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具体来说,比特币正面临投资者兴趣下降的局面,搜索量反映的水平低于最具挑战性的熊市期间的水平
Investors who might be anticipating a continuation of Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally to reclaim the $70,000 level might have to adjust their expectations, as the broader market sentiment seems to be indicating a possible delay in such a move.
预计比特币 (BTC) 继续反弹以收复 70,000 美元水平的投资者可能不得不调整他们的预期,因为更广泛的市场情绪似乎表明这一举措可能会延迟。
Despite Bitcoin’s recent surge and growing bullish sentiment, its path to reclaiming the $70,000 level might be hindered by several challenges. One key aspect investors need to monitor is Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its price above the $65,000 level.
尽管比特币最近飙升且看涨情绪不断增强,但其夺回 70,000 美元水平的道路可能会受到一些挑战的阻碍。投资者需要监控的一个关键方面是比特币将其价格维持在 65,000 美元以上水平的能力。
According to data shared by Alex Becker, Bitcoin is facing dwindling interest from investors. Search volumes for the leading cryptocurrency are reflecting levels lower than those seen during the most challenging bear markets.
根据 Alex Becker 分享的数据,投资者对比特币的兴趣正在下降。领先加密货币的搜索量反映的水平低于最具挑战性的熊市期间的水平。
An analysis of search trends indicates that while the crypto community might be perceiving increasing bullish sentiment, the broader market seems to be largely disengaged. Looking at metrics such as YouTube and Google search data, crypto interest remains at what Becker termed “worse than bear market” levels.
对搜索趋势的分析表明,虽然加密货币社区可能会感受到看涨情绪的增加,但更广泛的市场似乎基本上没有参与。从 YouTube 和谷歌搜索数据等指标来看,加密货币兴趣仍处于贝克尔所说的“比熊市更糟糕”的水平。
“It may seem like everyone is too bullish right now. You need to step back. On YT and Google crypto interest is still at “worse than bear market” lows,” he said.
“现在看来每个人都过于乐观了。你需要退后一步。在 YouTube 和谷歌上,加密货币兴趣仍处于“比熊市更糟糕”的低点,”他说。
The data shows that search volume dropped from its peak in 2020, when it hit the maximum search interest score of 100, to just 17, highlighting the extent of investor disinterest.
数据显示,搜索量从 2020 年的峰值(当时搜索兴趣得分最高为 100)下降至仅 17,凸显了投资者不感兴趣的程度。
Becker’s analysis suggests that roughly 85% of the retail crowd has left the market, indicating that most investors are bearish and have completely abandoned tracking crypto trends. He adds that for Bitcoin and the broader crypto space to regain significant traction, current online engagement must increase by at least 3.5 times.
贝克尔的分析表明,大约 85% 的散户已经离开市场,这表明大多数投资者持看跌态度,并完全放弃跟踪加密货币趋势。他补充说,为了让比特币和更广泛的加密货币领域重新获得巨大的吸引力,当前的在线参与度必须增加至少 3.5 倍。
Furthermore, Becker’s analysis points out that this disengagement signifies that while a vocal minority remains bullish, the majority is bearish, rendering Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies largely irrelevant.
此外,贝克尔的分析指出,这种脱离意味着,虽然少数人仍然看涨,但大多数人持看跌态度,这使得比特币和其他加密货币在很大程度上变得无关紧要。
Bitcoin’s all-time high to wait longer
比特币创历史新高需要等待更长时间
The sentiment around the digital asset also hints at what awaits Bitcoin based on market interest, as indicated by data shared by crypto analysis platform Santiment in an X post on September 29.
加密货币分析平台 Santiment 在 9 月 29 日发布的 X 帖子中分享的数据表明,围绕数字资产的情绪也暗示了基于市场兴趣的比特币的前景。
The platform acknowledged that Bitcoin has witnessed a 22% surge in value, sparking optimism about a possible continuation. However, this wave of bullish sentiment might be counterproductive to the imminent all-time high some in the market are anticipating.
该平台承认,比特币价值已飙升 22%,引发了人们对比特币价格可能持续上涨的乐观情绪。然而,这波看涨情绪可能会与市场上一些人预期的即将到来的历史高点产生反作用。
According to the data, Bitcoin’s positive commentary is currently at the highest point of the year, with 1.8 bullish posts for every bearish post. This ratio of bullish-to-bearish sentiment reflects the crowd’s enthusiasm for a swift rally, possibly to the $70,000 level.
