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贝莱德的最新报告显示,过去六个月比特币与美国股市的相关性非常低。
Investment giant BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) highlighted bitcoin's (BTC) unique properties in its latest report, suggesting that the flagship cryptocurrency might be considered a “risk-off” asset in the long term.
投资巨头贝莱德(NYSE:BLK)在其最新报告中强调了比特币(BTC)的独特属性,表明从长远来看,旗舰加密货币可能被视为“避险”资产。
The report, titled "bitcoin as a unique diversifier," was released last week and highlighted four key points.
该报告题为“比特币作为独特的多元化工具”,于上周发布,强调了四个关键点。
1. Due to its fundamental properties, such as not having a quarterly earnings report or a CEO, bitcoin is fundamentally different from traditional financial assets and must be analyzed in a different way.
1. 由于其基本属性,例如没有季度收益报告或首席执行官,比特币与传统金融资产有根本不同,必须以不同的方式进行分析。
2. Bitcoin's high volatility is often used to classify it as a “risky” asset, which contributes to the discussion that whether it is a "risk-on" or "risk-off" asset. However, the token could be considered a flight-to-safety option because it is scarce, non-sovereign, and decentralized.
2. 比特币的高波动性常常被用来将其归类为“风险”资产,这引发了关于它是“风险偏好”还是“风险规避”资产的讨论。然而,该代币可以被视为一种安全选择,因为它是稀缺的、非主权的和去中心化的。
3. BlackRock also pointed out that the long-term adoption of bitcoin may come from global instability.
3、贝莱德还指出,比特币的长期采用可能来自全球不稳定。
Bitcoin's realized volatility continues to trend downwards
比特币的实际波动率继续呈下降趋势
As time passes, bitcoin's realized volatility continues to decrease, indicating increased stability. In the early years of bitcoin, its realized volatility used to trade over 200%; however, as the asset matured, so did the volatility.
随着时间的推移,比特币的实际波动性持续下降,表明稳定性增强。在比特币诞生之初,其实际波动率曾一度超过 200%;然而,随着资产的成熟,波动性也随之增加。
Since 2018, realized volatility has not exceeded 100% and is currently at 50%. As realized volatility decreases and liquidity increases through financial instruments such as the spot and futures market, this may bring in more sophisticated investors such as options traders. This seems to be on the horizon with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) approval of physically settled options tied to BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF.
自2018年以来,实际波动率从未超过100%,目前为50%。随着现货和期货市场等金融工具的实际波动性下降和流动性增加,这可能会带来更成熟的投资者,例如期权交易者。随着美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 批准与贝莱德现货比特币 ETF 相关的实物结算期权,这似乎即将到来。
BlackRock also asked the question: Is bitcoin risk-on or risk-off? While short-term trading may suggest that bitcoin behaves like a risk-on asset, the data reveals a different narrative over a longer time horizon.
贝莱德还提出了一个问题:比特币是风险规避还是风险规避?虽然短期交易可能表明比特币的行为就像一种风险资产,但从长期来看,数据揭示了不同的情况。
According to data from bitcoin custody service Unchained, “almost all holders (99%+) are in profit if they held for just three years. All bitcoin holders in this class are in profit if they held for at least 5 years."
根据比特币托管服务 Unchained 的数据,“几乎所有持有者(99%+)只要持有三年就能盈利。所有此类比特币持有者只要持有至少 5 年,就能获利。”
We can see this type of mentality on-chain among investors, where over 65% of the circulating bitcoin supply has remained unmoved for more than one year, according to Glassnode. This trend suggests that many investors tend to hold bitcoin because they believe in its store-of-value narrative and view it as a risk-off asset, even though bitcoin has faced multiple 20% corrections in 2024.
根据 Glassnode 的数据,我们可以在链上看到投资者的这种心态,超过 65% 的流通比特币供应量在一年多的时间里保持不变。这一趋势表明,许多投资者倾向于持有比特币,因为他们相信其价值储存的叙述,并将其视为避险资产,尽管比特币在 2024 年曾多次面临 20% 的回调。
BlackRock also showed that bitcoin has a very low correlation to U.S. equities. A graph shows the trailing 6-month S&P 500 correlation with bitcoin; the average correlation is 0.2 since 2015. Sometimes, assets will trade near one-to-one with one another due to external macro factors, most likely in risk-off or liquidity events.
贝莱德还表明,比特币与美国股市的相关性非常低。图表显示了过去 6 个月标准普尔 500 指数与比特币的相关性;自 2015 年以来,平均相关性为 0.2。有时,由于外部宏观因素,最有可能是在避险或流动性事件中,资产之间的交易接近一对一。
The report notes, “These episodes have been short-term in nature and have failed to produce a clear long-term statistically significant correlation relationship.”
报告指出,“这些事件本质上是短期的,未能产生明确的长期统计显着相关关系。”
Continuing with the theme of having a long-term time preference, BlackRock noted that bitcoin tends to outperform other risk-on assets after 60 days following a major geopolitical event.
继续关注长期时间偏好的主题,贝莱德指出,在重大地缘政治事件发生 60 天后,比特币的表现往往优于其他风险资产。
The U.S.- Iran escalation in 2020 saw bitcoin return 20% after 60 days, outperforming gold and S&P 500. This was also the case for Covid-19, the 2020 U.S. election challenges, the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. regional banking crisis and most recently the Yen Carry trade unwind on Aug. 5.
2020 年美国与伊朗的紧张局势升级,比特币在 60 天后回报了 20%,表现优于黄金和标准普尔 500 指数。Covid-19、2020 年美国大选挑战、俄罗斯入侵乌克兰、美国地区银行危机和最近一次是 8 月 5 日日元套利交易平仓。
During the recent Yen carry trade unwind on Aug. 5, which was now 53 days ago, major assets experienced declines on the day. However, bitcoin has risen by 22% since then, with gold and the S&P 500 up roughly 11%.
在 8 月 5 日(距今 53 天)最近的日元套利交易平仓期间,主要资产当天出现下跌。然而,自那时以来,比特币已上涨 22%,黄金和标准普尔 500 指数上涨约 11%。
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