我们对Coinbase Global的收入的看法

正如第四季度令人印象深刻的交易收入结果所示，Coinbase的USDC业务在2024年是一个重要的成功故事。

Key takeaways:

关键要点：

As shown by impressive trading revenue results in the fourth quarter, Coinbase’s USDC business was a major success story in 2024.

正如第四季度令人印象深刻的交易收入结果所示，Coinbase的USDC业务在2024年是一个重要的成功故事。

Recovering from its Silicon Valley Bank lows, the stable coin’s market capitalization has set new highs, taking market share from its closest rival, Tether.

从硅谷银行的低点中恢复过来，这款稳定的硬币的市值已经创造了新的高点，从最接近的竞争对手Tether占据了市场份额。

The bottom line: We are increasing our fair value estimate to $170 per share from $150. Despite the increase, we still see the stock as overvalued, as we think cryptocurrency’s strong performance is causing the market to extrapolate too much growth.

最重要的是：我们将公允价值估计提高到每股170美元的$ 150。尽管有所增加，但我们仍然认为该股票被高估了，因为我们认为加密货币的强劲绩效正在导致市场推断出太多的增长。

Coinbase’s largest source of revenue is trading fees, which are assessed as a percentage of the amount being traded on its platform. This ties its long-term revenue growth to the size of the overall cryptocurrency asset class and its market share. Cryptocurrency is still a speculative asset class, and the number of available cryptocurrencies to trade, the space’s eventual market capitalizations, and even its continued existence are still major points of data.

Coinbase的最大收入来源是交易费用，将其评估为其平台上交易金额的百分比。这将其长期收入增长与整体加密货币资产类别及其市场份额的规模联系在一起。加密货币仍然是一种投机性资产类别，可用的加密货币数量，该空间最终的市值以及其持续存在的数量仍然是数据的主要点。

Key stats: Despite rapid growth in Coinbase’s interest income the firm is still heavily exposed to cryptocurrency markets. More than 60% of Coinbase’s revenue in 2024 was transactional.Coinbase Global Stock Price

关键统计数据：尽管Coinbase的利息收入迅速增长，该公司仍在严重暴露于加密货币市场。 Coinbase在2024年收入的60％以上是交易。

Fair Value Estimate for Coinbase

公允价值估计

With its 1-star rating, we believe Coinbase’s stock is significantly overvalued compared with our long-term fair value estimate of $170 per share. Our fair value estimate depends heavily on trading volume assumptions, the rate we expect Coinbase’s trading fees to compress over time, and interest income projections from Coinbase’s partnership with Circle for the stablecoin USDC.

凭借其1星级评级，我们认为Coinbase的股票与我们每股170美元的长期公允价值估算值相比，被高估了。我们的公允价值估算在很大程度上取决于交易量假设，我们期望Coinbase的交易费用随着时间的推移压缩的利率以及Coinbase与Circle的合作伙伴关系的利息收入预测。

Coinbase’s largest source of revenue is trading fees, which are assessed as a percentage of the amount being traded on its platform. This ties its long-term revenue growth to the size of the overall cryptocurrency asset class and its market share. Cryptocurrency is still a speculative asset class, and the number of available cryptocurrencies to trade, the space’s eventual market capitalizations, and even its continued existence are still major unknowns.

Coinbase的最大收入来源是交易费用，将其评估为其平台上交易金额的百分比。这将其长期收入增长与整体加密货币资产类别及其市场份额的规模联系在一起。加密货币仍然是投机性资产类别，可用的加密货币数量，该空间最终的市值以及其持续存在的贸易数量仍然是主要未知数。

Read more about Coinbase Global’s fair value estimate.Coinbase Global Stock vs. Morningstar Fair Value Estimate

阅读有关Coinbase Global的公允价值估算的更多信息。CoinbaseGlobal股票与晨星公允价值估算

Economic Moat Rating

经济护城河评级

In our view, Coinbase has no economic moat despite being the leading cryptocurrency exchange in the United States. Coinbase has carved out a strong place by positioning itself as a reliable and compliant place to buy and sell cryptocurrency in an industry filled with risk, weak security practices, and spotty regulatory enforcement. This has let it charge fees higher than many peers while building a large pool of liquidity on its platform. The company’s reputational advantages have only grown in recent years, following the collapse of one of its largest rivals, FTX, due to financial fraud. While we expect fee compression in the long term, recent events will likely allow Coinbase to continue to charge a premium in the immediate future.

