投资者押注特朗普当选，比特币涨至历史新高

根据 Coin Metrics 的数据，旗舰加密货币的价格触及创纪录的 75,000 美元。

Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $75,000 on Tuesday evening as investors bet on former President Donald Trump gaining an edge in the U.S. election.

由于投资者押注前总统唐纳德·特朗普在美国大选中获得优势，比特币周二晚间触及 75,000 美元的历史新高。

Bitcoin was last trading up 10% in the past 24 hours at $74,315.91, according to Coin Metrics. It hit its previous record high of $73,797.68 on March 14 and traded in a narrow range below $70,000 for most of the year since then.

根据 Coin Metrics 的数据，比特币在过去 24 小时内上涨 10%，至 74,315.91 美元。该股于 3 月 14 日创下历史新高 73,797.68 美元，此后一年内大部分时间都在 70,000 美元以下的窄幅区间内交易。

The price of bitcoin increased on Tuesday as Trump took an early lead in the Electoral College, though none of the major swing states had yet been called by NBC News.

周二，随着特朗普在选举人团选举中领先，比特币价格上涨，尽管 NBC 新闻尚未对主要摇摆州进行投票。

Coinbase rose 3% in after hours trading, while MicroStrategy advanced 4%.

Coinbase 在盘后交易中上涨 3%，而 MicroStrategy 上涨 4%。

Investors expect bitcoin trading to be choppy until a clear winner is declared. A victory for Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to bring risk of downside moves to the price of bitcoin, while traders anticipate a bump in price in the event of a win by former President Donald Trump.

投资者预计，在宣布明显的赢家之前，比特币交易将会波动。副总统卡马拉·哈里斯的胜利预计将给比特币价格带来下行风险，而交易员预计，如果前总统唐纳德·特朗普获胜，比特币价格将会上涨。

"The election is having a massive influence on crypto," said Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise Asset Management. "Expect bitcoin – and crypto more broadly – to be choppy in the days ahead … until we have definitive election results."

Bitwise 资产管理公司研究主管 Ryan Rasmussen 表示：“这次选举对加密货币产生了巨大影响。” “预计比特币——以及更广泛的加密货币——在未来几天会出现波动……直到我们得到明确的选举结果。”

"If Trump wins, I believe we'll see new all-time highs," Rasmussen added. "If Harris wins, I expect a decent short-term sell-off, with prices taking a month or two to recover. But eventually, either way, I think we go higher."

“如果特朗普获胜，我相信我们将看到新的历史高点，”拉斯穆森补充道。 “如果哈里斯获胜，我预计短期内会出现相当大的抛售，价格需要一两个月才能恢复。但最终，无论哪种方式，我认为我们都会走高。”

In the 2012, 2016 and 2020 elections, bitcoin saw returns of roughly 87%, 44% and 145% in the 90 days following election day, respectively. That's in part because election years happen to fall on Bitcoin halving years, when the supply of the cryptocurrency ratchets downward. Post election returns have also tended to align with major Federal Reserve policy shifts. This year, the market is looking forward to further interest rate reductions.

在 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年的选举中，比特币在选举日后 90 天内的回报率分别约为 87%、44% 和 145%。部分原因是选举年恰逢比特币减半年，此时加密货币的供应量逐渐下降。选举后的回报也往往与美联储的重大政策转变保持一致。今年，市场期待进一步降息。

At just below $70,000, bitcoin has been trading at its fair value price heading into election day, according to CryptoQuant. That means that if the election proves to be a positive catalyst in the coming days, bitcoin can rally and is poised to establish a new record, CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno said.

根据 CryptoQuant 的数据，在选举日之前，比特币的交易价格略低于 70,000 美元。 CryptoQuant 分析师 Julio Moreno 表示，这意味着如果选举在未来几天被证明是一个积极的催化剂，比特币可能会反弹并有望创下新纪录。

"For now, everyone we've spoken to is keeping their powder dry," said James Davies, CEO at crypto futures and options trading platform Crypto Valley Exchange. "I've heard from numerous leading market makers and traders and can say with conviction that almost everyone is set up to react. They don't even know which way markets will go based on [the] result. There's likely to be massive short-term volatility whichever outcome."

加密货币期货和期权交易平台 Crypto Valley Exchange 首席执行官詹姆斯·戴维斯 (James Davies) 表示：“目前，我们采访过的每个人都保持着警惕。” “我从众多领先的做市商和交易员那里听说过，并且可以确信地说，几乎每个人都准备好做出反应。他们甚至不知道市场将根据结果走向何方。可能会出现大量空头- 期限波动，无论结果如何。”

This year's presidential election has been called the most important one in the crypto industry's lifetime. Many view a Harris win as a threat to crypto, the extent of which has been debated throughout this election cycle. Trump, on the other hand, is seen by many as a force for good in the industry after he presented himself earlier this year as the pro-crypto candidate and has been courting the industry more directly than Harris has.

今年的总统选举被称为加密货币行业一生中最重要的一次。许多人认为哈里斯的胜利是对加密货币的威胁，其程度在整个选举周期中一直存在争议。另一方面，特朗普在今年早些时候以支持加密货币的候选人身份出现后，被许多人视为该行业的一股正义力量，并且一直比哈里斯更直接地讨好该行业。

Many voters are concerned about the state of the government deficit, which rose 8% in the 2024 fiscal year to $1.8 trillion, and increased tax cuts promised by both candidates. Bitcoin, like gold, is seen by many investors as a hedge against the potential for fiscal and monetary policy that combine to reduce the value of the dollar and lift inflation.

许多选民担心政府赤字状况（2024 财年政府赤字增加 8%，达到 1.8 万亿美元），以及两位候选人承诺的加大减税力度。与黄金一样，比特币被许多投资者视为对冲财政和货币政策潜力的对冲工具，财政和货币政策结合起来会降低美元价值并推高通胀。