比特币因监管乐观而上涨，Vaneck 预测将创下历史新高

Vaneck 分析师 Nathan Frankovitz 和 Matthew Sigel 认为，比特币价格飙升至历史新高反映了数字资产的变革时刻

VanEck analysts are bullish on bitcoin, predicting more all-time highs fueled by favorable regulatory developments.

VanEck 分析师看好比特币，预计在有利的监管发展推动下，比特币将创下历史新高。

According to the firm's mid-November analysis, bitcoin's recent price surge is fueled by investor optimism over policy shifts following President-elect Donald Trump's victory. On election night, bitcoin surged nearly 9% to reach $75,000 as markets reacted to Trump's campaign promises to eliminate the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) “regulation-by-enforcement” approach and pave the way for crypto-friendly legislation.

根据该公司 11 月中旬的分析，比特币最近的价格飙升是由于投资者对当选总统唐纳德·特朗普获胜后政策转变的乐观情绪推动的。选举之夜，比特币飙升近 9%，达到 75,000 美元，市场对特朗普的竞选承诺做出反应，承诺取消美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 的“强制监管”方法，并为加密货币友好型立法铺平道路。

“Trump has already begun appointing pro-crypto figures throughout the executive branch, while the Republican party now boasts a unified government, heightening the potential for supportive legislation,” said Frankovitz and Sigel. “Such legislation includes proposals like creating a national Bitcoin reserve — the odds of which are trading at 34% on Polymarket as of November 19th — and rewriting crypto market structure and stablecoin draft legislation.”

弗兰科维茨和西格尔表示：“特朗普已经开始在整个行政部门任命支持加密货币的人物，而共和党现在拥有一个统一的政府，这增强了支持性立法的潜力。” “此类立法包括建立国家比特币储备等提案（截至 11 月 19 日，其在 Polymarket 交易的可能性为 34%）以及重写加密货币市场结构和稳定币立法草案。”

The analysts also compared the current rally to the post-2020 election rally, during which bitcoin's price more than doubled by year-end, ultimately achieving a 137% gain in 2021. VanEck predicts a similar trajectory this cycle, citing key market indicators.

分析师还将当前的涨势与 2020 年大选后的涨势进行了比较，当时比特币的价格到年底增长了一倍以上，最终在 2021 年实现了 137% 的涨幅。VanEck 援引关键市场指标预测，本轮周期将出现类似的轨迹。

For instance, bitcoin's dominance, a measure of its market share relative to all cryptocurrencies, reached 59% in November, its highest level since March 2021, indicating renewed confidence in the asset.

例如，比特币的主导地位（衡量其相对于所有加密货币的市场份额的指标）在 11 月份达到 59%，这是自 2021 年 3 月以来的最高水平，表明人们对该资产的信心重拾。

VanEck's research also highlighted robust onchain metrics. Bitcoin's network activity remained resilient, with daily transactions approaching all-time highs and transfer volumes increasing by 118% month-over-month. Despite a 15% decline in transaction counts, larger payloads resulted in record-high average transaction sizes.

VanEck 的研究还强调了稳健的链上指标。比特币的网络活动保持弹性，每日交易量接近历史新高，转账量环比增长 118%。尽管交易数量下降了 15%，但更大的有效负载导致平均交易规模创历史新高。

The report further added: “With bitcoin's price trading at all-time highs, approximately 99% of all bitcoin addresses are currently profitable.”

该报告进一步补充道：“随着比特币的价格交易处于历史高位，目前大约 99% 的比特币地址都是盈利的。”

While optimistic about bitcoin's near-term performance, Frankovitz and Sigel cautioned against potential overheating. Their analysis of perpetual futures funding rates, a key indicator of market sentiment, showed that sustained high rates often coincide with cycle tops.

虽然弗兰科维茨和西格尔对比特币的近期表现持乐观态度，但他们对潜在的过热提出了警告。他们对永续期货融资利率（市场情绪的关键指标）的分析表明，持续的高利率往往与周期顶部同时发生。

As of mid-November, funding rates approached levels historically linked to short-term gains but signaled diminishing returns over longer time horizons. Bitcoin's unrealized profit metrics further supported the bullish outlook.

截至 11 月中旬，融资利率接近与短期收益相关的历史水平，但表明长期来看回报会递减。比特币的未实现利润指标进一步支持了看涨前景。

VanEck noted that relative unrealized profits, a measure of paper gains, were within a range typically associated with the middle stages of bull markets. However, should these levels approach historical peaks, it could signal an increased risk of market corrections as profit-taking accelerates.

VanEck 指出，相对未实现利润（衡量账面收益的指标）处于通常与牛市中期相关的范围内。然而，如果这些水平接近历史峰值，则可能预示着随着获利回吐的加速，市场调整的风险增加。

“Historically, elevated 30-day moving average (DMA) RUP levels — especially above 0.60 and 0.70 — indicate strong market sentiment and potential overheating,” VanEck's report noted.

VanEck 的报告指出：“从历史上看，30 日移动平均线 (DMA) RUP 水平升高——尤其是高于 0.60 和 0.70——表明市场情绪强劲，并可能出现过热。”

Retail interest also showed signs of recovery. According to VanEck, search term popularity for “crypto” remained well below previous bull market peaks, suggesting that the current rally could continue to grow before reaching speculative excess.

零售兴趣也显示出复苏的迹象。 VanEck 表示，“加密货币”的搜索词受欢迎程度仍远低于之前牛市的峰值，这表明当前的涨势可能会继续增长，然后达到投机过度。

Meanwhile, VanEck highlighted increased public attention, with trading platform engagement, such as the Coinbase app surging to a top-10 rank.

与此同时，VanEck 强调了公众关注度的增加，Coinbase 应用程序等交易平台的参与度飙升至前十名。

VanEck highlighted the crucial role of the regulatory environment in shaping bitcoin's future. The firm anticipates that Trump's administration will repeal restrictive measures like the SEC's accounting bulletin and pave the way for broader adoption by encouraging banks to offer crypto custody solutions.

VanEck 强调了监管环境在塑造比特币未来方面的关键作用。该公司预计特朗普政府将废除美国证券交易委员会会计公告等限制性措施，并鼓励银行提供加密托管解决方案，为更广泛采用铺平道路。

Moreover, legislation enabling stablecoin issuance by state-chartered banks could bolster U.S. dominance in the digital asset ecosystem.

此外，允许国有银行发行稳定币的立法可能会巩固美国在数字资产生态系统中的主导地位。