加了利率的不确定性

美元最初因强劲的私人就业数据而上涨，ADP 报告称，尽管罢工和飓风可能造成干扰，但 10 月份的招聘意外激增。

The dollar index rose on Thursday, recovering from a seven-month low hit in the previous session, as robust U.S. private payroll data and sticky inflation readings countered weaker-than-expected third-quarter GDP growth.

美元指数周四上涨，从前一交易日触及的七个月低点回升，因强劲的美国私人就业数据和粘性通胀数据抵消了弱于预期的第三季度GDP增长。

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, gained 0.2%, recovering some ground after falling to a low of 102.78 on Wednesday, its weakest level since April 2023.

衡量美元兑一篮子主要货币的美元指数上涨0.2%，在周三跌至2023年4月以来的最低水平102.78后收复部分失地。

At last check in New York, the dollar index was up 0.18% at 103.33.

截至纽约汇市，美元指数上涨0.18%至103.33。

The dollar initially gained after ADP reported a strong increase in October private payrolls, countering expectations of a slowdown.

在 ADP 报告 10 月份私人就业人数强劲增长，抵消了经济放缓的预期后，美元最初上涨。

The dollar briefly extended gains after data showed that U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product increased at a solid 2.8% annualized rate, though weaker than the 3% economists had anticipated.

数据显示美国第三季度国内生产总值年化增长率稳定在 2.8%，但低于经济学家预期的 3%，美元短暂延续涨势。

The dollar gave up some ground after the GDP reading, with traders now awaiting Thursday's personal consumption expenditures price index data for further cues on the Federal Reserve's rate path.

GDP数据公布后，美元下跌，交易员目前正在等待周四的个人消费支出价格指数数据，以获取有关美联储利率路径的进一步线索。

"This data adds to the evidence that the U.S. is still on course for a 'soft landing' as growth remains resilient, helped by strength in consumer spending, business investment, and net exports," said Michael Brown, senior markets analyst at online broker Pepperstone in Melbourne.

在线经纪商高级市场分析师迈克尔·布朗表示：“这一数据进一步证明，在消费者支出、商业投资和净出口强劲的帮助下，美国仍将实现‘软着陆’，增长仍保持弹性。”墨尔本的佩珀斯通。

"Still to come this week are PCE inflation figures, which will provide the final piece of the puzzle and could influence traders' outlook for the Fed's terminal rate and the timing of rate cuts.”

“本周仍将公布个人消费支出通胀数据，这将提供最后一块拼图，并可能影响交易者对美联储最终利率和降息时机的前景。”

Traders are pricing in a 63% probability of a 50-basis-point increase by the Fed at its December meeting and see the terminal rate reaching a peak of around 4.89% by mid-2024.

交易员预计美联储在 12 月会议上加息 50 个基点的可能性为 63%，并预计最终利率到 2024 年中期将达到 4.89% 左右的峰值。

Among other currencies, the British pound fell 0.42% to $1.2961, after hitting a nine-day high earlier in the session.

其他货币中，英镑兑美元下跌0.42%，至1.2961美元，盘中早些时候触及九天高点。

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves unveiled the Labour government's first budget on Wednesday, prioritizing fiscal discipline and stability in public finances.

英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯周三公布了工党政府的第一份预算，优先考虑财政纪律和公共财政稳定。

The budget aims to maintain investor confidence, particularly after the market turmoil sparked by former Prime Minister Liz Truss' tax-cutting policies in 2022.

该预算旨在维持投资者信心，特别是在前总理利兹·特拉斯 (Liz Truss) 2022 年减税政策引发市场动荡之后。

"For Chancellor Reeves, PM Starmer, gilts, the pound, and the entire U.K. economy, there is a huge amount resting on this budget," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

荷兰合作银行外汇策略主管 Jane Foley 表示：“对于里维斯财政大臣、斯塔默首相、英国国债、英镑以及整个英国经济来说，这项预算有巨额资金。”

"The pullback in U.K. bond yields gathered pace as the government's cautious fiscal approach unfolded, putting some pressure on sterling."

“随着政府采取谨慎的财政政策，英国债券收益率的回调步伐加快，给英镑带来了一些压力。”

The euro was flat at $1.0814, as traders digested stronger-than-expected German growth and inflation readings.

由于交易员消化了强于预期的德国经济增长和通胀数据，欧元持平于 1.0814 美元。

German factory orders and industrial output both rose in September, while consumer prices increased by 11.6% year-over-year in October, above expectations.

德国9月份工厂订单和工业产出双双上涨，而10月份消费者价格同比上涨11.6%，高于预期。

The euro initially gained on the German data, which reduced the likelihood of a substantial rate cut by the European Central Bank in December.

欧元最初因德国数据而上涨，该数据降低了欧洲央行12月大幅降息的可能性。

However, the dollar's strength in the second half of the session and weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP growth limited further gains in the euro.

然而，美元后半段走强以及美国GDP增长弱于预期限制了欧元的进一步上涨。

Third-quarter eurozone GDP growth came in at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, which was slightly higher than anticipated and provided some initial support for the euro.

欧元区第三季度GDP环比增长0.4%，略高于预期，为欧元提供了一些初步支撑。