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全球最大的加密货币本月上涨了 10% 以上,打破了这一时期价格通常下跌的历史趋势。
Bitcoin is set for one of its best monthly performances in years, defying a historical trend that usually sees prices decline during this time.
比特币将迎来多年来最好的月度表现之一,这违背了这一时期价格通常下跌的历史趋势。
The world’s largest cryptocurrency has risen over 10% this month, helped by a wave of global interest rate cuts, notably from the US Federal Reserve, that are boosting market confidence.
得益于全球降息浪潮(尤其是美联储的降息浪潮),全球最大的加密货币本月上涨了 10% 以上,这提振了市场信心。
Bitcoin is trading at around $65,334 on recent Friday, up 1.2% on the day. It has risen 56% so far this year, aided by heavy inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, but is still below a peak of $73,798 hit in March.
最近周五,比特币交易价格约为 65,334 美元,当日上涨 1.2%。得益于美国比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)的大量资金流入,今年迄今为止,比特币价格已上涨 56%,但仍低于 3 月份触及的 73,798 美元的峰值。
Bitcoin has tended to perform poorly in September. Over the past decade, the average decline in Bitcoin’s price during the month has been about 5.9%, according to a recent analysis by crypto data firm IntoTheBlock.
比特币在 9 月份的表现往往不佳。根据加密数据公司 IntoTheBlock 最近的分析,在过去十年中,比特币价格在一个月内的平均跌幅约为 5.9%。
But this year marks a distinct departure from that trend. Bitcoin began the month trading around $58,463. A 5.9% loss from that level would put Bitcoin at around $54,988 by the end of September.
但今年明显背离了这一趋势。比特币本月开盘交易价格约为 58,463 美元。如果从该水平下跌 5.9%,到 9 月底,比特币价格将达到 54,988 美元左右。
Instead, if Bitcoin can hold onto its recent gains and close the month near current levels, it will be notching one of its best Septembers in recent memory.
相反,如果比特币能够保持近期的涨幅并在接近当前水平的水平收盘,它将成为近期记忆中最好的 9 月份之一。
"Bitcoin’s correlation with monetary policy is especially strong when it comes to the Federal Reserve," said Sean McNulty, trading director at Arbelos Markets.
Arbelos Markets 交易总监 Sean McNulty 表示:“就美联储而言,比特币与货币政策的相关性尤其强烈。”
"The market is reacting to the Fed cutting rates as quickly as possible. This is creating a ‘risk on’ environment, which is helping Bitcoin,” he added in emailed comments.
“市场正在尽快对美联储降息做出反应。这正在创造一个‘风险’环境,这对比特币有利,”他在电子邮件评论中补充道。
Battered by high inflation and slowing growth, the Fed began raising interest rates earlier this year. But recent data showing easing price pressures and weaker consumer spending have prompted the central bank to shift gears.
受高通胀和经济增长放缓的打击,美联储今年早些时候开始加息。但最近的数据显示价格压力缓解和消费者支出疲软促使央行改变策略。
Earlier this month, the Fed delivered its smallest rate increase since March, a move that was largely priced in by markets.
本月早些时候,美联储实施了自 3 月份以来最小的加息幅度,这一举措很大程度上已被市场消化。
But markets are now speculating on the possibility of the Fed pausing or even cutting rates next year, a scenario that could bode well for riskier assets like Bitcoin.
但市场现在正在猜测美联储明年是否可能暂停甚至降息,这对于比特币等风险较高的资产来说可能是个好兆头。
"Bitcoin is up year-to-date, and this is largely due to the optimism in the market, which is being aided by favorable monetary conditions," McNulty said.
麦克纳尔蒂表示:“比特币今年以来一直在上涨,这主要是由于市场的乐观情绪,而有利的货币条件也推动了这种乐观情绪。”
Bitcoin’s price movements are also being closely watched as the options market reacts to the expiring contracts.
随着期权市场对到期合约的反应,比特币的价格走势也受到密切关注。
"The $65,000 price point is key with numerous options contracts expiring. If Bitcoin fails to hold above $65K decisively, look for a downturn," warned analysts at crypto exchange Kraken in recent commentary.