我们认为，尽管是美国领先的加密货币交流，但Coinbase没有经济护城河。 Coinbase通过将自己定位为一个可靠且合规的地方来买卖加密货币，在充满风险，疲软的安全惯例和占有监管执法的行业中，可以脱颖而出。这使它收取的费用比许多同行的费用高，同时在其平台上建立大量的流动性。由于财务欺诈，该公司最大的竞争对手之一FTX崩溃后，该公司的声誉优势仅在近年来增长。尽管我们预计从长远来看收费压缩，但最近的事件可能会使Coinbase在不久的将来继续收取溢价。

Read more about Coinbase Global’s economic moat.Financial Strength

阅读有关Coinbase Global的经济护城河的更多信息。

Coinbase is in a strong financial position, though it is unprofitable and will likely remain so until cryptocurrency market conditions improve. The company ended June 2024 with over $7.2 billion in cash and more than $2.2 billion in cryptocurrency, including over $1 billion in USDC, a cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar. These assets are held against $4.2 billion in debt.

Coinbase处于强大的财务状况，尽管这是无利可图的，并且可能会一直保持这种状态，直到加密货币市场状况改善为止。该公司于2024年6月结束时，现金超过72亿美元，加密货币超过22亿美元，其中包括超过10亿美元的USDC，这是一个固定在美元的加密货币。这些资产持有42亿美元的债务。

The decision to keep strong cash reserves makes sense, given how volatile the company’s revenue generation can be, and it gives Coinbase room to maneuver during prolonged weak cryptocurrency markets. We think staying relatively unleveraged will be an important step in keeping the company financially secure in the long term.

考虑到公司的收入产生的动荡，保留强大的现金储备的决定是有道理的，并且在长期弱的加密货币市场期间为COINBASE提供了机动的空间。我们认为，从长远来看，保持相对尚未掌握将是确保公司在财务上的重要一步。

Read more about Coinbase Global’s financial strength.Risk and Uncertainty

阅读有关Coinbase Global的财务实力的更多信息。风险和不确定性

We give Coinbase a Very High Uncertainty Rating. The firm gets over half its net revenue from trading fees at its exchange business. Fees are charged as a percentage of the underlying assets, creating direct exposure to cryptocurrency prices. In 2022, Coinbase’s revenue fell more than 59% from the prior year as cryptocurrency prices collapsed. This is still a highly speculative area, and the number of active traders on Coinbase’s platform can vary sharply based on market performance. At the moment, this exposure is to the firm’s advantage, but the durability of the current market recovery is a major point of uncertainty. The company also has interest-rate exposure through its participation in USDC, which generates significant interest income.

我们给Coinbase一个非常高的不确定性评级。该公司从交易业务的交易费用中获得了超过一半的净收入。费用作为基础资产的百分比收取，从而直接接触加密货币价格。 2022年，随着加密货币价格崩溃，Coinbase的收入比上一年下降了59％以上。这仍然是一个高度投机的领域，Coinbase平台上的活跃交易者数量可能会根据市场绩效而急剧变化。目前，这种接触对公司的优势是有利的，但是当前市场回收的耐用性是不确定性的主要点。该公司还通过参与USDC来获得利率的利率，该公司产生了可观的利息收入。

There is also a material amount of environmental, social, and governance risk. Coinbase operates with a broad scope. It acts as an asset custodian, broker, and exchange in the cryptocurrency economy. This creates significant potential for conflicts of interest, which could lead to reputational damage or regulatory action. There are also legal and regulatory gray areas in Coinbase’s business. It is possible that some of the assets that trade on its platform could be ruled as unregistered securities forcing the firm to delist them.

还有大量的环境，社会和治理风险。 Coinbase具有广泛的范围。它是加密货币经济中的资产保管人，经纪人和交换。这为利益冲突带来了巨大的潜力，这可能导致声誉损害或监管行动。 Coinbase业务中也有法律和法规灰色地区。在其平台上进行交易的某些资产可能被裁定为未注册的证券，迫使公司将其品尝。

Read more

阅读更多