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美国顶级加密货币交易所 Coinbase 认为,数字资产刚刚为未来几个月的大幅上涨做好准备。
Top US crypto exchange Coinbase is convinced that digital assets are about to heat up for big rallies in the months to come.
美国顶级加密货币交易所 Coinbase 坚信,数字资产将在未来几个月内升温并迎来大幅上涨。
In a new research report, Coinbase Institutional says the recent shift in the macroeconomic backdrop suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto are primed for a Q4 surge.
Coinbase 机构在一份新的研究报告中表示,最近宏观经济背景的变化表明比特币(BTC)和加密货币已为第四季度的飙升做好了准备。
According to Coinbase, both the Fed and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) are now pursuing looser monetary policies – conditions that have historically been supportive of higher crypto prices.
据 Coinbase 称,美联储和中国人民银行(PBOC)现在都在推行更宽松的货币政策——历史上一直支持加密货币价格上涨的条件。
“Looking ahead, we retain a constructive outlook for 4Q24 mostly predicated on our favorable view of the current macro environment, alongside the idiosyncratic factors listed above.
“展望未来,我们对 2024 年第四季度保持建设性展望,主要基于我们对当前宏观环境的有利看法,以及上述特殊因素。
For example, just last week, we argued that one of the most significant implications of the Fed decision to cut 50bps (basis points) is that this provides cover for other monetary authorities to take more stimulative measures.
例如,就在上周,我们认为美联储决定降息 50 个基点(基点)的最重要影响之一是,这为其他货币当局采取更多刺激措施提供了掩护。
This has been followed by China revealing a massive double fiscal and monetary stimulus package that includes a record-breaking rate cut, liquidity support for stocks, and a drop in the banking reserve requirement ratio – all in an effort to both ‘boost lending and reduce the existing loan burdens.'”
随后,中国公布了大规模的财政和货币双重刺激计划,其中包括创纪录的降息、对股票的流动性支持以及降低银行存款准备金率——所有这些都是为了“增加贷款并减少贷款”。现有的贷款负担。”
The crypto exchange argues that while the labor market is showing signs of softening, the US economy remains resilient.
该加密货币交易所认为,虽然劳动力市场显示出疲软的迹象,但美国经济仍然具有弹性。
“2Q24 GDP figures have come in above expectations at 3.0% (vs a median 2.9% Bloomberg survey estimate), reaffirming our view that near-term recession risks remain low.”
“2024 年第二季度 GDP 数据超出预期,达到 3.0%(彭博调查预估中位数为 2.9%),再次证实了我们的观点,即近期衰退风险仍然较低。”
Coinbase also notes that crypto and the stock market have been moving in tandem as of late, indicating that Bitcoin and the rest of the digital asset market will follow the S&P 500’s march to new record highs.
Coinbase 还指出,加密货币和股市最近一直在同步发展,这表明比特币和其他数字资产市场将跟随标准普尔 500 指数创下新的历史高点。
“The correlation between crypto and stock markets has been high lately, close to 50%, driven by global easing campaigns in the US and China… Overall, key metrics indicate a robust market. Funding rates are stable and open interest is near average six-month levels. Taken together, it suggests the market is well positioned to head into what is typically a good month for crypto with BTC up eight of the last 10 Octobers.”
“在美国和中国的全球宽松政策的推动下,加密货币和股票市场之间的相关性最近一直很高,接近 50%……总体而言,关键指标表明市场强劲。资金利率稳定,未平仓合约接近六个月平均水平。总而言之,这表明市场处于有利位置,即将进入加密货币的典型好月份,比特币在过去 10 个月中有 8 个月上涨。”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $65,846.
截至撰写本文时,比特币价格为 65,846 美元。
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