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由于全球宏观经济发展推动风险资产上涨,比特币价格今天上涨,升至 7 月以来的最高水平。
Bitcoin prices rallied to their highest since July on Friday as a combination of global macroeconomic developments fueled gains in risk-on assets.
由于全球宏观经济发展推动风险资产上涨,比特币价格周五上涨至 7 月以来的最高水平。
The world’s most valuable digital currency by total market capitalization approached $66,000 this afternoon, according to Coinbase data provided by TradingView. After experiencing these gains, the cryptocurrency was trading at its loftiest value since late July.
根据 TradingView 提供的 Coinbase 数据,按总市值计算,全球最有价值的数字货币今天下午接近 66,000 美元。在经历了这些上涨之后,加密货币的交易价格达到了 7 月下旬以来的最高水平。
Major U.S. stock indices also increased, with the S&P 500 setting a fresh, all-time high, Google Finance data indicates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite rose during the day.
谷歌财经数据显示,美国主要股指也上涨,标准普尔 500 指数创下新的历史新高。道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数当天上涨。
“With the S&P 500 putting in its ATH, and the still-strong correlation between it and BTC, it’s not a surprise that BTC finally broke through $65k again,” Tim Enneking, managing partner of Psalion, stated via emailed comments.
Psalion 管理合伙人 Tim Enneking 在电子邮件评论中表示:“随着标准普尔 500 指数进入 ATH,并且它与 BTC 之间的相关性仍然很强,BTC 最终再次突破 6.5 万美元也就不足为奇了。”
When explaining what drove this latest appreciation, several factors were cited by analysts, ranging from the effects of last week’s Federal Reserve rate cut to the Chinese government's recent stimulus announcement.
在解释推动最新升值的原因时,分析师列举了几个因素,从上周美联储降息的影响到中国政府最近宣布的刺激措施。
John Haar, managing director at Swan Bitcoin, spoke to these developments.
Swan Bitcoin 董事总经理约翰·哈尔 (John Haar) 谈到了这些进展。
“Bitcoin’s price appears to be responding to large macro trends, such as continued US fiscal deficits, the Fed’s interest rate cuts and easier monetary policy, and China’s announcement this week of fiscal and monetary stimulus, all of which benefit global liquidity and risk assets, including Bitcoin,” he said through email.
“比特币的价格似乎正在对宏观趋势做出反应,例如美国持续的财政赤字、美联储的降息和宽松的货币政策,以及中国本周宣布的财政和货币刺激措施,所有这些都有利于全球流动性和风险资产,包括比特币,”他通过电子邮件说道。
Mike Marshall, senior researcher at Amberdata, also weighed in.
Amberdata 的高级研究员 Mike Marshall 也发表了看法。
“Bitcoin’s surge past $65,000 is driven by a combination of macroeconomic shifts and institutional interest,” he asserted in an emailed message.
“比特币飙升至 65,000 美元以上是由宏观经济变化和机构利益共同推动的,”他在一封电子邮件中断言。
“The Federal Reserve’s recent 50 bps rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, sparked optimism in speculative markets like Bitcoin,” said Marshall.
马歇尔表示:“美联储最近降息 50 个基点,将联邦基金利率降至 4.75% 至 5% 的范围,引发了比特币等投机市场的乐观情绪。”
“Moreover, the SEC’s approval of options for BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust opens new institutional avenues, potentially triggering a gamma squeeze that could amplify price increases as demand for options grows,” he stated, referring to the government regulator’s recent decision to authorize these new equity-based financial instruments.
他表示:“此外,美国证券交易委员会批准贝莱德 iShares 比特币信托的期权开辟了新的机构途径,可能引发伽马挤压,随着期权需求的增长,可能会放大价格上涨。”他指的是政府监管机构最近决定授权这些新股权基于金融工具。
While several experts who provided input for this article focused on macroeconomic developments, one analyst added another perspective, highlighting the performance bitcoin has traditionally generated during the months of September and October.
虽然为本文提供意见的几位专家主要关注宏观经济发展,但一位分析师补充了另一种观点,强调了比特币传统上在 9 月和 10 月产生的表现。
“Bitcoin’s recent climb to $65,000 is consistent with its historical performance patterns, particularly when comparing September and October,” said Eliézer Ndinga, VP, head of strategy and research at 21Shares.
21Shares 副总裁兼战略与研究主管 Eliézer Ndinga 表示:“比特币最近攀升至 65,000 美元,与其历史表现模式相符,特别是在比较 9 月和 10 月时。”
“Historically, September has been one of the weakest months for Bitcoin, with average monthly returns of around -6%, reflecting a period of market consolidation and lower trading volumes,” he noted.
他指出:“从历史上看,9 月份是比特币最疲软的月份之一,平均月回报率约为 -6%,反映了市场整合和交易量下降的时期。”
“In contrast, October has traditionally delivered much stronger performance, averaging gains of approximately 10-15% over the past decade,” Ndinga specified.
Ndinga 指出:“相比之下,10 月份传统上表现要强劲得多,过去十年平均涨幅约为 10-15%。”
“This seasonal trend, often referred to as the ‘October effect,’ is driven by increased market activity and improved sentiment heading into the final quarter of the year.”
“这种季节性趋势通常被称为‘十月效应’,是由市场活动增加和进入今年最后一个季度的情绪改善推动的。”
Disclosure: I own some bitcoin, bitcoin cash, litecoin, ether, EOS and SOL.
披露:我拥有一些比特币、比特币现金、莱特币、以太币、EOS 和 SOL。
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