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Coinbase Research 的最新数据揭示了加密货币市场的重大变化:截至 2024 年 9 月,加密货币与股票市场之间的关联度徘徊在 50% 左右,并显示出历史上前所未有的最高点。
Recent data from Coinbase Research has highlighted a significant development in the crypto market. As of September 2024, the correlation between crypto and stock markets has reached an all-time high of around 50%.
Coinbase Research 的最新数据凸显了加密货币市场的重大发展。截至 2024 年 9 月,加密货币与股票市场之间的相关性已达到 50% 左右的历史最高水平。
This close link is largely attributed to the global monetary easing programs undertaken by China and the US. Such economic policies not only strengthen the connection between the two financial markets but also present both opportunities and challenges for investors navigating these interconnected domains.
这种密切联系很大程度上归功于中国和美国实施的全球货币宽松计划。这些经济政策不仅加强了两个金融市场之间的联系,而且为投资者在这些相互关联的领域中航行提供了机遇和挑战。
The synchronization between crypto and stocks becomes particularly evident when considering Bitcoin’s surge past the $64,000 mark and the performance of other crypto-related equities, such as Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR).
当考虑到比特币飙升至 64,000 美元大关以及 Coinbase (COIN) 和 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 等其他加密相关股票的表现时,加密货币与股票之间的同步性变得尤为明显。
This marks a substantial shift from the past, where cryptocurrencies were largely insulated from traditional financial markets. As crypto’s sensitivity to broader macroeconomic conditions evolves, the crypto market is becoming increasingly responsive to world economic policies.
这标志着与过去的重大转变,过去加密货币基本上与传统金融市场隔离。随着加密货币对更广泛的宏观经济条件的敏感性不断变化,加密货币市场对世界经济政策的反应也越来越敏感。
Several key events in the crypto space follow this growing correlation, including the Solana Breakpoint conference in Singapore and the TOKEN2049 event in Singapore. These developments coincide with the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate strategy, where a 50-basis-point rate decrease elicited positive reactions in both the stock and crypto markets.
加密货币领域的几个关键事件都遵循着这种日益增长的相关性,包括新加坡的 Solana Breakpoint 会议和新加坡的 TOKEN2049 活动。这些事态发展与美联储激进的利率策略相吻合,降息 50 个基点在股票和加密货币市场引起了积极反应。
Indeed, US market futures and crypto values rose in tandem, with many US stocks hitting all-time highs. Statistics from Bloomberg further attest to this trend, indicating that the 40-day correlation coefficient between the top 100 cryptocurrencies and the S&P 500 had risen to 0.67.
事实上,美国市场期货和加密货币价值同步上涨,许多美国股票创下历史新高。彭博社的统计数据进一步证明了这一趋势,表明前 100 名加密货币与标准普尔 500 指数之间的 40 天相关系数已升至 0.67。
At 0.72, the last time this coefficient reached such high levels, it suggests that traditional and crypto finance have grown ever more entwined. Orbit Markets co-founder Caroline Mauron sheds light on the macroeconomic factors behind this tendency, highlighting that these macro factors, driven by the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, are currently guiding crypto values and will likely continue to do so.
上次该系数达到如此高的水平时为 0.72,这表明传统金融和加密金融已经变得更加紧密地交织在一起。 Orbit Markets 联合创始人 Caroline Mauron 揭示了这一趋势背后的宏观经济因素,强调这些宏观因素在美联储宽松周期的推动下,目前正在引导加密货币价值,并且可能会继续如此。
Co-founder of Orbit Markets Caroline Mauron clarified the macroeconomic causes behind this tendency. She underlined that because the Federal Reserve keeps its easing cycle, these macro factors are currently guiding crypto values and would probably keep doing so.
Orbit Markets 联合创始人 Caroline Mauron 阐明了这一趋势背后的宏观经济原因。她强调,由于美联储保持宽松周期,这些宏观因素目前正在引导加密货币价值,并且可能会继续如此。
This represents a major change from the past since cryptocurrencies mostly functioned free from traditional financial markets. The crypto market is becoming more reactive to world economic policies as its sensitivity to more general macroeconomic conditions develops.
这代表着与过去相比的重大变化,因为加密货币大多不受传统金融市场的影响。随着加密货币市场对更普遍的宏观经济状况的敏感性的发展,它对世界经济政策的反应变得更加敏感。
Among this rising correlation, Ethereum has notably outpaced Bitcoin, with an 8% increase over the latter in the week following the Federal Reserve decision. This move reflects a growing interest in altcoins among investors, highlighting the changing dynamics of the crypto market.
在这种不断上升的相关性中,以太坊的表现明显超过了比特币,在美联储做出决定后的一周内,以太坊比比特币增长了 8%。此举反映出投资者对山寨币的兴趣日益浓厚,凸显了加密货币市场动态的变化。
However, Ethereum’s recent performance also raises questions regarding its sustainability. With the recent sale of 100 ETH by the Ethereum Foundation, out of a total of 3,566 ETH sold this year, queries arise concerning the potential impact on market sentiment and the broader Ethereum ecosystem.
然而,以太坊最近的表现也引发了对其可持续性的质疑。以太坊基金会最近出售了 100 枚 ETH,今年共出售了 3,566 枚 ETH,人们开始质疑这对市场情绪和更广泛的以太坊生态系统的潜在影响。
Moreover, Layer 0, gaming, and scaling solutions continue to be strong performers, with growth of 9%, 17%, and 11%, respectively, over the past week. These developments showcase that investors are exploring opportunities in other crypto assets that have demonstrated resilience and growth potential, expanding their interests beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
此外,Layer 0、游戏和扩展解决方案继续表现强劲,过去一周分别增长了 9%、17% 和 11%。这些事态发展表明,投资者正在探索其他具有弹性和增长潜力的加密资产的机会,将他们的兴趣扩展到比特币和以太坊之外。
As we approach October, a month that has historically favored cryptocurrencies, the market is poised for potentially strong performance. Given that Bitcoin has shown a positive return in eight of the past 10 Octobers, speculation abounds that this trend may persist, especially with the increasing institutional participation in the crypto market.
随着十月份的临近,这个历来对加密货币有利的月份,市场有望迎来强劲的表现。鉴于比特币在过去 10 个月中有 8 个月表现出正回报,人们普遍猜测这种趋势可能会持续下去,特别是随着机构对加密货币市场的参与不断增加。
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