数据显示,比特币的正面评论目前处于年内最高点,每条看跌帖子对应1.8个看涨帖子。这种看涨与看跌情绪的比率反映了人们对迅速反弹(可能达到 70,000 美元水平)的热情。
As Santiment observes, historically, markets often move opposite to the majority’s expectations. When overly positive sentiment arises, it can signal a potential pullback or stagnation.
正如桑蒂门特所观察到的,从历史上看,市场的走势常常与大多数人的预期相反。当过度积极的情绪出现时,可能预示着潜在的回调或停滞。
Excessive optimism can lead to diminished demand or profit-taking by larger investors, causing short-term downward pressure. While long-term fundamentals are strong, the market may need time to digest gains and reset before the next push higher.
过度乐观可能导致需求减少或大投资者获利了结,造成短期下行压力。尽管长期基本面强劲,但市场可能需要时间来消化涨幅并在下一次推高之前进行重置。
Bitcoin remains in the ‘Greed’ zone
比特币仍处于“贪婪”区域
The current market overconfidence is also seen on the crypto Fear & Greed Index, which is currently in the “Greed” zone, with a reading of 63. This sentiment highlights growing investor confidence, a significant shift from recent months of cautious or mixed sentiment.
当前市场的过度自信也体现在加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数上,该指数目前处于“贪婪”区域,读数为 63。这种情绪凸显了投资者信心的增强,与近几个月的谨慎或混合情绪发生了重大转变。
The Fear & Greed Index, which oscillates between extreme fear and extreme greed on a scale of 0 to 100, provides insights into whether market participants are overly bullish or bearish.
恐惧与贪婪指数在极度恐惧和极度贪婪之间波动,范围为 0 到 100,提供了有关市场参与者是否过度看涨或过度看跌的见解。
However, high greed levels can sometimes indicate overbought conditions and a potential market correction, as emotional exuberance rather than fundamentals may be driving prices.
然而,高贪婪程度有时可能表明超买状况和潜在的市场调整,因为推动价格的可能是情绪旺盛而不是基本面。
An analysis by Alan Santana supports the possible bearish sentiment. The expert noted that investors should anticipate a potential correction when Bitcoin forms a ‘major low’ in the coming months. In this line, if Bitcoin continues to trade below the $71,000 mark, the crypto will likely drop further, as this level signals sustained bearishness.
艾伦·桑塔纳 (Alan Santana) 的分析支持了可能的看跌情绪。这位专家指出,当比特币在未来几个月形成“重大低点”时,投资者应该预期可能会出现修正。就这一点而言,如果比特币继续跌破 71,000 美元大关,加密货币可能会进一步下跌,因为该水平表明持续看跌。
However, market analyst CyclesFan, in an X post on September 29, offered a dissenting voice, noting that Bitcoin is destined for a record high in Q4 2024. The expert observed that after enduring a five-month correction, Bitcoin’s price action signals a potential breakout to new all-time highs by Q4 2024.
然而,市场分析师 CyclesFan 在 9 月 29 日的 X 帖子中提出了不同的声音,指出比特币注定会在 2024 年第四季度创下历史新高。专家观察到,在经历了五个月的回调之后,比特币的价格走势预示着比特币可能会在 2024 年第四季度创下历史新高。到 2024 年第四季度将突破历史新高。
The correction phase, which ended in August when Bitcoin touched its 12-month moving average, mirrors a similar market structure seen before the bull market peak in 2021.
修正阶段于 8 月比特币触及 12 个月移动平均线时结束,这反映了 2021 年牛市顶峰之前的类似市场结构。
If history repeats, investors anticipate Bitcoin to rally in tandem with the ‘Uptober’ momentum, where the asset tends to perform better in October. To this end, some analysts maintain that if Bitcoin clears $68,000, it is open to claiming the $100,000
如果历史重演,投资者预计比特币将与“Uptober”势头同步上涨,该资产往往在 10 月份表现更好。为此,一些分析师认为,如果比特币突破 68,000 美元,那么就可以领取 100,000 美元
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