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策略(NASDAQ:MSTR),总部位于SaaS的商业情报公司以前称为MicroStrategy,开创了比特币国库策略,目前正在以730亿美元的价格交易
Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), the SaaS-based business intelligence company formerly known as MicroStrategy that pioneered a bitcoin treasury strategy, is currently trading at a $73 billion market cap, ~1.6x the value of its underlying bitcoin holdings.
策略(NASDAQ:MSTR)是一家总部位于SaaS的商业情报公司,以前称为MicroStrategy,开创了比特币国库策略,目前的市值为730亿美元,其基本比特币持有量的价值约为1.6倍。
This so-called “MSTR premium” has caused much misunderstanding, healthy skepticism and even consternation, but with a decade of deep equities experience, we believe that there are three reasons why the MSTR premium is justified. These are particularly valid during periods of rising bitcoin price expectations, as we are in now.
这种所谓的“ MSTR Premium”引起了许多误解,健康的怀疑甚至震惊,但是有十年的深厚股票经验,我们相信MSTR Premium是合理的三个原因。这些在比特币价格期望上升的期间尤其有效,就像我们现在一样。
First, Strategy takes on leverage by issuing equity and debt to invest the proceeds into bitcoin, earning the difference between the return on bitcoin and its cost of capital (i.e. “carry”). Importantly, Strategy earns this carry not just this year, but also in future years as well, and investors simply present-value this expected future carry and include it in MSTR’s market cap.
首先,战略通过发行权益和债务来利用杠杆作用,将收益投资于比特币,从而获得比特币回报及其资本成本(即“携带”)之间的差额。重要的是,战略不仅赚取了今年,而且在未来的几年中也赚取了这一努力,而投资者只是在预期的未来携带,并将其包括在MSTR的市值中。
In fact, this is a major reason why MSTR’s premium will fluctuate with market expectations of future bitcoin returns. Nevertheless, the first reason MSTR trades at a premium to its BTC holdings is that investors pull future BTC carry to the present.
实际上,这是MSTR的溢价随着未来比特币回报的市场期望而波动的主要原因。然而,MSTR交易以其BTC持有的溢价的第一个原因是,投资者将未来的BTC携带到现在。
Second, Strategy monetizes intelligent capital markets issuance for the benefit of shareholders. It accretes value via convertible debt issuance, where it not only gets paid to offer bitcoin-like returns to the bond market, but also for the volatility inherent in its stock as convertible bond arbitrageurs make more money with a more volatile underlying asset. In addition, MSTR issues equity, mostly through at-the-money equity issuance programs, at a premium to book value, which is by definition accretive to shareholders. In fact, issuing equity at twice book value is tantamount to selling $1 for $2, or conversely, buying BTC at 50% off. This is how Strategy was able to generate a 74% increase in the amount of its bitcoin held per share last year, equivalent to 140,630 BTC, or $14 billion of value for shareholders.
其次,战略将智能资本市场发行货币化,以造福股东的利益。它通过可转换债务发行增值,不仅可以为债券市场提供类似比特币的收益,而且还可以付出类似比特币的回报,还可以通过其股票固有的波动性,因为可兑换债券套利者赚了更多的钱,并具有更大的基础资产。此外,MSTR发行股权,主要是通过额外的股权发行计划,以溢价到账面价值,从定义上讲,这是对股东产生的增值。实际上,以两倍的账面价值发行权益与以2美元的价格出售1美元,或者相反,以50%的折扣购买BTC。这就是战略能够使去年每股比特币的每股比特币数量增加74%,相当于140,630 BTC,股东的价值为140亿美元。
Lastly, the entire construct takes advantage of bitcoin and crypto’s nascency, the fact that cryptocurrencies are in secular expansion and that bitcoin’s price has tended to rise over time.
最后,整个结构利用了比特币和加密货币的纳斯奇,这一事实是加密货币处于世俗的扩张,而比特币的价格随着时间的推移趋于上涨。
For those not yet convinced, we offer the following thought experiment: If I had a magic bank account with $100 USD in it that paid you a 69% interest rate, how much money would you pay me for that? While the answer may vary from person to person, it is likely much more than $100, meaning that the bank account would trade at a premium to its underlying USD (i.e. NAV).
对于尚未说服的人,我们提供以下思想实验:如果我有一个魔术银行帐户,其中有100美元,支付了69%的利率,您会为此付多少钱?虽然答案可能因个人而异,但它可能会超过100美元,这意味着银行帐户将以其基础美元(即NAV)的溢价交易。
This is exactly what is happening with MSTR, as it has increased its BTC per share at a 69% annual rate since it began investing in bitcoin in August 2020. This increase in BTC per share (i.e. in-kind yield) is higher during bull markets and lower during bear markets, but it has generally risen over time. And while there is no guarantee that Strategy will continue to increase its BTC per share in the future, MSTR is guiding for a 15%+ increase this year and 6-10% in each of the following two years.
这正是MSTR的发生,因为它自2020年8月开始投资于比特币以来,以69%的年率增加了其BTC的每股收益。在牛市中,BTC的每股BTC每股增加(即实物产量)的增长较高,而在熊市期间,这种增长量较高,但随着时间的推移,它的这种增加。尽管无法保证战略将来会继续增加其BTC的每股BTC,但MSTR指导今年增加15%++在随后的两年中的每一年,每股6-10%。
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