比特币低于$ 90000，许多声音将这种下降归因于最近在Bybit Exchange的史诗般的盗窃事件

昨天，整个市场再次遇到寒意，比特币低于90,000美元。许多声音将这种下降归因于最近在Bybit Exchange的史诗般的盗窃事件。

Yesterday, the entire market encountered a chill again, with Bitcoin falling below $90,000. Many voices attribute this decline to the recent epic theft incident at the Bybit exchange. Although the exchange's efforts and various collaborations have led to a relatively proper handling of the incident, people are concerned that the stolen ETH will create significant selling pressure on the market.

昨天，整个市场再次遇到寒意，比特币低于90,000美元。许多声音将这种下降归因于最近在Bybit Exchange的史诗般的盗窃事件。尽管交流的努力和各种合作导致了对事件的相对适当的处理，但人们担心被盗的ETH将在市场上造成巨大的销售压力。

In fact, whether this selling pressure actually occurs or not, this incident will certainly have a considerable impact on market sentiment. Additionally, some recently released data from the U.S. fell short of expectations, and the potential negative impacts of Trump's latest policies, among other factors, will also exert some pressure on the crypto market.

实际上，无论是否实际发生这种销售压力，这一事件肯定会对市场情绪产生重大影响。此外，一些最近发布的美国数据尚未达到预期，特朗普最新政策的潜在负面影响以及其他因素也将对加密货币市场施加一些压力。

The current crypto market has become like a "startled bird," where any external or internal disturbance could lead to a market downturn.

当前的加密货币市场已经变得像“吓了一鸟”，任何外部或内部干扰都可能导致市场衰退。

Aside from these matters, there is another issue that has recently garnered significant attention: Pump.fun is set to launch its own AMM exchange. Once this news broke, the token of the Raydium exchange, which is heavily reliant on Solana meme coins, also faced a significant impact.

除了这些问题，还有另一个问题最近引起了人们的重大关注：pump.fun将推出自己的AMM交易所。一旦这一消息破裂，Raydium Exchange的代币依赖于Solana Meme Coins，也面临着重大影响。

On the surface, this seems like Pump.fun doesn't want to let profits flow to outsiders; since the exchange has earned such substantial profits, why not do it myself? However, it feels more like an escalation of internal competition, where the profits from issuing meme coins are becoming increasingly thin, leading project parties to be less willing to share benefits with other collaborators in the ecosystem.

从表面上看，这似乎是泵。FUN不想让利润流向外部人。由于交易所获得了如此丰厚的利润，为什么不自己做呢？但是，感觉更像是内部竞争的升级，在这种竞争中，发行模因硬币的利润变得越来越薄，领导项目政党不太愿意与生态系统中的其他合作者分享福利。

In the past, such occurrences typically happened during deep bear markets. We have seen many such examples in the Ethereum ecosystem in 2022 and 2023. Although I believe that we have been in a bear market throughout this round of trends, the fact that internal competition has started again at this stage is somewhat surprising.

过去，这种情况通常发生在深熊市。我们已经在2022年和2023年的以太坊生态系统中看到了许多这样的例子。尽管我相信我们在这一轮趋势中一直处于熊市，但在现阶段再次开始内部竞争这一事实令人惊讶。

This also indicates that there currently seems to be no sub-sector in the entire ecosystem that can attract external attention, hence the emergence of internal competition.

这也表明，当前在整个生态系统中似乎没有子行业可以吸引外部注意力，因此内部竞争的出现。

Considering all these conditions and reflecting on the various experiences we've had throughout this round of trends, one phenomenon is becoming increasingly evident: Despite Bitcoin still appearing to be the leader of the entire market and driving the trend of the crypto ecosystem, it is becoming increasingly unable to stand alone.

考虑到所有这些条件，并反思我们在整个趋势中所拥有的各种经验，但一种现象越来越明显：尽管比特币似乎仍然是整个市场的领导者，并推动了加密生态系统的趋势，但它变得越来越无法独自一人。

In the past, when the entire ecosystem faced various shocks, other coins would fall, but Bitcoin could still withstand the impact; now, Bitcoin is also struggling to bear these shocks. This increasingly clearly indicates that without the prosperity of the entire ecosystem, Bitcoin's own price level is also unstable.

过去，当整个生态系统面临各种冲击时，其他硬币将会掉落，但比特币仍然可以承受影响。现在，比特币也在努力承受这些冲击。这越来越清楚地表明，如果没有整个生态系统的繁荣，比特币自己的价格水平也不稳定。

For the entire ecosystem to experience a broad rise, there must be a true explosion of applications. Without technological, model, and business innovations, the advancement of the entire crypto ecosystem can only rely on Bitcoin's "digital gold" concept for support. However, this concept cannot sustain the ecosystem in the long term, nor can it support Bitcoin's price level for an extended period.

为了使整个生态系统经历广泛的上升，必须对应用进行真正的爆炸。如果没有技术，模型和业务创新，整个加密生态系统的进步只能依靠比特币的“数字黄金”概念来获得支持。但是，从长远来看，这个概念无法维持生态系统，也无法在长期内支持比特币的价格水平。

Since Bitcoin broke through $100,000 in early December last year, it has hovered around that level. Various positive news that followed has almost failed to push its price higher, but any negative news from within or outside the ecosystem could potentially drop Bitcoin's price below $100,000 at any time.

自去年12月上旬比特币破产以来，它已经徘徊在该水平上。随后的各种积极新闻几乎无法将其价格提高提高，但是任何来自生态系统内部或之外的负面消息可能会随时将比特币的价格下降到100,000美元以下。

Therefore, I believe that if the crypto ecosystem does not experience another explosion in the future, even if policies like Bitcoin becoming a national reserve in the U.S. are truly implemented, the upside potential for Bitcoin in this round of trends will be very limited. If any further negative information arises from external or internal sources, Bitcoin's price may even continue to decline.

因此，我相信，即使像比特币这样的政策成为美国国家储备的政策确实实施了，即使将来的加密生态系统不会在将来遭受另一场爆炸式爆炸，但在这一轮趋势中，比特币的上涨潜力将非常有限。如果外部或内部来源产生了任何进一步的负面信息，比特币的价格甚至可能会继续下降。

I once speculated that this round of trends might peak between March and August, but looking at it now, unless a miracle occurs within the ecosystem, otherwise, under the current circumstances, even if there is a peak, it will likely be a lackluster trend.

我曾经猜测，这一轮趋势可能在3月至8月之间达到顶峰，但是现在看它，除非生态系统内发生奇迹，否则在当前情况下，即使有峰值，也可能是一个平淡无奇的趋势。