加密货币交易所 Kraken 的分析师在最近的评论中警告说:“65,000 美元的价格点是众多期权合约到期的关键。如果比特币未能果断地保持在 65,000 美元以上,那么就会出现低迷。”
Meanwhile, smaller cryptocurrencies are also rallying, with dogecoin and XRP posting gains of over 20% and 10%, respectively, over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko.
与此同时,根据 CoinGecko 的数据,较小的加密货币也在上涨,过去 7 天内狗狗币和 XRP 的涨幅分别超过 20% 和 10%。
The broader crypto market recovery comes as investors are shifting their attention away from traditional assets and towards digital currencies like Bitcoin.
随着投资者将注意力从传统资产转向比特币等数字货币,加密货币市场出现了更广泛的复苏。
The central banks’ actions are increasing market liquidity, allowing many investors to pivot into cryptocurrencies.
央行的行动正在增加市场流动性,使许多投资者能够转向加密货币。
This shift is especially evident among institutional investors, who are adding Bitcoin and other digital assets to their portfolios.
这种转变在机构投资者中尤其明显,他们正在将比特币和其他数字资产添加到他们的投资组合中。
The launch and growth of Bitcoin ETFs have been crucial in these dynamics. These funds allow traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly purchasing the cryptocurrency, an endeavor that typically attracts higher levels of risk.
比特币 ETF 的推出和增长在这些动态中至关重要。这些基金允许传统投资者在不直接购买加密货币的情况下获得比特币的投资,这种行为通常会带来更高的风险。
This accessibility has attracted large inflows, which are helping to support Bitcoin’s price movements.
这种可访问性吸引了大量资金流入,这有助于支撑比特币的价格走势。
Bitcoin options traders are bracing for a period of heightened volatility as large sums of money are set to expire on the derivatives market on recent Friday.
比特币期权交易员正准备迎接一段波动加剧的时期,因为衍生品市场上的大量资金将于最近周五到期。
Recent data showed that around $1.3 billion in Bitcoin options premiums will expire on Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, at 08:00 ET. This marks a significant increase from the roughly $660 million that was due to expire last month.
最近的数据显示,全球最大的加密货币期权交易所 Deribit 约 13 亿美元的比特币期权溢价将于美国东部时间 08:00 到期。这与上个月到期的约 6.6 亿美元相比大幅增加。
"We can expect a volatile session into the options expiry, especially with the market being bullish and having risen substantially over the past few months," said Nikita Patel, a crypto options trader at Deribit Options, in emailed comments.
Deribit Options 的加密货币期权交易员 Nikita Patel 在电子邮件评论中表示:“我们预计期权到期日将出现波动,尤其是在市场看涨且过去几个月大幅上涨的情况下。”
"There is a lot of interest in the higher strike prices, which could indicate bullish sentiment and expectations of further upside," he added.
他补充说:“人们对更高的执行价格很感兴趣,这可能表明看涨情绪和进一步上涨的预期。”
Institutions are also showing interest in the lower strike prices, which could signal a belief that Bitcoin is set to correct, Patel said.
帕特尔表示,机构也对较低的执行价格表现出兴趣,这可能表明人们相信比特币即将纠正。
Options traders are betting on whether Bitcoin will rise or fall to a particular "strike" price by a specific date. If their prediction is correct, they stand to make a profit.
期权交易者押注比特币在特定日期之前是否会上涨或下跌至特定的“执行”价格。如果他们的预测是正确的,他们就能获利。
Options contracts give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (in the case of a call option) or sell (in the case of a put option) a certain amount of Bitcoin at a set price on or before the expiration date.
期权合约赋予持有人在到期日或之前以设定价格购买(如果是看涨期权)或出售(如果是看跌期权)一定数量的比特币的权利,但没有义务。
Call options are typically used to bet on rising prices, while put options are used to bet on falling prices.
看涨期权通常用于押注价格上涨,而看跌期权则用于押注价格下跌。
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